Another Friday wobble for FTSE 100?

FTSE 100 for Friday (FTSE:UKX)

Despite it being the holiday season, the market managed to inflict a spectacular degree of humiliation this week.

We noticed, rather belatedly, the FTSE 100 was trapped between 7,300 and 7,400, produced a slick graphic and urgently alerted clients what was going on. Within hours, five sessions earlier than expected, the FTSE broke the trend above 7,400 points.

A pretty embarrassing oops moment ensued.

We've updated clients of our hurried rehash of the numbers as it appears the market doesn't intend to give out free gifts during the next six weeks of usual "pretend" moves across the marketplace.

Near-term, it appears anything above 7,435 should bring growth to 7,455, perhaps even 7,472 points. Unfortunately, due to the prior nonsense before 7,400 was bettered, the stop position is almost a "best guess" at 7,400 points.

To be completely comfortable, we'd prefer mentioning 7,304 as the stop position, which, frankly, takes risk/reward to new levels of stupidity.

What happens if 7,400 breaks? We're looking at weakness coming to 7,375 points with secondary, if broken, at an unlikely looking 7,320 points. If triggered, the stop can be at 7,435 points.

Finally, please remember we're talking about the FTSE above, not after-hours FTSE Futures.

Liberty Media (NASDAQ:FWONA)

Following the F1 world championship stitch up last year, our interest in GP has dwindled a bit, but it's hard to ignore the Silverstone weekend. We've also been wilfully ignoring Liberty Media, the folk who now own F1 as their NASDAQ listing is still "a bit new".

But... it's Silverstone, hopefully hosting their penultimate GP - we always wondered at a race track devoted to motorsports being unable to cope with people arriving by car.

However, upon hearing the folk who financially backed the NASDAQ listing have now cashed in, there's a good chance the price shall become interesting.

Liberty Media's price movements since launch in January have proven less than interesting, but there's some signs the share could surprise us.

Currently trading around $33.21, it need only better $33.50 to arrest the immediate decline and, in doing so, enter an area where some upward travel becomes possible. Our barometer if $33.50 bettered is to anticipate growth to a fairly lacklustre $35.15.

This is one of these 'key numbers' which, if bettered, will suggest the recent droop was a bottom as above $35.15 it appears sane to anticipate $36.9, perhaps even $38 in the future.

For it all to go horribly wrong, the share needs below $32.4 as weakness toward $30.50 makes sense with secondary $29.50. But for now, we're taking slight encouragement from the share price not being trashed despite the initial backers selling their shares.

In the future, it will certainly prove interesting when all F1 broadcasts are exclusive to Sky and advertisers see their audience exposure dramatically reduced due to a broadcaster charging premium prices to allow people to watch relentless sponsor/partner advertising.

Ferrari (NYSE:RACE)

Perhaps due to their less than grotty F1 performance, Ferrari are now outperforming logic. The market opted to manipulate the price above the highest we'd calculated - $76 (circled) - and it indeed appears a new trend has commenced.

The situation now is of movement near term above $93.20 bringing $95.30 into view with secondary, if bettered, coming in at $99.25.

While neither ambition is particularly spectacular, perhaps continuing positive results shall bring another upward manipulation gap and make our $99.25 seem conservative.

To spoil the party, the Ferrari share price requires a tumble below the red line ($85.50 currently). For now, it is viewed as having ticked all the boxes for $95.30 fairly soon. Hopefully they avoid doing anything silly at Silverstone this weekend.

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang, Shareprice, or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea. 

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