The Oil Man: Flash blog

WTI $48.53 +$2.27, Brent $51.92 +$2.67, Diff $3.39 +40c, NG $2.47 +2c

Oil price

A very quick flash blog today, there is little company news but some interesting things going on in the oil market. One swallow does not a summer make but I am beginning to sense a more positive mood in the oil market although make no mistake in the short term fundamentals remain poor.

Yesterday saw the EIA STEO which seemed to me to be moving into more positive territory, maybe even looking a bit more like the IEA outlook from last week which showed quite a large fall in non-Opec supply, their word for it is "stalls" which is what I am seeing. They are also seeing global oil demand increasing, by the most in six years, which could mean that the balance is turning round.

Finally in a speech yesterday the Opec Secretary General said that the market was "improving" and that some confidence was returning. All these are only straws to clutch at at the moment but I am definitely seeing some signs of a recovery, signs that are evident in share price charts of leading oil companies. On the subject of charts, the Brent price which I have been talking about recently is now not only clearly above $50 but well out of the lower trading range I have been following, watch this space…

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

Malcolm is a Founding Partner of HydroCarbon Capital, which provides independent advisory services to the Oil and Gas sector. He is a Director of the Maven Income and Growth VCT 4 PLC, a venture capital trust listed on the Premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange.