The week ahead: Lloyds, banks, Glaxo, Shell

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The week ahead: Lloyds, banks, Glaxo, Shell

There's something for every investor in the coming week as banks, pharmaceuticals and housebuilders queue up to tell us how business is going. Expect some big movers as a result.

Monday 23 April

Trading Statements

Midatech Pharma, Arix Bioscience

AGM/EGM

Globaltrans Investment, Silence Therapeutics

Tuesday 24 April

Trading Statements

Focusrite, Novolipetsk Steel, Proteome Sciences, Sportech, Osirium Technologies, Circassia Pharmaceuticals, St James's Place, Anglo American, London Stock Exchange Group

AGM/EGM

AFC Energy, Biome Technologies, Metro Bank, Empiric Student Property, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities, Frontier Smart Technologies, Breedon

Wednesday 25 April

Despite some big name numbers early in the week, it's Wednesday when the action really hots up, with Lloyds Banking Group's (LLOY) army of shareholders keen to know if the lender has done enough to break the shares out of a tight trading range.

Further to our previous review of bank sector results season, we've canvassed opinion elsewhere for an alternative view.

Bank sector margins typically improve as interest rates increase, but Lloyds will have to settle for 2.9% in Q1, reckons David Lock, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. That's lower quarter-on-quarter, but in line with management guidance.

Expect loans to be slightly lower this quarter than in Q4, says Lock, due to "run-off [of the loan book] and continued prioritization of margin over volume for the open mortgage book". Costs should be down on the quarter, but a higher year-on-year number will reflect the new strategic plan.

Don't expect any big impact from PPI or impairments, while Lock tips the common equity tier one ratio (CET1) to come in at 14.6%.

Lock still rates Lloyds shares a 'buy' but has trimmed his price target from 80p to 78p.

Glaxosmithkline (GSK) chief executive Emma Walmsley has been under pressure during the drug major's share price decline, but investors have been bargain hunting in recent weeks.

Big hope here is for Shingrix, Glaxo's shingles vaccine. Launched last year, it's already grabbed a huge share of the US market, and analysts at UBS think it "will likely be bigger, faster than people think", triggering a "significant" earnings boost.

"The GSK growth story is still all about Trelegy, Shingrix and Consumer margin expansion," writes the broker, repeating its 'buy' rating and 1,600p price target.

chart1

Source: interactive investor                  Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Trading Statements

GlaxoSmithKline, Fenner, Warpaint London, Whitbread, Tullow Oil, Persimmon, Antofagasta, Intu Properties, Lloyds Banking Group, Croda International

AGM/EGM

Personal Group Holdings, Tullow Oil, Glanbia, British American Tobacco, Avanti Communications, Croda International, Countrywide, AIB Group

Thursday 26 April

Barclays (BARC) results are up Thursday. Watch for a "material" drop in tangible net asset value (TNAV) quarter-on-quarter, says Deutsche's Lock. Blame it on IFRS accounting changes, a $2 billion (£1.4 billion) settlement with the US Department of Justice (DoJ), plus currency fluctuations.

Don't expect any news on capital distributions, despite the DoJ deal, and margins could come under pressure in a tough mortgage market. Management has already guided to a small reduction in 2018. CET1 is seen at 13%, net of DoJ settlement.

With oil prices currently trading at levels not seen since 2014 – Brent crude is still above $73 a barrel - shares in Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) have been stunning performers. Having retraced from January highs to the September 2017 lows last month, they're up 16% in the past four weeks versus the wider market up 4%.

The shares trade on around 13 times forward earnings, a premium to rival BP (BP.), and yield about the same. "If the dividend is sustainable, then the shares remain meaningfully undervalued," says Barclays.

Investors will want Shell to justify the premium in these first-quarter results.

High-yielding insurer Legal & General (LGEN) also goes ex-dividend.

Trading statements

Barclays, Telefonica, Coca-Cola European Partners, Shire, U and I Group, Touchstar, Air Partner, Capita, Domino's Pizza, Taylor Wimpey, Gem Diamonds, Synthomer, Meggitt, Elementis, Cobham, Kaz Minerals, Travis Perkins, Merlin Entertainments, Computacenter, Royal Bank of Scotland, Rotork, Royal Dutch Shell

AGM/EGM

Aggreko,Schroders, SDL, RIT Capital Partners, Just Eat, Admiral Group, Greencoat Renewables, Impact Healthcare Reit, LSL Property Services, Romgaz

Friday 27 April

Trading statements

Travis Perkins, Harvey Nash Group

AGM/EGM

TMT Investments, Travis Perkins, Merlin Entertainments, Grupo Clarin, Okey Group

These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation, and is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.