Interactive Investor Articles http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk Syndicates the latest Interactive Investor Articles via RSS 2.0. Unysen RSS Feed Generator - v2.0206 Interactive Investor Jamie Reid's sports betting blog - 22/03/10 Jamie Reid After spending the weekend licking his wounds, tipster Jamie Reid reviews last week's racing at Cheltenham, and looks forward to what we can expect from the festivals winners and losers in the next 12 months. Writing in this space last Monday I warned that 'experience cautions that favourites don't always dominate at the Cheltenham Festival' and so it proved.

But after a bruising week it was good to get the big one right and the Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander was not only the recommended 15-2 'joker in the pack' on Friday (along with a 6-1 each way tip for the Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino). I also tipped him as long ago as November 23rd when I was looking back at the titanic finish to the Betfair Chase at Haydock in which he so nearly beat Kauto Star.

'Given his fine record at Cheltenham' I observed 'where he was a winner at last season's Festival, odds of 10-1 about him winning the 2010 Gold Cup look a lot more appealing at this stage than taking a niggardly 6-4 that Kauto Star wins the race for the third time in four years.'

The Commander has been priced up at 4-1 with Hills to triumph again in 2011 and as long as his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies doesn't over-race him in the meantime, his aptitude for Cheltenham will give him every chance of landing the odds. I certainly don't fancy the two outgoing champions Kauto and Denman, who will be eleven next March, and I'd happily lay them both on the exchanges.

Imperial Commander's main rivals are more likely to come from the hot crop of young horses on the way up like the RSA Chase victor Weapons Amnesty who was winning over three miles at the Festival for the second year running and is 8-1 for next year's Gold Cup with William Hill.

Then there's Henrietta Knight's Somersby, who was a fine second over two miles in the Arkle Trophy but looks to be crying out for longer distances and is trading at 16-1 with Hills along with Long Run and Punchestowns, who remain chasers of considerable potential, the Irish Hennessy winner Joncol and the Paul Nicholls trained What A Friend, another potential big improver and on offer at 16-1 with Hills and 33-1 in places.

By comparison the 2011 Champion Hurdle market looks relatively straightforward. The new champ' Binocular finally lived up to the high opinion his connections have always held of him and as long as he remains sound he'll be very hard to beat again in twelve months time at 4-1 with William Hill.

I think their 8-1 second favourite Dunguib is still a horse with a big future but two miles over hurdles might not be far enough for him and John McCririck was entitled to question whether his current jockey Brian O'Connell is experienced enough to get the best out of him.

But I feel the Irish may maintain their stranglehold on the two mile Champion Chase in which they supplied the first two last week and I fancy the Arkle winner Sizing Europe, who had the speed to win an Irish Champion Hurdle in 2008, to graduate to the very top over fences too at 7-1 with William Hill.
 
Inter Milan, successfuly tipped to knock Chelsea out of the Champions League, are now trading at 100-30 for the trophy with Hills and, with CSKA Moscow coming up in the quarter finals, that looks worth an interest. I'm not suggesting they are the best team in Europe but Jose Mourinho's tactical acumen will make them hard to beat even for sides like the competition's 2-1 favourites Barcelona or 3-1 chances Man U.

I suspect this season's tournament has a few more surprises to come yet and I wouldn't totally write off the chances of the supposed outsiders either like Bayern Munich and Lyons who are available at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. Chelsea, who can only look on enviously and dream of what might have been, are suddenly on the slide for the Premiership with United the new 10-11 favourites with Hills and the Blues out to 5-2, the same price as Arsenal.
 
England were a winning tip on the handicap in Saturday's Six Nations game against France in Paris where the belated introduction of the in form backs Ben Foden and Chris Ashton injected some much needed pace and flair in to their play. But caution and conservatism still seems deeply ingrained in their coaching structure and without some big changes before next season, they have absolutely no chance of winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup at 16-1 with Hills.

