Interactive Investor

AIM share tips for 2015

1st January 2015 00:00

Andrew Hore from interactive investor

Recent market weakness has provided some excellent opportunities on the Alternative Investment Market. Here are five companies that should not just prosper in the coming year but further into the future as well. This makes them excellent buys in the medium and long-term.

Journey Group (JNY)

129p

Airline caterer Journey Group has developed a new model in its sector and this gives it an advantage over its two main established rivals. The Los Angeles-based Air Fayre subsidiary does not operate its own food premises and instead it uses the premises of restaurants at times when they are less busy. There is a facility operated by the company nearer to the airport where specific meals are put together and then delivered to the airport. This is a patented process.

The foundation of the business is a seven-year contract with United Airlines in Los Angeles, which was subsequently boosted by the merger with Continental. The strategy is to grow by winning new contracts at additional US airports. Journey has to wait until these contracts come up for renewal before it can bid for them, though.

The weak dollar hit the interim figures. In the six months to June 2014, revenues would have grown by 5% on a constant currency basis, but they slipped from £19.2 million to £18.8 million, while continuing profit slumped from £690,000 to £596,000. The interim dividend was still increased by 10% to 1.375p a share. The balance sheet remains strong with net cash of £3.57 million, which can be used to finance another airport hub. House broker N+1 Singer shaved its 2014 profit forecast by around 6% to £1.95 million, still an improvement on 2013. The 2015 profit forecast is £2.35 million. North Atlantic Smaller Companies Investment Trust has taken a 7.49% stake, while Kestrel Partners continues to add to its stake which is currently 11%. These are knowledgeable investors that believe in the potential for the business.

The shares are trading on 12 times prospective 2015 earnings and a dividend of 3p a share represents a yield of 2.3%. If additional contracts are won Journey could do even better.

Regenersis (RGS)

211.5p

Regenersis is an international business and the downside of this can be when currencies are going against a business. The technology outsourced services provider has developed a strong track record and it continues to win additional business yet the share price has fallen back over the past quarter. The latest announcement of contract wins contains additional business for the depot services division with a range of customers in many locations across the world including HTC, Asus, Lenovo and Ingenico Healthcare Germany, which provides e-health terminals.

The real growth, though, is coming from offering added value services to customers through the higher margin advanced solutions division. This includes remote monitoring and testing and data erasure - a business Regenersis entered through the April 2014 purchase of Finland-based Blancco for €60 million (£47.1 million). The data erasure services are important in preventing ID theft and cyber crime and with the expected proliferation of machine-to-machine communications there should be increasing demand for these services. From next year mobile operators could get fined if they are hit by a major problem with data security and this could provide further impetus for the business.

Equity Development expects growth in profit from £10.4 million to £16.4 million in the year to June 2015. Regenersis issued additional shares for acquisitions and this will hold back earnings per share growth to 14%. The shares are trading on less than 12 times forecast 2014-15 earnings. On top of the growth in earnings there is the prospect of a dividend of 5p a share providing a forecast yield of 2.4%.

Regenersis is being valued on a modest rating for a company exposed to the high-growth cyber crime sector.

TLA Worldwide (TLA)

36.5p

Sports representation and marketing services provider TLA Worldwide is diversifying away from its core baseball player representation business into marketing related to other sports. This move will bear fruit in 2015.

The highest profile expansion is the elite International Champions Cup (ICC) being organised for Melbourne, Australia next July. Real Madrid, Manchester City and AS Roma have been signed up to take part in the tournament, which will be held in the Asia Pacific region up until 2018. There is a US version of the tournament which will continue. Melbourne Cricket Ground has a capacity of 100,000 and there will be three matches broadcast live to 150 countries. The event will generate cash for TLA and give it a foothold in Asia Pacific when previously it has generated most of its revenues from the Americas. The appointment of Dave Bialek enables TLA to become involved in sponsorship and in-stadia marketing.

