Recent comments

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: In denial   2 years 4 weeks ago

    Things are beginning to change.
    GW may becoming back on the field with community management.
    They have registered some fresh FB pages, with requests for FAQ (I've never understood how they could deal without any social network support...) for the main games WH40K, and Age of Sigmar.

    The fans have also spotted a new community page dedicated to specific codex (= specific range of miniatures) such as :

    + starter sets for beginner, recruiting new players, etc...

    Maybe the new management has taken into account the player base needs... and it shall help the company with better results.

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: In denial   2 years 4 weeks ago

    Games Workshop takes pride in the fact they do not do any market research. That alone should send any investor with common sense running away the other direction. Whatever small profits they rake now come from their own body consuming the fat and the muscle in its advanced stages of starvation. In the long run its going to make things much worse for them.

  • Reply to: Howden Joinery: As simple as rolling out new depots   2 years 5 weeks ago

    This share has been on my watch list for 4 years ( and yes, I wish I had got in then!). I am still tempted but over exposure in this area of the market stops me for now. As for re investment in manufacturing, there is still scope to branch in to, as yet untapped by Howdens, markets within the joinery sector in the u.k. which, tightening building regulations are creating in the window/ external door sector... Interesting as a lot of the traditional small joinery shops find it difficult to make a product that can conform to C.E regulations, Building regulations on energy performance, Building regulations on strength and security and still produce a product that is different enough to gain a market advantage.
    The market is ripe for a lean manufacturer with a short lead time to produce windows/ external door sets to given sizes. I would not be surprised at all if Howdens are not exploring this.

  • Reply to: Dart: Silent activist says much about airline   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Thanks for the reminder Maynard.They only said they would welcome it! Not that they had actually achieved it yet...

  • Reply to: Quartix: Love at first sight   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Thanks Apad. Management seems to be a big plus. I'm visiting them soon. Care to elaborate on the back office functions? Do you mean fleet management: ?

  • Reply to: Quartix: Love at first sight   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Hi Dan, I don't know. I think one of the advantages of Quartix is its fixed into the vehicle and therefore pretty tamper proof. The systems you describe might be open to misuse - what's to stop you using it when you are a passenger in another car, or switching it off, or just leaving your phone at home? I'm visiting Quartix soon, I'll ask them about it.

  • Reply to: Quartix: Love at first sight   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Dear Richard,

    The only concern is that now certain companies, Aviva for one, have introduced an app for smartphones that allows your phone to be used as a blackbox essentially. The information provided by your phone about speed of travel, braking patterns etc. is all relayed back to the company. They then use this to alter premiums.

    This seems like an elegant solution that could potentially make the manufacturers of blackbox technology obsolete. Insurance companies can skip out the middleman and since young drivers especially rarely go anywhere without their phone, it looks a viable idea.

    Do you think this could have an effect of Quartix?



  • Reply to: Dart: Silent activist says much about airline   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Crystal Amber results out today:

    On Dart:

    "Dart Group plc ("Dart")

    Dart is the parent group of leisure airline Jet2 and fresh produce distributor Fowler Welch.

    On 19 November 2015, Dart reported strong increases in turnover and profits for the six months to 30 September 2015. During the period Dart announced orders for a total of 30 new Boeing 737-800NG aircraft. In our view this reflects confidence in the growth of the airline operation.

    We would welcome further engagement with Dart's board and management to provide a deeper understanding of the business and its potential. We believe that a wider understanding of the business in the investment community would improve the shares' rating."

    Presumably 'further engagement' means Crystal has since engaged with Dart following the silence at the AGM.

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: In denial   2 years 5 weeks ago

    google karl oyston and blackpool fc.

    i remember when GW was all about the customer. i remmeber playing 1.50 for a blister of snotlings. i could afford that with my pocket money.

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: In denial   2 years 5 weeks ago

    Gamesworkshop seem to run their company like Karl Oyston runs Blackpool Football Club. The customer is always wrong.

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: Inflection point   2 years 6 weeks ago

    The problem is that Age of Sigmar just isn't going to be profitable. Not unless some massive changes occur with regards to rules and armies. The players purchasing the models right now aren't interested in the changes, and new players still think getting into the model army business is too difficult or complex, despite simplifications.

    Changing schedules is a good idea though, and I would've thought that was already the case that their stores were kept open longer than the norm.

  • Reply to: Quartix: Love at first sight   2 years 6 weeks ago

    Bought QTX a couple of times before the recent lighting of the afterburners.

    Based on two things:
    1 The straightforwardness of management presentations.
    2 The damascene realisation that the data generated fed into all sorts of back office functions via QTX software. It ain't just a spy in the cab.


  • Reply to: Games Workshop AGM: A relentless profit machine   2 years 6 weeks ago

    While I do agree with you on the miniature quality, some of the earlier plastics are really not great. The more recent plastics have been much better and their metal and resin models are generally very good.

