Glaxo and Roche shrug off flu research

Shares in Roche and GlaxoSmithKline could be hit by the withdrawal of support for flu medicines Tamiflu (oseltamivir), and Relenza (zanamivir) after the respected Cochrane Review research network said governments that stockpile it are wasting billions on drugs whose downsides outweigh their benefits.

The Cochrane Review research network, the gold standard in such analysis, and the British Medical Journal published an analysis of a hefty tome of trial data, which found no evidence that the drugs cut hospital admissions or reduce flu complications such as confirmed pneumonia, bronchitis, sinusitis or ear infections.

The review's main finding was the medicines have few if any beneficial effects other than to shorten the period of symptoms by one half day. The drugs are known to be associated with a risk of nausea, vomiting and headaches, and Tamiflu with psychiatric disturbances.

This analysis is based on data from 20 trials of Tamiflu and 26 trials of Relenza, known as zanamivir.

Some experts said however that there was still not sufficient research in people at risk of complications and during outbreaks of severe flu, and that the term flu covers a multitude of viruses.

Roche has refused to share its full data on Tamiflu with the Cochrane team in a tug of war that has lasted four years. The medical journal argues that government agencies have not been shown complete evidence about the drugs.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence said it would review its guidance on the use of oseltamivir in light of the Cochrane findings, and plans to publish new arrangements on the sharing of information in agreement with the UK and European drugs regulators.

Tamiflu sales hit almost $3 billion (£1.8 billion) in 2009 as concern about a H1N1 flu pandemic mounted. The UK government spent almost £424 million on a stockpile of 40 million Tamiflu doses while the US spent more than $1.3 billion.

Roche issued a statement saying it stood by its data, "reflected in decisions reached by 100 regulators across the world and subsequent real-world evidence demonstrating that Tamiflu is an effective medicine in the treatment and prevention of influenza".

Roche shares shrugged off developments with a 0.5% rise by 10am to 256.80p, while GlaxoSmithKline rose 0.3% to 1584.5p