Interactive Investor

Best of the boards: Gulf Keystone, Quindell and Sainsbury's

14th November 2014 14:54

by Alex Newcombe from interactive investor

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Interactive Investor takes a look at Gulf Keystone Petroleum's trading update, which was delayed by two weeks. We also ponder Quindell's continued director share-buying, and Sainsbury's disappointing first-half results.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

What happened: Gulf Keystone Petroleum'strading update finally arrived this week after a fortnight delay. It confirmed that it will be able to produce 40,000 gross barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the tail end of 2014. So far this year, 4.7 million gross barrels have been transported to the Turkish coast, where all output is sent for export.

Its flagship Shaikan Field, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, currently has a stable production rate of roughly 23,000 gross bopd from five wells; 3 at PF-1 and 2 at PF-2. Works to connect the Shaikan-7 and -8 wells to PF-1 are ongoing and trenching work on the 15 km connection between the Shaikan-10 well and PF-2 is complete. Flow lines are currently being laid.

This month, the Kurdish Regional Government will make an initial payment of $75 million (£47.6 million) on account to producers for exports, with further payments to follow on a regular basis.

What users said: On the Interactive Investor discussion board, 'Rudy09' was disparaging of Gulf Keystone's actions, saying: "The delay from two weeks ago and the wording of the then RNS was misleading and has played into the hands of those who benefit to gain from a turbulent market place. We get a scant and vague RNS, not the expected IMS, a crash in share price, a heavily edited GKPTV where you 'recapped' before you had even begun, an ill-prepared webcast that no one can hear, and yep a further crash in share price."

'ssmi' was of a similar mind-set, questioning how easy it will be for GKP to be refunded, "unless a reliable payment cycle has been established."

Whereas 'The Bwana' failed to see negative connotations highlighted on the discussion boards, and said: "Can anyone tell me what the bad news is here today? This is a good, solid, everything's-on-track RNS."

'Nimomastik' believes this is GKP turning a corner, with this being "the first step in a one to three year chapter of share price value increases. I am going to suggest GKP will not fall below 36p unless things really go bananas in the war zone. Most likely we will see higher highs, and higher lows." Although the user stressed these are just approximations.

Quindell

What happened:Quindell'sshare price plunged by a fifth on Tuesday. With the only announcement another share purchase by boss Rob Terry, the slump can only be sentiment-driven. Even a wave of director share-buying in recent days has failed to prevent the sell-off. This follows Monday's news that the company's directors have actually been net sellers of the company's shares, not buyers as they'd claimed last week. This came as a big shock to many and the share price tanked as a result.

Three weeks ago, Quindell shares were trading at 169p, now they're less than half that at just 71p, their lowest since summer 2012. A complicated director share-buying scheme, whereby management borrowed money from Equities First Holdings using existing shares as collateral, confused the market and continues to spook investors. This is despite the directors using part of the loan to fund the purchase of more shares in the company.

What users said: On the discussion board, 'coldascheese' supported the directors buying, saying "they know [the] results will be great and are on a one way bet."

'takenoprisoners' also agreed with the director's methods, saying: "Firstly the market knows exactly what this deal is about but yesterday decided to play on it for profit and volume rather than see it for its true worth - an opportunity being taken by some of the board to take advantage of a deeply undervalued share price.

"Let the reality of this deal sink in. Let the dust settle after each buy and let the share price recover. Then buy more and keep doing so all the way through to the Jan update when all will be looking to get on board.

Then deliver on the numbers, announce a hefty special dividend and share buyback scheme and then, at an opportune moment, buy back the shares that you contracted out having banked a significant profit."

'Jbebit' has a different view as the user thinks the shares will fall "sub 50" unless fundamental changes take place. 'gravy' takes this one step further, stating that "this is the end for the outfit."

However, 'Johandesilva' believes that "this is not the bottom… [with a] market cap of £200 million this is still not a cheap company unless they produce profit in the form of cash left on the balance sheet that they have been promising."

'Michaelhighbar' says that the issue is that the shrinking share price could affect the company, due to a "lack of funding options", which would require Quindell to "look into the accounts to see if they have any major debt maturities coming up."

The user then advises that the company "rationalises existing assets" before continuing to expand, allowing the "cash flows to balance."

Sainsbury’s

What happened:Sainsbury's has experienced a fall in both sales and profits during the first half. It lost a total of £290 million in six months, although a large one-off charge contributed to this. In an attempt to combat this, they have cut spending. However, this is still expected to affect the dividend, with estimates that it will be reduced by approximately a third. Yet, this is still a relatively competitive dividend yield of 5%.

They do have some ideas of how to combat potential future loss, with plans including an extra £150 million in price cuts to combats competitors such as Lidl and Aldi. Furthermore, it plans to save half-a-billion in operating costs, which translates as annual savings of £150-175 million.

What users said:'Hardcore Uproar' did not hold high hopes on the discussion board, recommending a strong sell. He wrote that the results "should send 'investors' running.

"What Sainsbury's are saying is that the sector is over saturated, not likely to get better any time soon. Added to the fact that consumers don't appear to have that much money, prices are falling, costs are rising and margins are coming under heavy attack."

'Specialist101' believes that the "five-prong strategy" won’t give Sainsbury's much of an advantage. He said that "over the next two to three years [we] may start to see results. (By which time the competitors will have stolen all of their ideas and stolen a march.)"

'turkey10' was happy with the news released, saying "The results have been well received.

"A good well thought out strategy. No panic measures as suggested by others!"

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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