    However, in terms of game balance and elegance, I can only assume you have not played much Warmachine became both are excellent compared to pretty much any other miniature system in the market place. When you see high level games that are recorded, there is an element of very good player skill, knowledge and model placement cancelling each other out. This can lead to some fairly attentional games, which maybe don't make the best spectacle in terms of game play. Go and watch a really good player against an average player, and you will see some really nuanced moves and tactics. It is a bit like watching Olympic level fencing, it looks pretty easy and they seem to just be running at each other, waving their swords about a bit unless you understand the sport in a more detail to appreciate all the features of a match.

    Ultimately though, if it's not for you then don't play it. There are plenty of other games to play that might be more to your liking, but don't be so quick to dismiss Warmachine.

  • Reply to: Trading our way to FTSE 45,000   2 years 8 weeks ago

    Richard and I discussed how oil peaked in 2008 and that gold and most commodities peaked in 2011. As you are aware, my book is about changes in sentiment specifically related to the stock market and the resultant peaks and troughs in price. In it I talk about how the deflating commodities bubble will eventually fuel the next secular stock bull market:

    “Although not shown in the Balenthiran Cycle, I am forecasting a peak of the secular commodities bull market in 2015. I believe that this is likely to cause the final crisis in the stock bear market and the subsequently deflating commodities bull market will form the basis of the new secular stock bull market.”

    Whilst most miners and oil explorers share prices peaked in 2011 along with the underlying commodity, investor sentiment towards miners and oil explorers drastically changed in 2015 and my Dow Jones Industrial Average and FTSE 100 top prediction of 15th May 2015 worked out very well as a place to sell.

    I am happy to accept I was wrong about the commodities top being in 2015, but the fallout accelerated in 2015 and continues to negatively impact stock markets, and the FTSE 100 in particular. I stand by my claim that “the subsequently deflating commodities bull market will form the basis of the new secular stock bull market”.

    People have to make their own investment decisions that suit their attitude to risk. I don’t trade commodities as they are far too volatile. I also don’t short as having an open short position makes me feel uneasy. I only trade UK stocks to remove the FX volatility and I am not a big fan of leverage either (although I have opened a CFD account). Therefore what I am left with is a SIPP with a long only, unleveraged UK focussed investing strategy, when being in cash to avoid big correction is a conscious investment decision. This is where my 6% gain came from.

    However I don’t have a time machine or a crystal ball and do not know what the future will bring (as I am sure you have seen I make very clear in my book). I am however using cycle analysis to inform my investment decisions and hope that my book will be of interest to others and encourage them to do their own reading around the subject.

  • Reply to: Dewhurst: AGM surprise is a warning   2 years 8 weeks ago

    One of the directors speculating - obviously they get a flavour for where the keypads are bound from the keys.

  • Reply to: Dewhurst: AGM surprise is a warning   2 years 8 weeks ago

    On keypads, what led you to write "it may have been selling a lot to Russia" please? Thank you for the good article.

  • Reply to: The next bear market low is on 22 May   2 years 8 weeks ago

    The peaks and troughs apply equally well to the S&P 500 (.INX) and FTSE 100 (UKX) as they do to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), a quick look at the Google Finance 10 years chart (using compare) illustrates this (ticker codes in brackets) .

    As Richard says, my cycle is about sentiment (bull and bear) and not the magnitude of price movement. Cyclical bear markets can be sideways moves overall (containing a large drop) over a period of time (2011 – 2013), or a large drop over the whole time period instead (2000 to 2002).



  • Reply to: Trading our way to FTSE 45,000   2 years 8 weeks ago

    Did he predict the bull market in commodities would end in 2015?
    Look at the chart:
    Only 4 years off.
    Hopeless Kerry.

  • Reply to: The next bear market low is on 22 May   2 years 8 weeks ago

    Kerry had better speak for himself, but my impression is that the pattern is similar, peaks and troughs occur at the same time, although their magnitude is different. He believes his cycle can tell you when it's a good time to be in the market and out of it. He doesn't claim it will tell you how good or bad it will be!

  • Reply to: The next bear market low is on 22 May   2 years 9 weeks ago

    You'd have to differentiate between the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 as they are different indices with different patterns I would imagine. And from a valuation point of view they are at very different points in their respective valuation "cycles". For example the S&P 500 has just come off of near-bubble valuations while the FTSE 100 is below historically normal valuation ratios.

    I'd be interested to know if Kerry has different forecasts for the two indices. I haven't read his book so apologies for my obvious ignorance.

  • Reply to: The next bear market low is on 22 May   2 years 9 weeks ago

    Hi Richard,

    Thanks for the opportunity to revisit my forecasts 3 years on and also thanks for lunch. As you say, the criticism is that with only three cycles to go on, there isn’t much data to back up my cycle. But within the broader 17.6 secular year cycle, the twists and turns of the 4.4 year cyclical bull markets and 2.2 year cyclical bear markets demonstrate the validity of the cycle. It’s ability to forecast future peaks and troughs is the true test and 2015 has been a good one.

