(ACM.L) Acambis PLC Buy/Sell
112 : 113.75 (-0.67%) 112.75 Add to portfolio Set Alert Level 2 Desktop Trader
Discussion
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| 24-06-08 |
HOLD
Re: Landsbanki
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Nobody seems to believe anything the directors say any more, Provocative - it is always jam tomorrow. In the meantime, the directors help themselves to huge salaries (much higher than last year I think) and bonuses of up to 125% of salary, mostly judged on short term performance, as far as I can tell from the financial statements. The part time chairman's salary more than doubled over the previous year (from less than £50k to over £100k).
Obviously all the options the executive directors get awarded are not enough. Actually, because the share price goes down all the time these are largely worthless aren't they - silly me for thinking that was the whole point of issuing options in the first place - to encourage the directors to perform and get the share price moving in the right direction. Now they can have bonuses as well, paid today for what probably won't come to anything tomorrow if the past is anything to go by. And all this in a company that has lost 75% of its value in the past 5 or 6 years, has fallen way out of the FTSE 250, has failed to get a single vaccine to market in its history to date (except for ACAM 2000 and another travel one that was sold for a pittance) and where the C Difficile vaccine appears to have been in Phase 1 Clinical trials for over 10 years, yet is the big hope for the future. The shares have lost about 30% of their value since the current chairman took over. It appeared to be his master plans for Varnalis that took the shares there, under his £250k a year part time chairmanship, from 60p to less than 6p. Doesn't look all that good if you consider the facts, does it. I am nevertheless holding on, because I don't see how the shares can go much lower and something must come to market at some stage, surely? That is, of course, unless the US CDC decides to cancel the ACAM 2000 contract, when the company has invested in manufacturing facilities in the US to service it, most of what it recently so shabbily collected via the shameful fund raising exercise. US government contacts are immediately cancelable, according to the small print in the annual statements (under "risks"). No real income is due in the first 3 years of the contract, so that should give Bavarian Nordic the chance to get its equivalent of MVA3000 licensed (the one with no side effects), then we shall see how clever this supposed contract turns out to be. Oh dear. Why did I invest all that money in this company? In fairness I did have a lot more of it in those heady days when I was working, but I clearly didn't have as much sense as I have now. IMO/DYOR |
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| 24-06-08 | |||
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when you look at their 6 pipe lines, and their 2 proven injections against small pox & nile germ, you would think they would be up instead they are near my sell of 25%
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| 18-06-08 | |||
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I think it is probably just the MMs mucking around to try to generate a bit of income for themselves by seeing if they can flush out a few trades.
Nobody anywhere will be interested, sadly. If you wanted to report something I should try the strange hike in activity and the spike to 121.5p the day before the fund raising was announced, making it look as if the issue price was at a discount to the market. Appalling leak. |
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| 18-06-08 | |||
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i'm wondering if this is one of the shares that should be reported
iv'e held it a long time . it is nearly always down in the morning and up in the afternoon.??????? |
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| 13-06-08 | |||
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so much for the ''buy' recommendation, down another 3%
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| 13-06-08 | |||
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Landsbanki raised its price target for biotech firm Acambis (ACM) to 178p from 164p, following the announcement of its ACAM 200 manufacturing deal, share placing, and early pipeline progression. "We believe Acambis has one of the broadest and most promising R&D portfolios among UK biotechnology companies," it commented. The shares, for which the broker retained its 'buy' recommendation, advanced 1.25p to 113.75p.
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| 19-05-08 | |||
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eagle51 - So glad you found it, as I said it certainly worried me, and I was very angry for not being able to find where I read it! Sorry I am late in replying but I have been very busy, I am easing up on pharma's and dipping into Oil & Gas research, found a few good one's, higher risk, but in my view not as high as little pharma's can be!