£25 free bet with William Hill - Click here ]]> Jamie Reid Sports Betting Centre Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:34:00 GMT http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092447&section=JamieReidSportsBettingCentre http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092447&section=JamieReidSportsBettingCentre Gulfsands Petroleum bumps up portfolio Fiona Bond Gulfsands Petroleum is set to bump up its portfolio after striking a deal to acquire an interest in two Tunisian exploration permits and one Italian permit from AuDAX Resources. Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) is set to bump up its portfolio after striking a deal to acquire an interest in two Tunisian exploration permits and one Italian permit from AuDAX Resources.
The AIM-listed company, which on Friday rejected an unsolicited approach for a possible takeover, announced it plans to earn a 40% interest in the Chorbane permit, located offshore central Tunisia, in return for covering 80% of the cost of the first exploration well.
While a number of prospects and leads have already been identified within the permit - which spans 2,428 square kilometres - the most prospective is Sidi Daher.
The target, described as being a large tilted horst block, contains multiple potential targets and holds recoverable prospective resources of up to 80 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe).
Gulfsands expects to drill the Sidi Daher exploration well prior to the end of the 2010, with first production scheduled within the next 18-24 months of discovery.
In addition, the group will snap up a 20% working interest in offshore Tunisian permit Kerkounane, offshore Tunisia and offshore Italian permit G.R15.PU.
The two permits are adjacent and comprise a total area of 4500 square kilometres containing multiple prospects, the most significant of which is the Lambouka Prospect which is estimated to hold 270 million boe.
Looking ahead, the Kerkouane permit requires the drilling of one exploration well which is expected to spud mid June.
Gulfsands will earn its interest in both permits by paying 30% of the cost of an upcoming 3D seismic programme that will be used to define the first drilling location, and has the option to bump its stake up by a further 10% with payment of an additional 15% of the initial well cost.
Chief executive Ric Malcolm commented: "These onshore and offshore Tunisia blocks are within the area of focus of our Middle East and North Africa business strategy and offer a compelling opportunity that fits well with our growth strategy of gaining cost-effective high impact projects and operated production."
Nick Copeman, analyst at Oriel Securities, added: "These wells add to Gulfsands 2010 exploration programme and a success on either could be material. If a discovery was worth $8 per barrel of oil, (assuming a mix of oil and gas) the Chorbane prospect could be worth 130p per share and the Lambouka prospect 200p per share."
On Friday, Gulfsands slammed the preliminary approach made a day earlier, for being "wholly inadequate" and materially undervaluing the company. Shares in the company hit an all-time high of 312.5p on Thursday, after feverish speculation forced the company to announce that it had been approached.
Shares in the company rose 3.2% today to 328.25p.
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NB: CFDs and Spread betting carry a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. ]]> Spread Betting Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:09:00 GMT http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092437&section=SpreadBetting http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092437&section=SpreadBetting UK recovery set to be "slow and sluggish" Rhian Nicholson The UK is in for a "slow and sluggish" economic recovery which will undershoot government growth predictions, according to economists. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is predicting fragile growth of 1% in 2010: starting at 0.3% and 0.4% in the first two quarters of the year before rising to 0.5% in the second half.
The end of stimulus measures - including the VAT reduction and the car scrappage scheme - will weigh on the pace of recovery, it says. Growth is then forecast to rise to 2.5% in 2011.
Meanwhile, economists at the Ernst & Young ITEM Club have warned that government growth forecasts at 1.25% and 3.5% next year are too bullish with consumer spending and business investment still remaining very weak.
Richard Lambert, CBI director-general, said: "The economic outlook is improving, but the lack of a clear driver for growth will make for a bumpy ride in the months ahead.
"To convince international investors that the spiralling budget deficit will not derail the economy, the government must set out a credible plan to balance the books by 2015/16, two years earlier than currently planned."
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club said chancellor Alistair Darling needs to find another £10 billion through a "credible detailed and more aggressive plan".
However, the record budget deficit is likely to be less than the £178 billion predicted in the pre-Budget after better-than-expected public finance figures amid falling unemployment and a boost from the bankers' bonus supertax.
Government borrowing is now expected to undershoot forecasts by between £5 billion and 10 billion.
Over the weekend, Darling reiterated comments that there will be no "giveaways" in Wednesday's "sensible and workmanlike" Budget.
He appeared to rule out the prospect of a VAT rise to 20%, claiming that the planned increases in national insurance contributions are a "better way" of reducing the deficit.
He also ruled out any further rises to the top rate of tax.
However, one plan to emerge from the Treasury is the launch of a £2 billion state- backed "green investment bank" which will be half funded by taxpayers and half funded by the private sector for environmental projects.
These will include high-speed rail lines, offshore wind farms and nuclear power stations. ]]> Markets Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:21:00 GMT http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092425&section=Markets http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092425&section=Markets Understanding multi-manager funds Sam Barrett Investors with smaller ISA pots can achieve healthy diversification through a variety of strategies. Sam Barrett explains the multiple-choice options. Read Money Observer's introduction to its guide to ISAs for 2010.

With an objective of delivering topnotch performance by picking the best fund managers whatever the market conditions, multimanager funds should have fared well in the volatile markets of the last three years. But while the strategy worked well for some, it appears to have let others down completely.

This can be seen in performance figures from Lipper. For instance, the top performing multimanager fund in the balanced managed sector over three years to the end of 2009, the CF Miton Special Situations Portfolio, delivered a return of 18.9% against an average for the sector of 5.3%. But, at the other end of the table, the worstperforming multimanager fund in the sector, New Star Balanced Portfolio, was down 20.2%.

Why invest?

While it might hurt to be holding a losing fund, Richard Philbin, chief investment officer at Architas MultiManager, warns against focusing solely on performance when it comes to multimanager funds. "We want investors to view our funds as a longterm investment solution. They should feel confident that they're not being exposed to more volatility than they expected just because it delivers performance."

Certainly, reasons for holding multimanager funds are broader than chasing performance. Martin Bamford, chartered financial planner at Informed Choice, says he would recommend multimanager in a number of circumstances.

"If someone has a small amount to invest, a multimanager fund can get them good diversification quickly. Likewise, where someone doesn't want to be actively involved in their investment decisions then multimanager can take care of all of the asset allocation decisions for them," he explains.

