Interactive Investor

Why housebuilders offer 30% upside

4th January 2017 17:54

Harriet Mann from interactive investor

The reward for taking the plunge into risky equities sometimes looks too good to miss. Prime minister Theresa May's imminent triggering of Article 50 has clouded the horizon for housebuilders, certianly, but the sector's tasty dividend yields, strong cash generation and 25% return on capital could mean 30% upside for share prices, the numbercrunchers at Deutsche Bank reckon.

While Britain's decision to leave the European Union came as a surprise, the real shock came from the stockmarket reaction. To reflect that, the analysts at Deutsche have adjusted their numbers to reveal significant untapped upside potential, with forecasts returning close to pre-Brexit levels. Pre-tax profits forecasts for 2017 have doubled, with 2018 numbers up by half and 2019 estimates up 20%.

But the sector is priced at just 1.3 times net tangible asset value (NTAV), which falls to 1.2 times in 2018. This "overplays" any risk to future earnings, says analyst Glynis Johnson, especially with return on capital employed (ROCE) worth up to three times its cost of capital.

Not only do the blue-chips trade with a yield over 6.5%, but their stream of free cash flow give scope for future upgrades - look to Barratt, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey, says Johnson. The mid-caps are flirting with yields of 4.5%, which will provide added support to valuations.

With new ministers in charge of housing and a new White Paper due on our desks any time now, the sector could be in line for a fresh bout of volatility. But investors should keep their heads and buy the dips, adds the analyst.

"We believe any weakness in share prices around this time should be used as a buying opportunity with the sector likely to demonstrate steady reassurance through the year with its continuous cycle of trading updates."

Admitting the sector trades "relatively homogeneously", Deutsche has just upgraded McCarthy & Stone to 'buy', joining Barratt Development, Berkeley Group and top pick Taylor Wimpey. Losing some of its shine, Bovis is cut to 'hold' as operational hiccups start to dent confidence.

Highest yielding blue-chip

Taylor Wimpey looks like it has the most to gain over the next few months, with a target price of 239p, implying 56% upside. It's also the highest yielding stock on the FTSE 100, boasting 8.7%.

"This meaningful, well covered yield in combination with the reassurance on future profitability and cash flow that its strong strategic land bank offers should become further appreciated in 2017 as investor nerves on the Brexit impact on the sector are proved to be overstated," says Johnson.

McCarthy is next in the pecking order with its target price of 211p suggesting the shares are worth 31% more. Investors have been wary of McCarthy's cautious customer base and lumpy completion timings since its IPO, which has weighed on sentiment.

But Deutsche reckons the shares are are "too cheap", especially as it continues to demonstrate its higher margin model and progress on its growth strategy. Its recent 45% slump - the sector's down only 20% - has taken the shares 10% below their IPO price, which has the Deutsche magpies upgrading the shares to 'buy'.

Barratt is trading below its sector average with a P/TNAV of 1.2x for 2017, which Johnson also flags as "too cheap". Barratt's strategic land bank is on the small size and its exposure to Greater London is certainly higher risk, but the housebuilder should lead the sector with its return on capital, thanks to its shorter landbank and expertese in public sector land. Not only does the 7.3% dividend yield turn heads but investors could untap 31% of upside.

The final 'buy', Berkeley, could be hit hard by changes to tax and mortgage regulation, the impact of stamp duty and Brexit negotations. But future completions in the run up to 2018 all have legally exchanged reservations, which eases most short-term concerns. Armed with a 7.1% yield and 20% return on equity potential, its 1.6 2018 P/NTAV again looks too cheap to Deutsche. It's share price could grow by nearly 27% if Johnson is correct, pencilling in a target of 3,559p.

It wasn't all good news in the 'buy' portfolio, however, with Bovis Homes given the boot. The cheapest in the sector, Bovis is the value play and is on track to realise nearly 30% of upside, but Johnson can't shake nerves relating to recent profit warnings.

Management has promised to increase the dividend each year, but it's not enough to convince investors to take the plunge, especially as they are already wary of the sector. The shares are downgraded to 'hold'.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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