    The FTSE has moved sideways for 16 years (with massive swings up and down) and if my cycle holds true we have two more years of sideways movement before the next great bull market gets underway and we say good bye to FTSE 6000 forever.



  • Reply to: Wynnstay: Sell-off achieves fair value   2 years 9 weeks ago

    Nice summary Richard;

    Basic EPS of 34.66p gives an PE of 13 at the currect bid price of 4.50

    Wynnstay is a long standing share in my SIPP - strong balance sheet, good dividend growth, scope for organic growth. Speaking as a vet this is an ideal share to tuck away without worrying about it ! I have just added another 900 shares and recommend you do the same. Brexit or no Brexit, Wynnstay will continue to trade profitably

  • Reply to: Games Workshop: In denial   2 years 9 weeks ago

    On the topic of the Sydney store. I hear conflicting reports, some tell me its making more profit than ever yet i never see it full anymore since they renovated and changed the management. Thursdays and Saturdays used to be times where the shop was so full there were no spare seats at the hobby tables or spare gaming tables. Now much of this post will be negative and if you can keep reading till the end i will finish with the positives.

    All the old guard (who were in the store multiple days a week playing games, painting and buying copious amounts of minis, paint, novels etc) have left. They have migrated to the good games chain hobby store directly above Warhammer Sydney. Many have moved onto other product ranges such as X-wing and Infinity, while others have stayed with the hobby range but now buy almost all their product through 3rd party retailers where they can get a 10-30% discount on the price range.

    All of them complain about the pricing, however mainly their complaints are to do with how the Warhammer:Sydney store has changed. Where previously there was 6 6"x4" gaming tables in the bunker and in the front of the shop: 2 6"x4" gaming tables, 3 4"x4" introductory tables, 2 round hobby tables which could fit around 6 people and a central hobby table which could sit up to 8 or so. This set up encouraged a social community where people could have plenty of games and there could be large groups of hobbyists working at the tables engaging in cover station.

    The current set up is vastly different. The store is now half the size because the bunker part of the store has been closed off (questions on its reopening are met with mixed answers ranging from "never", "we dont need the bunker", it will re opened later due to renovations" and my personal favorite "it will be available as part of a loyalty program to those who spend a certain regular amount". The rest of the shop which is available has 3 tables about the size of a 6"x4" however each has only a gaming table the size of a 4"x4" with the 2"x4" being a hobby station for 2 people tacked on the end.

    This is what upsets people the most, the loss of 6"x4" gaming spaces and the destruction of the social dynamic by the replacement of the communal hobby tables for lonely islands of hobby scattered across the store. And this is why so many have migrated to the 3rd party gaming store directly above, as it have tables that can be used for 6"x4" games or for communal hobby tables. Because why travel to the city to do hobby if not to do it with other people?

    I'ld like to finish on a positive note. The betrayal of Calth set has been a resounding success. It is extremely well priced for its contents compared to the rest of Gws current mini pricing. It is extremely popular with many people buying one or more of it. It has led to a huge surge of people starting armies sent in the 30k age of darkness system. Amongst those i know there was been at almost one communal forge world order valued at over 250 pounds each (minimum price for free international shipping) per fortnight since the box-sets release. Not only that people love the 30k range for FW, the miniatures a beautiful and detailed, the lore and settling amazing thanks to the black library and forgeworld writers, and the consistent pricing system which is both consistent across the range but also doesnt not change based on the buyers location (a point mainly Australians are sore about is the mark up on GW that is beyond the currency versions, addition of GST [tax] and related costs).

  • Reply to: Rolls-Royce: Halved dividend is price of profitability in future   2 years 9 weeks ago

    I have been following RR for a couple of years and hold about 1000 shares. I think that the commercial aircraft division has been grossly undervalued by the market.

    RR competes with GE on making large engines for wide body planes. There are 6 such planes, the Boeing 777 and 787 and the Airbus A380, A330ceo and A330neo and A 350. RR has exclusivity on the A330neo and A350, GE on the 777 (at least the 777-ER and 777-X which are the current sellers). Over the last 3 years RR has achieved a 60 % market share on engine orders on the A330ceo and A380. The 787 has been split roughly 50:50.

    On the expectation of future sales of these planes, my calculation is that RR will have at least a 60% share of new orders for widebody jets - Rolls themselves claim 50% but then they don't want to let the market over-expect.

    A material news story that the pundits have overlooked is that Boeing is struggling to compete with AIrbus. Surely the same thing applies with GE v.RR. Admittedly some of RR production is in dollar based SIngapore but I still think that Airbus (predominently almost exclusively with RR engines) will so outsell Boeing on wide bodies just as in narrow bodies (eg A320neo v. Boeing 737max) that RR could well find themselves with a 66% - 70% market share.

    I intend to do the same analysis of the marine and diesel engine divisions has I have done here with the commercial aircraft division.

  • Reply to: Dewhurst: AGM surprise is a warning   2 years 10 weeks ago

    All I can say is I've learned a lot from going to them!