Although Bamford prefers multimanager for smaller investors, they can also be used within a larger portfolio. Philippa Gee, head of marketing and communications at investment house T. Bailey, says they can be used as core holdings. "A larger investor could have multimanager funds to get diversified exposure to markets and then invest in more specialist funds to get concentrated exposure to the areas they believe will perform strongly," she adds.

What's available?

There is plenty of choice on offer if you're looking for a multimanager fund. According to the Investment Management Association (IMA), there are 369 multimanager funds available in the UK. These can be found mainly in the cautious, balanced and active managed sectors although other funds also sit in more targeted sectors such as UK equity income. Between them they have netted just short of £40 billion of investors' cash.

Although multimanager allows you to access a range of assets, Bamford believes this approach is best suited to equities. "This is really where the most value can be added by picking different management styles and adjusting allocation to suit market conditions."

Squeezing out this value isn't so easy for other asset classes. For instance, in fixed interest there is much less choice available so fund managers, as well as multimanagers, can struggle to add value.

But this hasn't stopped management groups from exploring other multimanager opportunities. For example, at the beginning of the year, T. Bailey launched a passive multimanager fund, T. Bailey Growth Fund Lite. Gee explains: "It has the same asset allocation as our growth fund, but rather than pick actively managed funds we'll pick trackers and exchange traded funds to make up the portfolio."

Double charges

Another interesting feature of the T. Bailey launch is that it puts a limit on the annual cost of investing by capping the total expense ratio (TER) at 0.99%. This addresses one of the main criticisms of the multimanager approach: the double layer of charges.

Although multimanagers are able to secure significant discounts when investing in other funds, the TERs on these funds often nudge 2% a year. For example, the Architas MM Growth Portfolio has an annual management charge of 1.80% but other costs push the TER up to 2.01%.

While hefty charges can be a handicap to performance, Tim Cockerill, head of research at financial planning firm Rowan & Co, advises that investors don't get hung up on them. "If the performance is there, it's worth paying extra," he says.

Neither is it always necessary to pay over the odds. While T. Bailey is capping its passive multimanager TER at 0.99%, you can access active management through multimanager investment trust Witan, which has a TER of 0.70%.

Picking a performer

When it comes to picking a multimanager fund, the huge number of funds available means that research is essential. Cockerill explains: "Multimanager funds appeal to investors who want to let someone else make the decisions about where and with whom they should be investing. Ironically, the amount of choice that's available now means that you have to do as much homework picking a multimanager as you did before they were available."

For starters, it's important to know where you're investing and the level of risk you'll face. Philbin says you need to look beyond the sector label in which the fund sits. "There can be huge variance in the portfolio makeup of multimanager funds within a sector," he explains.  

As an example, he points to the cautious managed sector. The IMA permits funds in this sector to have equity exposure of up to 60% and requires at least half of the portfolio to be in sterling or euro. "You could argue that 60% equity exposure isn't particularly cautious to start with, but what if this includes a large chunk of emerging markets or technology? Is it still cautious?"

Philbin adds: "I've seen research from Distribution Technology, using its system to rate funds from one to 10 according to risk, where funds in the cautious managed sector varied from three to eight. Because of this, make sure you have a good look at the portfolio before you select a fund."

Once you've found a portfolio that suits your investment objectives and appetite for risk, analysing performance will help you pick a winner. "Look at the fund's performance against that of the benchmark. Most funds will outperform the benchmark at some point, but you want to see it pulling away and delivering that extra return," Cockerill explains.

This article was taken from the march 2010 edition of Money Observer ]]> SIPPs Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:47:00 GMT http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092408&section=SIPPs http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092408&section=SIPPs Virgin steps up bid for RBS branches Steve Dinneen of CityAM Virgin Money is stepping up its plan to bid for 320 Royal Bank of Scotland branches with a book value of around £2 billion, as the 6 April deadline approaches. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) branches with a book value of around £2 billion.
The firm confirmed it has hired Greenhill to help prepare a bid before the 6 April deadline for submissions of interest. It hopes to become a major player in the internet banking sector.
The news will be welcomed by the government, which is desperate to inject more competition into the banking sector.
It had faced an embarrassing situation in which the Spanish giant Banco Santander (BNC) appeared to be the only credible option for buying the retail banking outlets.
Now National Australia Bank, which owns Clydesdale Bank and another Spanish bank BBVA, looks set to compete for the branches.
One banking analyst told CityAM Virgin is still the outsider but questioned the value of the branches to Santander.
He said: "The government will be breathing a sigh of relief over this as [it has] been pushing the increased competition agenda. But it's going to be tough for Virgin.
"At the end of the day, it will come down to who can get the most value out of it - and who makes the biggest bid. UKFI [the body set up to manage the government's shareholdings in bailed-out banks] will be seeking to maximise the value for the taxpayer. I question how much more coverage Santander needs.
"They would need significant holes in their portfolio for this to represent great value for them."
Greenhill is working alongside Quayle Munro to calculate the value of the deal for Virgin and put together a bid. Santander is being advised by Credit Suisse and Lazard.
National Australia Bank is being advised by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. ]]> Markets Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:31:00 GMT http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092407&section=Markets http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?article_id=10092407&section=Markets