Barclays shares hit glass ceiling

Barclays (LSE:BARC)

Barclays joins that disgraced group of shares who exceeded their immediate downtrend, then retreated below it again. Is it a sign the Trumpeteers, Brexiteers, Corbyneers or iScoteers might have a point. Driven by media hysteria, our last Barclays report focussed on misery potentials.

Now, about the only thing we feel comfortable mentioning is the level of hysteria by media which doesn't seem to report news anymore, just the tantrum of a spoilt child not getting its own way.

Since 2012 our office has been unsullied by daily newspapers, a choice due to realisation the only news tends be on the letters page whereas opinions are found on the front page.

And that's not how it's supposed to be. Plus, of course, Google News gives a page of actual headlines, insulating from the need to actually read the source. Aside - of course - from the (sometimes awesome) MATT cartoon on the Telegraph website.

We suspect trend analysis has never been more important. After all, had anyone believed the pre-Brexit-vote media, the FTSE should be somewhere around 4,000 points and Barclays share price down at 78p.

Despite media rhetoric, neither has happened and we're just about bored silly from searching for viable signs of doom. It seems, despite Scotland, Corbyn, Brexit, or Trump, life continues to happen.

So, how about Barclays?

Last time we wrote about them, we'd suspected above 235p would lead to 242p would lead to 254p. Thus far, the share achieved a high of 244.4p and, normally, we'd be cheerfully awaiting the next surge above this level provoking 254p.

But, as the blue line on the chart shows, the share managed to break trend for just a few sessions and has now been driven below again and this is always blooming confusing - the suggestion being that this trend isn't being treated as a trend.

We're not terribly alarmed at this, due to Barclays previously bettering the downtrend since 2007 and we know this trend was valid. When Barclays surged to the 242p level, it was reacting to forces since 2007 and the visual evidence tends suggest this approach was indeed correct.

For now, it appears a glass ceiling has formed around the 240p level, creating the scenario where closure above 239p is required to inspire growth to 254p next, and we'd expect some stutters when such a level is attained. Secondary, with closure above, comes in at a longer term 305p.

What's the requirement to now consider running shoes, the Adidas question?

Retreat below the 2007 downtrend would scare us silly, suggesting coming weakness to 178p, maybe even 119p if broken. And the nice thing with this scenario is it covers all the circled manipulation gaps since the share price was forced down after the Brexit vote. And, better still, presents a double bottom game potential.

But for now, absolutely nothing is suggesting such a drop! In fact, if the share were to even better a near-term 237p, we'd raise a lazy eyebrow with interest. Sometimes, trends which are not trends turn out to be trends...

We never suggested this nonsense is simple!

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.