Interactive Investor

Global dividend growth at highest level since 2015

7th June 2017 09:21

by Marina Gerner from interactive investor

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Global dividends rose to $218.7 billion (£169.7 billion) in the first quarter, expanding at a rate of 5.4% year-on-year, according to the latest Global Dividend Index from Janus Henderson.

This is the fastest underlying increase in global dividend growth since late 2015, spurred on by an improved outlook for the global economy, which has in turn helped boost company profits and led to more generous dividend payments.

Each quarter Janus Henderson analyses dividends paid by the 1,200 largest firms by market capitalisation and it found that dividend growth was strong across most regions of the world, except for Europe.

Previously in 2016, global dividends had flatlined, driven by subdued profit growth across various markets.

But in the first quarter of this year, companies have once again become more generous in terms of the amount of income they return to shareholders.

However, the research also found that there was a fall in one-off special dividends, which was particularly pronounced in the US.

At the same time the US banking sector, which used to be the richest source of US dividends before the financial crisis, is once again increasing payouts sharply, and catching up with the oil sector that has battled lower oil prices over the last two years.

Dividend payments in the US are more evenly spread than other parts of the world, so US companies contributed a disproportionately large share of global equity income in the first quarter.

UK dividends fell 5.3% year-on-year in headline US dollar terms, because they were dragged down by the weak pound.

But the research argues that adjusting for sterling's devaluation, underlying growth was good at 7.1%.

Half of this increase was thanks to an unexpectedly strong hike from mining group BHP Billiton, which is now profiting from firmer commodity prices, after slashing its dividend in 2016.

Alex Crooke, head of global equity Income at Janus Henderson, says: "2017 has started on a really encouraging note for income investors, at least if you look beyond one-off special dividends. Growth was broadly based across many sectors and countries too."

He continues: "The outlook for the world economy looks better at present than at any time in the last few years. That means companies can grow profits and dividends at a faster pace. At the moment the uptick is taking place more quickly than we anticipated, and is stronger too, so we are slightly revising up our forecast for the year, despite the big drop in special dividends in Q1.

"What's more, the slightly weaker dollar means encouraging underlying dividend growth around the world is not being so heavily disguised by exchange rate effects when dividends are converted back into US dollars."

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

This article was originally published in our sister magazine Money Observer, which ceased publication in August 2020.

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