Have you noted Acam's RNS's today, and their sp???? They seem to have a largish qty of shares left over, I think, but I am sure you'll know more, that this issue was a failure? Probably the reason for the fall today, mm's eager to offload??? Regards, David |
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| 19-05-08 | |||
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Don't know if you're still interested, but I think I have found the bit about the US contract you were referring to and you were right. In the annual report (under the child finance diector's section) it is stated under "risks":
"Acambis needs to establish and validate manufacturing processes at two of its facilities before it can deliver doses to honour the contract with the US Government" "US Government contacts are immediately cancellable". So, the company's very existence is in the hands of the US CDC. Oh dear. I wonder what will happen nearer the time if the CDC prefers Bavarian Nordic's offering (which it may well do), which by then will probably be licensed. I am not sure the first priority of the CDC will be to consider what will happen to Acambis if it decides to cancel. I wonder why the stockpile of existing ACAM2000 vaccines is not being maintained cyclically over the next two years? I cannot think it is this simple and there must be safeguards in place. However, looking at the way the future of Vernalis was gambled on the licensure of one drug by the US FDA (which failed) and the common denominator (in the form of the chairman), anything is possible I suppose. Owning shares in this company is becoming more like a white knuckle ride as each day passes. imo/dyor |
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| 14-05-08 | |||
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http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKL1335705020080513
Thanks for that snippet which made interesting reading. I think the JE vaccine developed by Intercell and distributed by Novartis may be the one that Acambis has just trumped in last stage clinical trials. As far as I can recall, the Intercell JE vaccine (if it is that one) has to be administered over 3 vaccinations and has a 74% conversion rate, whereas Acambis's is administered in one vaccination and has shown a conversion rate in the high 90s%. It won't be available commercially for a while yet however (see Acambis's website), because nothing happens quickly in the Bio world. It is undergoing pediatric trials somewhere in India at present and it is partnered with Sanofi when it is eventually licensed. It should be the first of Acambis's main vaccines to hit the commercial market - whenever that happens. This acquisition may be about repairing the damage Intercell sees being done to its existing JE vaccine when Acambis's hits the shelves and I would expect Acambis to say something about it, but it probably won't - just to continue its policy of treating its shareholders like s**t. I looked for Iomai's most recent accounts, but the last results displayed were for Q2 2006. They showed the usual picture - £70m+ accumulated losses, but there was still $30m+ of cash and realisable securities. Iomai don't seem to have much else, so if someone is prepared to pay $189m to buy it (getting on for Acambis's market cap), I wish someone would bid for Acambis, because it would triple the share price and more on the same basis, it seems to me!! What a shambles this cash raising exercise seems to have become. 0/10. This is the hopeful bit: http://www.acambis.com/default.asp?id=100 All imo/dyor |
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| 14-05-08 | 1 | ||
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It is Acambis working on an encephalitis vaccine if I remember correctly. Background reading
Japanese encephalitis vaccine Intercell snaps up Iomai in $189M deal Comment | Forward to a friend The little Maryland-based vaccine developer Iomai, which has posted some impressive data on a new therapy for traveler's diarrhea as well as an adjuvant for bird flu vaccines, is being bought out by Intercell for about $189 million. Intercell gains a mid-to-late-stage product in the needle-free diarrhea program, adding it to a Japanese encephalitis vaccine it has in development. The diarrhea patch is scheduled to enter Phase III in the first half of 2009. Intercell is looking for approvals of its vaccine by regulators around the globe this year. |
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| 12-05-08 | |||
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eagle51 - I am going to read it all again, no it certainly will not be taken from a bb. The reason (at my age) that I recalled it, was because I was going to top up on the strenth of the RNS's, which I subsequently did, and as I read the 'report' I noticed the 'disclamer' and thought that was bad news and typical of the yanks, but everything else was reasonable, although I have to admit, I did not notice that the financial rewards would take 3 years to start coming in!
I'll get back to you as soon as I know, either way. I sold 50% of my current stock @ 115.070p, taking a loss of around £70.- I would not be surprised if the sp goes down this week. My broker told me this morning that the 'cut off' point for me to buy my 'offer shares' was not 1200hrs today, but had moved to 1200hrs on Wednesday! He asked why I was upset with them (Acambis) and I explained. He could not believe that the EGM, to put this 'Offer' to the shareholders was not to be convened until 20th May 08! Which was a point that worried me?? I'll get back to you when I have done my searching, office a tip! Regards, David |
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| 12-05-08 | |||
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Thanks for that jeddicat - if there is a "get-out" clause it is extremely alarming. I cannot imagine you are correct in what you say because the concept of going ahead with a considerable spend in advance of any revenues would make the company's survival totally dependent on the US people. Even Acambis wouldn't behave in this way.
