The week ahead...
Following the hectic half-year point, the corporate calendar is somewhat becalmed next week.
Michael Page International (MPI) delivers a trading statement on Monday. The recruitment specialist is expected to build on the soaring international revenues it revealed in April.
Steve Woolf at Numis forecasts gross profit of £138 million, but with a modest slowdown in growth. He says the key drivers remain Asia and the US, both of which saw like-for-like growth of more than 50% in the first quarter.
Expectations for the trading statement from Premier Oil (PMO) on Tuesday are more conservative.
The oil and gas firm said in May that it was confident it would achieve production targets.
But Sanjeev Bahl at Numis says these figures are at risk given uncertainty surrounding a number of the company's UK North Sea developments.
"We believe developments delays could limit re-rating in the short term hence our move from 'buy' to 'add'. We have a preference for EnQuest (ENQ) which trades at a similar rating but with less development uncertainty."
The pace picks up on Wednesday with a series of trading statements from key retailers.
British designer Burberry (BRBY) revealed bumper sales in May as its handbags remained in demand and this success is expected to continue. Numis tips the firm for further growth as it expands and refurbishes stores.
At the affordable end of the market, Marks and Spencer (MKS) has been cautious with its comments over the last few months, despite a solid start to the year.
Andrew Wade at Numis believes food sales will continue to drive the business with like-for-like sales in other areas remaining flat. Wade is also optimistic about Supergroup (SGP), even though it has not had an easy year, saying: "We think the shares offer value if Supergroup can deliver on its potential."
Away from retail, but staying in the high street, budget pub chain operator JD Wetherspoon's (JDW) year so far has been "reasonable".
The company appears to be struggling to rebuild margins, due to difficulty passing on higher VAT, duty costs and food costs, according to Numis's Douglas Jack.
He says the firm is "on track for its fourth consecutive year of negative like-for-like profits, reflecting its difficultly in raising prices and volumes simultaneously, due to a highly price-sensitive customer base, at a time when costs and taxes are rising."
Silver comes into focus on Thursday, as Mexican miner Fresnillo (FRES) issues a production report.
The company's first quarter was muted and expectations are that more recent production will be flat but remain on track.
Cailey Barker at Numis said: "We expect to see some news regarding Saucito's start of commercial production and the commencement of construction at Noche Buena. We also hope to see some update on the PFS results for Juanicipio now that the legal dispute seems to have been resolved."
Returning to retail, trading statements are due from ASOS (ASC) and Mothercare (MTC).
The former is expected to report a low double-digit percentage increase in UK sales, while like-for-like sales are forecast to be marginally negative for the latter.
Meanwhile, preliminary results from Sports Direct (SPD) are due to be in line with the firm's expectations of beating its £105 million April 2011 EBITDA target. "We see little reason for the business not achieving this level following outstanding +8-9% like-for-like sales through the fourth quarter to end the year much stronger than expected," commented Wade.
The update due from precision instruments and controls group Spectris (SXS) on Friday is expected to be positive following the company's strong trading so far this year, with like-for-like sales up by almost a quarter in the first four months.
Scott Cagehin at Numis forecasts of 8.5% top line growth for the full year, saying "We believe that these volumes will translate into good profits growth given its high operational gearing but expect a return to more normalised sales growth through the year as it starts to face tougher comparatives."
In terms of economic announcements, the activity is focused on Tuesday, which sees the release of latest figures for British Retail Consortium (BRC) sales, RICS house prices, trade figures, Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index.
Howard Archer, chief UK and european economist at IHS Global Insight believes the BRC will be weak, thereby providing further evidence that seriously pressurised and worried consumers have stopped spending since the spikes over the sunny Bank Holidays.
He said: "The likelihood is that consumer spending will be muted for some time to come as household purchasing power remains under severe pressure from high inflation, low wage growth and tighter fiscal policy."
With the RICS survey, Archer expects the data will show the balance of surveyors reporting that house prices increased over the previous three months rallied modestly to -23% in June after relapsing to a 2011-low of -28% in May from -21% in April.
He predicts that the total trade deficit is expected to have narrowed marginally to £2.7 billion in May from £2.8 billion in April.
Good news is forecast on both RPI and CPI: "We suspect that inflation was stable in June as higher food prices countered a drop in fuel prices and some retailers starting their summer sales earlier to try to get hard pressed consumers to part with their cash.
Although consumer price inflation may well have stood at 4.5% for a third month running in June, it remains likely that it will reach 5% later this year.
Employment data follows on Wednesday. The labour market is currently showing resilience in the face of a struggling economy.
Friday is busy in the US as its Consumer Price Index data is released with expectation that it could rise to 1.7%. There will also be updates on consumer confidence and trade while the Empire State manufacturing survey is worth keeping an eye on after the negative impact its results had last month.
Monday 11 July
Trading updates
Michael Page
AGMs
White Young Green
Tuesday 12 July
Results
(Interim) Hyder Consulting, Luminar
Trading updates
Premier Oil, Computacenter, Young & Co.
Wednesday 13 July
Results
(Prelim) Supergroup
(Interim) Marks and Spencer
Trading updates
Burberry, EMIS, Thorntons, JD Wetherspoon
AGMs
BT, Carr's, ICAP, MITIE, J Sainsbury, Speedy Hire, Telecom Plus, UK Mail.
Thursday 14 July
Results
(Interim) Associated British Foods
(Prelim) Sports Direct
Trading updates
Ashmore, ASOS, Centaur Media, Mothercare, RSM, Tenon, Fresnillo, Rio Tinto
AGMs
Burberry, Hamworthy
Friday 15 July
Results
(Interim) Electrocomponents, Euromoney, Experian
AGMs
British Land, FirstGroup, PayPoint, Walker Crips
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Price quote
| FTSE 100 | 5,411.82 | -0.47% |
|---|---|---|
| ASOS PLC | 1,569.00 | -1.51% |
| BURBERRY GROUP PLC | 1,439.00 | 0.07% |
| ENQUEST PLC | 117.80 | -4.07% |
| FRESNILLO PLC | 1,317.00 | -4.57% |
| WETHERSPOON(J.D.) PLC | 375.00 | 0.40% |
| MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC | 348.90 | -1.13% |
| MOTHERCARE PLC | 160.25 | -1.23% |
| PREMIER OIL ORD 12.5P | 330.70 | 0.43% |
| SUPERGROUP PLC | 335.90 | 1.79% |
| SPORTS DIRECT INTERNATIONAL... | 297.30 | -1.72% |
| SPECTRIS PLC | 1,720.00 | -1.99% |
| MICHAEL PAGE INTERNATIONAL PLC | 357.10 | -0.17% |
| All data 15min delayed as of: 16:25:43 16/05/12 | ||
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