Interactive Investor

The week ahead...

21st November 2014 17:46

Alex Newcombe from interactive investor

Monday 24 November

Secure payments and customer service solutions company Eckoh will release its interim management statement on Monday.

Analysts' expectations: In October, Eckoh reported that it had secured a three-year deal with Cooperative Response Centre, a move which Northland Capital Partners reckons will help it generate a substantial increase in revenue, buoyed also by increasing sales momentum.

Economic news

This month's Nationwide House Price Index will be released, with another deceleration in the pace of growth on the cards. Investec are pencilling in a fall to 8.2%, which Victoria Clarke, an analyst at the brokerage, says is the weakest standing since December last year, "albeit remaining in solid growth territory".

The Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) will also explain November's inflation report to the Treasury Select Committee at some point this week.

Trading statements

Eckoh, GB Group, Accsys Technologies, Cranswick, Amlin.

AGM/EGM

Origin Enterprises, Manchester & London Investment Trust, Amlin, Avation, Amur Minerals Corporation.

Tuesday 25 November

Paragon will release its full-year results on Tuesday.

Analysts' expectations: Paragon's full-year results are expected to show both Mortgages and Idem Capital posting strong growth. Stuart Duncan at Peel Hunt reckons there could be a 16% increase in profits.

He anticipates "positive trends" in each aspect of the business, with expectations that "the Mortgage business [will] do £600 million of new completions, Idem [will] have completed further portfolio acquisitions, and the new bank to be making progress."

With Paragon currently trading at roughly 1.1x September 2015 forecast net asset value (NAV), he believes that this "undervalues the future growth in ROE (return on equity)", which is why he retains his 'buy' recommendation.

Chemring and Accumuli will respectively release post-close and interim updates on Tuesday.

Analysts' expectations: Chemring is expected to release its post-close update. For the financial year ending 31 October, Westhouse analysts expect fourth-quarter revenue to reach £125.1 million, over a quarter of the £480 million expected for the full year revenue. Furthermore, they expect net debt to be £141.4 million, while there is no forecasted backlog despite a third-quarter backlog of £417.5 million.

Analysts' expectations: Accumuli will report its interim results on Tuesday. Its October pre-close suggested there was a good order intake for the second quarter, in-line with expectations, says Northland. It has been recruiting to the extent that there are over 100 members of staff in their professional services.

Economic news

October's BBA mortgage report is expected to show a fourth consecutive decline in mortgage approval rates. This follows the RICS survey that showed another "softening in housing activity over the past month," says Investec analyst Victoria Clarke. She estimates October's approval rate to be down to 38,000 from 39,300. Despite the BoE's November inflation report suggesting a rise in activity, she believes that it will not be enough to stop the "slipping mortgage approval numbers just yet."

April's Mortgage Market Review, June's Macro-prudential policy announcements and less demand are all cited by the BoE as reasons for the decline in approvals.

This comes the same week as announcements of the BoE's Funding for Lending scheme and the Help to Buy (mortgage guarantee).

Trading statements

Accumuli, Severfield-Rowen, Signet Jewelers Ltd, Scapa Group, Renold, KCOM Group, Quintain Estates & Development, Essar Energy, De La Rue,Caledonia Investments, Severn Trent, Byotrol, AO World, Chamberlin, Creston, Mitchells & Butlers, Paragon Diamonds, Renew Holdings, Topps Tiles, Zoopla Property Group, Greencore Group, Cambria Automobiles, Kingfisher, IG Group Holdings.

AGM/EGM

Wolseley, Black Mountain Resources, Just Retirement Group, Wildhorse Energy, Pantheon Internat Participations, Conexion Media Group.

Wednesday 26 November

Media company Daily Mail and General Trust is due to publish its preliminary results on Wednesday.

Analysts' expectations: Roddy Davidson, an analyst at Westhouse, believes the main point of interest is the comparison between the increased revenue generated through online advertising (year-on-year revenue increase of 47%) against the long term, general decline of print media (especially newspapers). The RMS (One) risk modelling platform ran into delays, which caused an extra £5 million in operating costs and £185 million to its carrying value. This caused Davidson to downgrade his EPS prediction to 53.4p, while is revenue forecast is £1.8 billion.

Wednesday will also see heating and plumbing company Wolseley will release its first quarter report.

Analysts' expectations: Despite Wolseley only disclosing revenue and trading profit in its interim statements, Westhouse analyst Alastair Stewart expects the report to show "continued strength in the US market". This is because it receives 53% of its revenue from the US. Moreover, with the UK flat and the Eurozone weak, Stewart doesn’t see this improving, suggesting the situation could even deteriorate. However, due to US income, they expect shares to remain steady.

Economic news

The second estimate of GDP for the third quarter is due to be announced, with analysts predicting that there will be no overall change from the +0.7% suggested at the preliminary report, however they do expect there to be small changes within the figures.

Preliminary estimates put GDP for the third quarter at +0.7%, and analyst Phillip Shaw believes that will not change. This is despite recent figures showing that industrial production grew by 0.2% rather than the previously assumed 0.5% (in the GDP data). The data seemed to be accurate when it came to construction figures (+0.8% in the third quarter).

However, Shaw's forecast is dependent on "the latest services numbers, estimated at +0.7% a month ago."

He also forecasts full year GDP growth of 3.1%. His 2015 forecast is a rise of 3.0%, although this is with modest downside risks.

Trading statements

United Utilities Group, 600 Group, Private & Commercial Finance Group, Telford Homes, Hogg Robinson Group, Igas Energy, Findel, Patisserie Holdings, LondonMetric Property, First Property Group, Patisserie Holdings, Compass Group, Britvic, Daily Mail & General Trust, Thomas Cook Group, Wolseley

AGM/EGM

International Ferro Metals, African Barrick Gold, Forte Energy NL, K3 Business Technology Group, Draganfly Investments, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, Pure Wafer, Regenersis.

Thursday 27 November

Timber trader Latham will release its interim results which, although positive, are expected to be in line with expectations.

Analysts' expectations: In August's AGM statement, Latham reported 10% revenue growth, while margins were ahead year-on-year. This meant that trading was in line with expectations, say analysts from Northwood Capital, with a continued improvement in both timber and panels. They forecast that "shares are around 6% off their June highs and are trading on 13.3x FY15 with a 2.3% yield."

Trading statements

VP, Public Power, Digital Barriers, RPC Group, Palace Capital, PayPoint, Acal, Mountview Estates, Marston's, Impax Asset Management, Shaftesbury, SSP Group

AGM/EGM

Ingenious Entertainment Vct 2, Transense Technologies, Red Emperor Resources, Netcall, Ingenious Entertainment Vct 1, Global Petroleum, Ferrum Crescent, City Natural Resources High Yield Trust, Berkeley Resources, Avanti Communications Group, Allocate Software, Harbourvest Senior Loans Europe, Eclectic Bar Group.

Friday 28 November

Economic news

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for November is to be announced on Friday, with a further drop of one point forecasted. The GfK Index for October dropped by one point to -0.2. The climate for major sub-index suffered a bit more, falling by five points to zero.

"November normally sees a small decline in the index on seasonal grounds," says Investec's Phillip Shaw, which caused him to predict a further one point fall to -0.3.

Trading statements

Arrow Global Group, Pennon Group, Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd, Helical Bar, Tcs Group Holding, Zambeef Products

AGM/EGM

Aquarius Platinum, Gemfields, Mosman Oil And Gas Limited Ord Npv, Plaza Centers NV, Quadrise Fuels International.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.