Are you sure you are not getting confused with an earlier post I made, where I commented that it would be difficult to take effective legal action if the US CDC decided to renegue on this contract and run with Bavarian Nordic's vaccine when it is licensed, because it would be an action in the US courts against the US government? I meant to write 120p - I would certainly take up the offer if the share price went to £120 in the meantime. Sadly the stuff only of dreams. If I wanted more shares (I already have quite a big investment by my standards), better to wait until after the offer fails and pick up some scraps in the market place, so reducing the overhang at the same time. |
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| 12-05-08 | |||
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eagle51 - Very many thanks for your comments! I have to say that there are two reasons for my decision to sell, and save a few.
1) The unacceptable and blatant way this offer has been made, and of course the fact that there is little benefit in the offer, I think I would only save on the tax & Broker fee on the buy! 2) I remember reading all the papers/contract of this new US deal. I clearly remember a clause which said that the US could get out of the contract (withdraw) with no consequence to them, I looked for this clause yesterday afternoon but could not find it, though I do remember that it was written! The only place I did not look yesterday was Acambis's website, I run out of time! I also feel that 2 to 3 years is a long time, and too much could go wrong, for instance I have no doubt that the building of a 'plant' in the US will cost a lot more than antisipated at this time! I think that it is a rather large, costly project, for the value of the contract, which I am sure the US Government could easily get out of should they receive a better offer. I also expect the current administration will be gone by Jan 09! Whats £120p? Ha! Regards, David |
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| 11-05-08 | |||
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I can understand why you feel as you do but perhaps I have made the situation sound worse than it is through my frustration.
This is a uk company that has very good vaccines in the pipeline but has become unpopular with investors because things have not been going according to plan for a while now. That said, the signing of the contract with the US CDC was a very positive event. As you say, the Americans are not usually to be trusted, although there is a contract in place that should mean they can't back out of this deal. We shall see, but not for at least 2 years sadly. I don't see how you reach the conclusion there is dilution taking place. Yes, there will be more shares in issue, but those who buy them will be paying the company 115p per share, which is broadly the same as the current share price. My concern would be that the MMs will subsequently mark the prices at some spurious level that generates them the most trades and this may be at a figure below 115p. If an overhang develops, the price may well fall below £1, but it is impossible to predict what will happen. I gave this up as a game years ago. I think the underwriters may be left with a lot of shares on their hands, but it would not surprise me if there were already institutional buyers primed and waiting to take the shares off them at pre-determined prices. I have no axe to grind with the directors generally, with the notable exception of the chairman who - as far as I am concerned - should go; and preferably quickly. There is no place in a fragile company like Acambis for someone at such a senior level who has made such catastrophic errors of judgement in a similar company in the same town. I have waited many years already and will wait a while before selling the half of my holding I spoke of. If the price carries on falling I suppose I will end up trapped, but I will have cleverer investors than me as companions as the ship sinks!! It doesn't seem likely the company's fortunes will get any worse unless there is a set-back on one of the trials and there should be plenty of cash to carry on, but at some time the company has to come up with the goods and actually get some sales apart from smallpox vaccines. If and when that happens, the shares should start to do very well. It will be at least another 3 years though - as has always been the case!! Good luck whatever you decide to do. I won't be taking up this most generous of offers unless the price is £120p or above. All imo/dyor |
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| 11-05-08 | |||
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eagle51 - sorry, I didn't notice your last post when I posted just now!
