Why this airline is worth a look despite 30% fall

Apologies, but even the Bard himself might have been driven to sarcasm if he had been trying to make a few bucks in this investment climate. But complaining about my performance is futile - I might as well set myself on fire as a protest against the new pound coin.

It all started on Hallowe'en. The last day of October saw a choppy day on the markets as the FTSE 100 closed just below 7,000. The best performer was IAG, owner of British Airways and Iberia. Its share price climbed by more than 5%.

Then, the following day, oil prices dropped to their lowest level in a month - just above $48 a barrel - apparently on renewed concerns over OPEC's deal to cut production at the end of November.

Perhaps IAG knows something we don't (I've never understood why, when oil production is cut, the price tends to fall. The tried-and-tested law of supply and demand, anyone?).

Is IAG worth another look?

Anyhow, I had sold IAG at a profit in early 2014, and I thought I had been vindicated, as the price dropped from more than £4 to just above 315p.

More recently, under solid management with some serious staff, and with pensions issues now seemingly in the firm's contrails, the stock has fallen from a peak of more than £6 in January 2016 to below £4. Worth another look.

I was waiting for £1 for Lloyds, and 18 months ago at 86p that seemed realisticBack to Hallowe'en. The FTSE 100 goes into a stall, with even advertising giant WPP's great results failing to help out, and a poor showing from BP and Standard Chartered. BP continues its tailspin, seriously annoying its shareholders after months of great gains, while RBS and Lloyds are still in the doldrums.

RBS is no surprise, I've given up on it. But Lloyds is my fault, I suppose. In grim retrospect, I have broken two golden rules of investing: don't be loyal to a share just because you've made money out of it before, and don't ever be greedy.

I have said before that I was waiting for £1 for Lloyds, and 18 months ago at 86p that seemed realistic, but now it's back where it was in 2013. At 55p, my grandson Charlie will be wiping the drool from my chin before he inherits a quid a share.

The next day pharmaceuticals, including giants Smith & Nephew and Shire, also left skid marks on the way down, as concern grew over both changes to haemophilia drug treatments in the US and the NHS's procurement policy.

Brexit: a red herring

What's going on with the market? I have said before that Brexit is a gigantic red herring and that ultimately the establishment will never let us leave the EU - a view that gained some credence when the High Court ruled that an exit must be ratified by parliament.

Despite my consumption of Diageo's products and its defensive nature, the shares have slidThe military has always been over-fond of three-letter acronyms, and I am reminded of an old one when it comes to all the nonsense surrounding Brexit and its alleged correlation with market prices: CBE (catalogue of bullshit excuses).

Even deep concentration and a few sharpeners have failed to enlighten me as to what is causing this dip, however. I am alarmed.

Moreover, despite my increased consumption of Diageo's products and the firm's defensive nature, its share has taken a big glug of disappointment juice and dropped over the month from above 2,220p a share to just above 2,070p.

ITV's 'illogical' fall

Readers will be familiar with my long-term interest in ITV. I have been a fan of the share as a provider of dividends (which have gone up) and generator of capital (which has gone down).

But it has had a rotten year. It fell from 275p at the turn of the year to just below 170p at the time of writing.

This is even more illogical than the rubbish going on in the markets over Brexit. ITV has very successful franchises such as the awful X-Factor, and soon it will launch a similar show bought from the BBC, called The Voice.

In a bad winter, people will be inside, watching culture-free TV and shopping onlineOne hopes this will support the falling audiences for X Factor. ITV is the great commercial content provider in UK broadcasting and has a splendid cash flow.

If we are all to have a ghastly winter, people will be doing two things: staying indoors watching culture-free television and shopping online.

I don't buy high-value shares, but online retailer Asos was recently tipped at £52. It has an international customer base, no shops and an A-list loyalty programme, giving it solid sales growth.

As a hedge against a chill wind until the spring, I have sold Kames UK Smaller Companies, which has fallen by more than 5.5% this year, and bought more ITV. At least I'll have something other than X Factor over which to cry tears of frustration.

This article was originally published by our sister magazine Money Observer here

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.