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What's in store today...
By Darshini Shah | Tue, 19th February 2013 - 01:00
Pendragon (PDG) will open the curtains on Tuesday with its final results.
Recent news: At the time of its third-quarter interim management statement on 30 October, the car retailer delivered an in-line performance, with third-quarter earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) ahead by £1.5 million year-on-year.
Analysts' expectations: Mike Allen at Panmure Gordon is forecasting revenues up 7% year-on-year at £3.6 billion with EBIT of £69.6 million. He is also expecting net debt to fall from £246.8 million to £203.4 million during the course of the year, implying gearing levels below 70% and a net debt to EBITDA ratio below two times.
"The shares have started the year very strongly with the implied valuation now in line with the sub-sector average despite having above-average balance sheet risk," he states, reiterating his 'sell' recommendation.
Valuation: The stock is trading on a 2013 price/earnings (P/E) ratio of eight times.
This will be followed by final results from Brammer (BRAM).
Recent news: 2012/13 has been a difficult year for the industrial goods producer, with Spain and France still difficult, but Germany and the UK improving in recent weeks.
Analysts' expectations: In 2013, Chris Dyett at Investec is expecting revenue progress, as further key account and insites are secured, and the roll-out of the tools and general maintenance division accelerates across the group's pan-European footprint.
"Brammer has significant upside if and when the recovery in industrial production comes in Europe, along with a strong balance sheet which should enable it to lead further industry consolidation," he says.
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) will then issue its full-year results.
Recent news: In the first nine months, global revenue per available room (RevPAR) was up by 5.6%, driven by higher room rates. The Americas were up 6.3%; Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) up 6.1%; Europe up 13%; and Greater China up 7.6%.
Guidance was for room count to increase by between 2% and 3% during 2012. At the nine-month stage, the number of rooms was up by 2.1% year to date, reaching 672,252 (4,573 hotels).
However, Sam Hart, analyst at Charles Stanley, cautions that growth continued to be held back by the closure of hotels that did not meet brand standards (particularly in the US) and a still-difficult funding environment for new hotel developments.
Analysts' expectations: Consensus expectations are for pre-tax profits of $551 million (£356 million).
Panmure Gordon's Simon French is assuming 2013 RevPar growth of 5% in the Americas, 1% in Europe, 4% in AMEA and 4.0% in Greater China. He is expecting the group to sell the InterContinental New York Barclay for $340 million this year and the InterContinental London Park Lane for $400 million in 2014.
"We are not particularly optimistic about the global macroeconomic backdrop but demand remains relatively robust in the Americas and crucially supply growth is virtually non-existent enabling hoteliers to push through increases in average daily rate," French says, rating the stock a 'hold'.
Hart also has a 'hold' recommendation on IHG, explaining: "Our expectation is that trading conditions in the global hotels industry will remain relatively benign through 2013 and into 2014, reflecting robust demand and limited new supply. InterContinental's strong portfolio of hotel brands and impressive new-room pipeline leaves it well positioned to exploit the favourable conditions.
"Following a period of strong share-price performance, however, the valuation suggests good future earnings growth prospects are largely discounted."
Valuation: The shares are trading on a 2013 P/E ratio of about 19 times.
Tuesday 19 February
ICON, Brammer, Morgan Sindall, InterContinental Hotels Group, Drax Group, AZ Electronic Materials.
Titon Holdings, Sunrise Resources, Tertiary Minerals, Weatherly International.