(CKN) Clarkson

"That can only mean more than one buyer"

but if there are organisations out there wanting to buy these shares, why are they filling their boots when the Belgians were off laoding millions, rather than buying previously when the share price was lower?

I'm still perplexed.

Ron, I think that if you read this .... http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/dry-cargo/article377898.ece ... it gives a very big clue as to why the BDI has been falling. Vale have been bringing these ships into service since last year, which takes a large chunk of the iron ore trade from Brazil to China out of the charter market. Add to this the fact that shipping is depreciated on a calendar year basis, so new builds (when the market is weak) are commissioned into service in January. That is why the index fell off the cliff in January. Clarkson traders work on a bonus system that depends on the charter rates they achieve. Rates at the moment for dry bulk carriers are working out below the running cost of the ship, so I guess that there will be quite a few lay-ups in the year ahead, until rates rise or companies decommission vessels.
I can't see that Vale will be able to run their fleet profitably if the China trade does not strengthen after the new year celebrations.
On your comment about the index and economic activity .... there is a very strong correlation between the two, when the market is not saturated with shipping, as it now is. The index is 'clean'. You cannot trade it, short it or bet on its future! So it is a good clean measure of what is actually going on in the dry bulk charter market, and this is what Clarkson deal in to a large extent ...... so I use it, not as an economic activity indicator (well I do sometimes!), but as a Clarkson 'activity indicator'.
Regards,
Happy

Happy mentioned the BDI a few days ago.
As I see it, the index measures economic activity via a combination of dry bulk cargo, shipping rates and capacity.

"he baltic exchange dry index once considered a key change of global economic activity is collapsing to its lowest levels in 25 years. that's no reason to worry, according to dennis gartman. he's editor of the gartman letter, of course, and cnbc contributor. he joins us on the fast line. while you're watching this today, what should people know about it? first of all, judge, i've been watching the baltic indices for 15 years. i always like to think it was jimmy grant and i who brought the battic index to everybody's attention. i used to of ship owner stupidity. when the baltic index had gotten up there close to 11,000 two years ago, three years ago, every ship owner in the world built more ships. and the banks lent them enough money. they're scrapping old ships, but they're scrapping small ships and they're building enormous, monstrous ships. everybody's looking to the baltic index as an indicator of weak global economy. it's wrong. it has nothing to do with the global economy now. it has everything to do with bad banks and stupid ship owners.

For full text see
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000070797

Ron, yes it does look that way! Oh well, eh!