The original baseball representation business also continues to grow and the group is cash generative. Net debt was $8.5 million at the end of June 2014 and this could be reduced to $1.1 million by the end of 2015, according to house broker Numis. A dividend of 1p a share would provide a 2015 yield of 2.7%.

A 2014 profit of $9 million is forecast, up from $6.8 million in 2013. The 2015 forecast was increased to $12.3 million following the interims in September. The shares are trading on just over eight times prospective 2015 earnings and there is potential for further growth from the original and newer operations.

Eagle Eye Solutions (EYE)

157p

Coupons continue to be a popular way of promoting products and services and Valassis, the company that processes the vast majority of them says that volumes have grown by 225% since 2010. Eagle Eye Solutions (EYE) uses mobile technology to help to promote brands and retailers and provide digital coupons that can be tracked to individual customers. This is a real-time service that is much cheaper than the standard promotions and paper coupons, which can cost 8p each to process. The technology also prevents fraudulent redemption of coupons.

Although consultancy revenues have been important in the past from this year transactional revenues will generate the vast majority of group revenues. There are normally monthly fees to be on the company's platform and a charge relating to the number of coupons issued. Eagle Eye will need to scale up its support activities as larger customers come on board but the underlying cost base is relatively fixed. That means that once the cost base is covered additional revenues can increase profit significantly. There are already more than 100 clients, some of which came with the purchase of the 2ergo mobile technology business when Eagle Eye joined AIM last April.

The Eagle Eye board is highly experienced and includes ex-Tesco boss Sir Terry Leahy, although this may not appear as positive as it did previously, former Airmiles boss Drew Thomson, former Virgin Media executive Malcolm Wall and ex-analyst Bill Currie. Bob Willett, who has worked as Marks & Spencer and Littlewoods, recently joined the board as chairman.

Eagle Eye is different to the other tips in that it is not yet profitable, but there is enormous scope to grow this business and then subsequently generate profits from the customer base. There is still £1.8 million left in the bank which should cover immediate requirements until the business moves to cash generation although it may depend on the rate of growth. Revenues could treble to more than £5.7 million in the year to June 2015 but Eagle Eye is not expected to make a profit until 2015-16.The share price has slipped back from the 164p placing price providing an excellent opportunity to buy, although there may be chances to buy at a lower level in the short-term.

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI)

17.38p

Optibiotix (OPTI) is developing health products using naturally occurring bacteria in the human gut. The focus is lifestyle ailments, such as obesity, diabetes and high cholesterol, and the strategy is to develop food ingredients and supplements because they will not take years to gain regulatory approval like a drug would. There are enormous potential markets for OptiBiotix, which reversed into a shell last summer and has enough cash for two years.

The positive benefits of bacteria in the gut have been known for more than a century, but in recent years increased research into the human microbiome has brought greater understanding. The likes of Nestle, GlaxoSmithKline and Johnson & Johnson have invested in this area.

The key for OptiBiotix is identifying the correct strain of bacteria for a particular treatment or supplement. Pre-clinical studies for the purpose of developing a supplement to reduce cholesterol identified one strain of Lactobacillus that appears to be robust and effective. Laboratory studies showed a cholesterol reduction of more than two-thirds for this strain. OptiBiotix has contracted the University of Reading to carry out studies on 50 people with high cholesterol and they should start in January with data published in the third quarter of 2015. If successful, a supplement could be launched shortly afterwards.

In early December, a weight management yoghurt that helps to make people feel full was exhibited at a conference in Amsterdam. Potential partners have had the chance to assess the product and there should be further news next year.

There are no forecasts for the company at this stage in its development, but just one successful product could more than underpin the current valuation. Chief executive Stephen O'Hara has previously identified market opportunities and built businesses on the back of them. Pharma company 4d pharma, which is also involved in developing treatments based on the human microbiome, is valued at more than £200 million but is a lot further away from developing a commercial product than OptiBiotix, which is capitalised at £12.5 million. Securing a deal with a multinational company for one of the potential products could help to propel the OptiBiotix share price higher.

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