Interactive Investor

How our AIM tips outperformed tenfold

17th July 2015 16:22

by Andrew Hore from interactive investor

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There has been plenty of activity in the AIM share tips of the year in recent months and in most cases it has been positive, including new contracts and partnerships. When we last reviewed the shares tips in April they had risen by 26%.

Further gains have been made since, and despite a setback at Regenersis, the portfolio of shares is up 36.5%, easily outperforming the FTSE 100 - up just 3% - and FTSE All-index up 4%.

Regenersis (RGS)

161.5p

It is probably best to start with the poorly performing company in the portfolio. Regenersis has been quoted for nearly two decades, originally known as CRC prior to a merger with Fonebak, and its outsourced electronic repairs business has always been subject to contract reductions and losses, as well as the greater bargaining power of its multinational customers, and these have hit the company's figures and the share price. That was the attraction of the move into higher margin services, particularly the data erasure business Blancco. This move has been successful, but it still has not been enough to totally negate the loss of a major client in the original business.

The depot solutions division lost the contract, believed to be with Nokia, after a competitive tender. The winner will consolidate the European repairs business for the customer. This will not have any effect on the figures for the year to June 2015, but it will hold back growth in profit this year.

In the year to June 2015, revenues are estimated to have risen from £197.5 million to more than £204 million, while profit is expected to jump from £10.4 million to more than £15 million. Earnings per share growth will be in single figures due to the large share issues used to finance acquisitions. A total dividend of 5p a share is forecast.

Last year, was the first time that the majority of profit came from the advanced services activities, and they will contribute an even larger proportion following the contract loss. Advanced solutions and Blancco, which includes all the software operations, will be reported separately from now on and they will continue to be the main engine of growth for the company.

The depot solutions division has an operating margin of just over 5%, while the operating margin of the other activities is estimated at more than 20% last year, and those businesses will continue to grow organically. This is why revenues are set to fall this year but profit should at least be maintained or even edge up.

The 2014-15 figures will be published on 22 September. Assuming a flat profit, the shares are trading on nine times prospective 2015-16 earnings and there should be potential for the company to do better. There are always concerns about whether all of the bad news is out in the open, but Regenersis still has a main business with high margins and strong growth prospects. The share price should recover.

CompanyTickerRecommendation price (p)Price (p)Change (%)
Journey GroupJNY129158.5+22.9
OptiBiotix HealthOPTI17.3835.13+102.1
RegenersisRGS211.5161.5-23.6
TLA WorldwideTLA36.553.5+46.6
Eagle Eye SolutionsEYE157211.5+34.7
Average gain+36.5

Journey (JNY)

158.5p

Airline catering services provider Journey Group has won a new contract with an existing customer that will widen the geographic scope of its US operation. This is important in growing the airline catering business because it provides a new base from which to add further contracts. The full benefits will not be seen until 2016.

Journey's Air Fayre subsidiary has worked for transport and logistics business Federal Express in Los Angeles since 2013 and this contract has been renewed for five years. The latest contract is for crew members and services for the pilot lounge at Memphis International Airport in Tennessee and it will also last for five years until September 2020. Most significantly, Memphis is the FedEx global hub and there are more than 1,100 flights each week on average. That compares to an average of 70 flights each week at Los Angeles airport, where in-flight catering is provided. The service at Memphis will commence at the beginning of September.

Once Journey shows that the model can be successfully replicated at Memphis it can add customers there and seek other hubs for its services. In the past, there has been talk of licensing the model and this could also become more likely.

At the beginning of June, Investec sold all but a few thousand of the shares it owned in Journey. The shares are trading on 13 times prospective 2015 earnings and this rating will fall in the coming years as the Memphis hub becomes more important. Still a buy.

Eagle Eye Solutions (EYE)

211.5p

Eagle Eye Solutions has added Sainsbury's to its customer base, having gained Asda earlier in the year, and this gives the digital coupons and promotions provider a market share of more than 30% in the supermarket sector. The Sainsbury's multi-year contract is estimated to be worth twice as much as the Asda contract.

Digital coupons are easier to track than the paper alternative, which take a lot of time and effort to process. It also means that the client can ensure that they have been used to buy the right product and not just handed over at the till to help pay for the shopping.

Sainsbury's will be using Eagle Eye's AIR platform, which covers campaign creation, issuance, redemption and reporting. This enables real-time offers to be made via SMS messaging and email. The campaign can also be monitored while it is in operation.

There were some installation delays in the year to June 2015, but revenues were 165% higher at £4.9m and organic growth was 90%. Transactions revenues accounted for four-fifths of the total. The loss was around £2 million.

Eagle Eye continues to lose money and cash is still flowing out of the company as the customer base is built up, but there is £4.3 million in the bank. That should cover the immediate needs, depending on the rate of expansion. Eagle Eye could breakeven this year.

The share price remains above the 200p where £4 million was raised in a placing during March. In the short-term, the share price may not go much higher, but the long-term prospects are still excellent.

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI)

35.13p

OptiBiotix Health is making further progress with its strategy to develop health products based on the human biome. OptiBiotix is identifying and using naturally occurring bacteria in the human gut to develop treatments for lifestyle ailments, such as obesity, diabetes and high cholesterol.

The company has signed a number of partnerships and contracts in recent weeks. The latest is a deal with the Madrid-based Instituto de Química Orgánica General (IQOG) of the Spanish National Research Council that will enable potential low calorie sweeteners to be produced, analysed and tested by the Madrid institute. The human biome-based sweeteners with the best potential will start human studies in 2016. The plan is to replace unhealthy sugars in food products with these sweeteners.

An unnamed multinational has an option over a potential cholesterol reducing project being developed pending the results of a trial. Any positive news about this option agreement could provide additional momentum for the share price. Another deal with AIM-quoted Venture Life could lead to product launches next year.

Helium Rising Stars Fund has cut its stake from 8% to below 3% in recent months, but the OptiBiotix share price has held up. There is estimated to be £2.65 million in the bank so OptiBiotix does not need to raise additional finance while it waits for the treatments to be developed. The shares have made impressive progress this year, but a commercial product would send them higher.

TLA Worldwide (TLA)

53.5p

Well-known investor Nigel Wray has been increasing his stake in sports agency and sports marketing company TLA Worldwide and his stake has reached 8.94%. This was part of the removal of a stock overhang as three former owners (including a TLA director) of LS Legacy Sports, which was acquired by TLA in 2011, sold nearly 8.9 million shares at 41p each in order to pay a tax liability. Lord Ashcroft has taken his stake in TLA to 12.4% on the back of these disposals. There has been a surge in the share price following the removal of the overhang.

There has been no trading news since the full year results. The International Champions Cup (ICC), which is being organised by TLA, will be held in Melbourne, Australia later this month. Manchester City, Real Madrid and AS Roma are appearing in this tournament. The Rugby World Cup to be held in England later this year is a client of Elite Sports, which was bought earlier this year.

The shares are trading on 12 times prospective 2015 earnings with a yield of 2%. The shares remain modestly rated and TLA has strong growth prospects.

These articles are provided for information purposes only.  Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties.  The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.

Disclosure

We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.

Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.

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