Thank you, I am glad that you agree, you will note that I have decided to save a very minimal stock. The other thing of course, is that if the share remains at around 115p (which I explained that I will have to pay, up front, before its voted on.) then with the offer the sp HAS, I would have thought, to go down, because all the previously held shares are to be 'diluted'. Now I am very aware that I am old, and very new to this game, but even with my naivity, I am sure that I am more right than wrong!! I can not agree more with your views, and the point that the company is going nowhere for at least 3 x years, and all the risk with getting the products through, not to mention the finicky, untrustworthy yanks, I have to agree with you that it will not be long before the sp drops WAY below 100p!! Finallly, their behaviour is tantamount to robbery/blackmail, etc etc! Regards, David |
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| 11-05-08 | |||
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a-team - as I said on my last post, I am selling in the morning, but after a weekend of thought I have decided to leave 2-300 in.
For a company which hit the front page of the Daily Mail about its wonder flu drug, I am very disappointed in its progress, and I am sure the Daily Mail is too? Regards, David |
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| 11-05-08 | |||
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i happily declined to take up the offer. no point throwing good money after bad.
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| 10-05-08 | 1 | ||
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I agree the whole thing has been badly handled - I, for instance, only received documatation for two thirds of my holding and had to phone Capita Registrars yesterday to get an entitlement to the remainder.
The jump in share price the day before the recent announcements was disgraceful, suggesting some form of trickery. The way the MMs have the shares in a permanent stranglehold at about 115p is similarly disgraceful. Unless there is a clear margin in it for me, I am not going to take up my entitlement (which I would immediately sell), because I think the price could decline sharply if others are similarly minded and I might be left with more wretched shares at less than I paid for them. I get the impression that the company wants the new shares to be picked up by the underwriters - which they will be if there is no premium on taking up the offer. The underwriters may be able to place them, but it a lot to ask them to do this at the right price, so there may be an overhang for some time to come. It would not surprise me to see the shares go below £1. I don't know why this cash collection exercise was not set up as a rights issue. If it had been, existing holders could simply have sold the rights in the usual way if there was a premium, or allowed them to lapse. The way chosen obliges existing holders to stump up all the cash before making a decision on whether or not to retain the shares. This is yet another example of the directors failing to consider the shareholders, about whom they appear to think f*** all. Their motives shone out like a beacon immediately the dust had settled on the recent announcements - more in the money options and deferred share awards with nil to pay - presumably on the back of what they have achieved so far. Can somebody tell me what exactly it is they have achieved? We are still years away from profitablity and much will probably go wrong before the company ever gets to that happy stage - if it ever does. Like you, David, I am going to sell, but only half my holding. I really wish the chairman would get on his bike ond get the hell out of the company - he has been a disaster for Vernalis and the smell surrounding him must be nauseous. Let Ian Garland take his chance, working under the chairmanship of somebody decent. Why don't shareholders write to the instutional investors, expressing their dismay at the situation? There is nothing to lose but a bit of time and the cost of a stamp. Individually we can do nothing, but if the instututions pick up on the situation, they may be able to force the changes needed. If it wasn't for all the above, the company's chances would not be too bad!! All imo/dyor |
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| 10-05-08 | |||
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All - After much deliberation, and because my broker has only just, (this mornings post), sent me the 'Open Offer by ACAMBIS' letter, and bearing in mind that I have to decide to BUY or NOT my entitlement of qualifying shares, by 1200hrs on Monday. That I will have to pay for the shares on Wednesday, 14th May 08, despite the EGM to vote the 'offer' not taking place until 20th May 2008.
Because I can't help feeling that the whole thing was 'fixed', the deliberate 'fixing' of the sp to arrive at what was the current share price of 115p, why the 'offer', you can buy now at 115p, and as many as you want!! I think my broker was giving me a 'tip' in nearly missing the offer? I do NOT trust the Americans in business, and it really seems to me that others are right in their assumptions about this Board and this Chairman, it is really a disgrace!! On monday morning I shall sell all my stock, at a considerable loss, I might add!! Good luck to you all, I will be keeping an eye on this stock as I do with all my stock sold. Regards, David |
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| 30-04-08 | |||
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thanks for your reply, i wouldn't dream of calling you a knocker. like myself you are a patient long term holder, even longer than myself , i would hate to be in pharms as a director, swetting whether their drug was going to be any good. at least acm.l have something comming in in the future.?
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