Interactive Investor

Winter Portfolio winners revealed

31st October 2014 10:47

Lee Wild from interactive investor

To find out about Interactive Investor's 2015 Winter Portfolio's, click here.

Days ago, Interactive Investor announced the launch of two seasonal portfolios with a track record of astonishing growth over the winter months. It's a genuine anomaly which has consistently beaten the wider market over the past decade. Now we can reveal the constituents of both portfolios and the rationale behind their inclusion.

What's known as the six-month strategy is incredibly simple; that's the beauty of it. Both the entry and exit points are clearly defined. It only requires that investors buy a portfolio of stocks on 1 November (or the first day of the month) and sell it on 30 April.

According to data compiled by Harriman House, publisher of The UK Stock Market Almanac, £100 invested in the FTSE All-Share Index continuously since 1995 would have grown to £231 (excluding dividends). However, investing that money only during the winter and staying in cash over the summer would have returned significantly more, £294. Owning stocks in the summer and cash in the winter would have turned that £100 into just £78.

That's why we have put together two winter portfolios. One is a basket of stocks delivering the most consistent gains over the past 10 years, the other is more aggressive, including companies boasting a slightly shorter track record, but with even higher potential returns.

Interactive Investor Consistent Winter Portfolio

CompanyTickerActivityTrack record (years)Positive returns (Years)Avg return (%)
Croda InternationalCRDASpeciality chemicals101018
Ashtead GroupAHTEquipment rental company10937
RegusRGUWorkspace provider10930
Henderson GroupHGGFund manager10924
HuntingHTGSupplier to the oil and gas industry10923

The five constituents of what we have called the Interactive Investor Consistent Winter Portfolio are, quite simply, the top five results generated by data for the FTSE 350 compiled by Almanac author, Stephen Eckett. First, we took the companies which had delivered the most positive annual returns over the past 10 years, then picked the best five performers from that list (see below).

In all, the Interactive Investor Consistent Winter Portfolio averaged annual growth of 26%, dwarfing average winter gains for the benchmark FTSE 350 index of just 5%, an outperformance of 416%. Only once has this portfolio failed to generate a positive return - in 2008. And that was also the only year it underperformed the FTSE 350.

Interactive Investor Aggressive Winter Portfolio

CompanyTickerActivityTrack record (years)Positive returns (Years)Avg return (%)
Taylor Wimpey TW.Housebuilder10855
Ashtead GroupAHTEquipment rental company10937
Bwin.Party Digital EntertainmentBPTYOnline gaming9731
PlaytechPTECGaming software8631
RegusRGUWorkspace provider10930

For the so-called Aggressive Winter Portfolio we have used a little more judgement, but have taken average returns as our primary data point. Minded not to include companies with an insufficient track record, we have chosen those with at least eight years of performance data, and only the companies which have risen between 1 November and 30 April at least 75% of the time.

This portfolio, which also includes the two best performers in the Consistent Winter Portfolio - Ashtead and Regus - is clearly more aggressive, but is still very credible. The basket of five stocks has generated an amazing average annual return of 37%, over seven times more than the FTSE 350.

 

Find out more at stockmarketalmanac.co.uk

*Offer ends 30 November 2014

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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