(GCM) GCM Resources

More IMF.September 11. This is by Muhith to IMF

http://www.imf.org/external/am/2011/speeches/pr22e.pdf

Power rental and small independent power producers’ plants are not expected to bring in transformational change in power sector that Bangladesh is looking for. Its accretion of wattage is offset by countervailing load of energy import bills of unbearable magnitude. What is required is going for bigger units. A mega-size coal-fired power plant producing 1000-2000 megawatt electricity using coal from the northern part of the country is technically feasible. We are aware of World Bank’s aversion to financing fossil-fuel power projects in the light of environmental considerations but the World Bank is known to have financed coal-fired large projects in South Africa and Botswana. An energy-starved country such as Bangladesh can legitimately request the Bank to finance power plants using coal and help the country in securing the least polluting option for coal-based power plants. The country is also in need of large projects for transport development, especially in roads and railways. The demand in this sector has escalated as a result of the choice of the country to be a transit territory in South and South-west Asia and thus transform itself into an economic hub in bustling Asia of the twenty-first century. Thus for transformational impact in the quality of life of the people of Bangladesh I would urge upon the international public sector in money, finance and trade to play a pioneering role.

Bish Bash Bosh

Now when invested and tied to a certain region, I start to get the feeling that GCM might be in the same slow-rise league than Polo always were!

Take a look at some of our opportunities in 2010 and 2011, such as Kefi for instance.
Pheeew, the same money invested in POL and GCM at the same time would have been a killer... in a negative sense.
A true none-performing combo.

(Just had to let that out here in mountain winter-wonderland : )))

CF, let's hope so!

It was on 9 January when someone who should know more than us emailed me "I remain extremely optimistic that the company will be given permission to mine the deposit at Phulbari within a few months"

I took it with a pinch of salt but maybe just maybe...

Blooming getting desperate. Serious heavy borrowing...to the tune of $2billion, paid back over 15months in total?!...that's going to hurt everyone. Country can't keep doing that for the next 3 - 4 years until coal is coming out of the mines [ even though they got no choice ]...

...bearing in mind IMF have asked what GoB intentions are for fuel import and management for the next three years. The above shows seriously tight spot the GoB are in...unsustainable...

Possible solution; GoB OK mining, and borrow from WB / IMF, and others, based upon widespread confidence that economic growth is guaranteed [ double digits - easy! ], with borrowed money used to deal with the short-term economic / power crunch...

http://www.daily-sun.com/mob/index.php?view=details&type=daily_sun_news&pub_no=50&cat_id=1&menu_id=1&news_type_id=1&index=2

dogbawls - our speculation is sometimes more accurate than we realise. Some time back, we heard of a meeting between the GoB and the US embassador [ James F. Moriarty ] - some of us speculated that it was likely that the Embassador would be talking to the government about the issue of mining and coal [ for obvious foreign and US investment reasons ]...since then, we've come to learn through WikiLeaks that Embassador Moariarty had actually gone further than we'd even speculated...

http://www.bangladeshchronicle.net/2012/02/govt-to-borrow-2b-for-fuel-oil-import/

" GoB will have informed the IMF behind closed doors of intentions to use own coal, and timeframes within which this will happen."

We think it is true (fact), ... we hope that it is true, ... we anticipate that it is true. BUT is it TRUE?

Now, if we knew the answer to that question, there would be very heavy buying tomorrow when the market opens and share would end the day at .... go one pick a figure!

Well, we can dream and build castles in the air ... can't we?

:-))

dogbawls

http://www.theindependentbd.com/paper-edition/frontpage/129-frontpage/93902-1000mw-load-shedding-from-next-month.html
Dhaka, Feb 8: City dwellers are set to experience load-shedding during the up-coming summer as the Power Development Board (PDB) will not be able to produce required amount of electricity to support irrigation pumps across the country. To ensure power supply to irrigation pumps during summer, the government has taken up a policy to cut power supply in the urban areas and to increase supply in rural areas as before although PDB claims that it has added 3,000 MW to the national grid in last three years.
In an inter ministerial meeting, the Power Development Board (PDB) official on Wednesday said due to gas shortage they could not produce around 700 to 800 MW of electricity. On the other hand, some power plants are now out of operation due to technical trouble. Those are to produce around 1500 MW.
He said PDB will try to keep load-shedding within 800 MW in rural areas during irrigation season to help ensure food security of the country.
“We could produce around 5,330 MW against the demand for 7,125 MW during the irrigation season, however, the demand for electricity in irrigation is around 1600 MW,” PDB Chairman told the meeting. The demand for electricity in the agriculture sector is growing by 8 per cent (per year).
To manage the load during irrigation period, a central management committee was formed, he told the meeting.
“All distribution committees would be formed to monitor the situation,” PDB chairman said at the meeting. This year the country will experience around 1000 MW of load-shedding from March, the official observed. The meeting was held at the secretariat on Wednesday. Officials concerned of the power and energy division, BPC and agriculture were present. Dr. Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, the adviser to the prime minister, chaired the meeting.
He directed the officials of PDB and BPC to take necessary measures to ensure fuel supply and power generation smoothly to keep the load-shedding at a tolerable level. The agriculture ministry apprised the meeting that the demand for power in irrigation is 1600 MW plus.

SS...exactly...

http://www.daily-sun.com/details_IMF-for-3-yr-action-plan-in-petroleum-import_50_1_1_1_2.html
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Wednesday wanted to know about the government plans in importing petroleum fuels and management for the next three years before approving a US$ 1 billion credit, officials said.

An IMF staff mission, now in Dhaka, sought government’s next course of action for three years during a meeting with senior officials of the ministries of finance and energy and mineral resources division at finance ministry.

“BPC informed that the government has to incur loss between Tk 8 billion and 10 billion every month due to sale of petroleum products at low prices compared to their high import costs,” an official inside the meeting said.

“BPC would also inform about its action plan on fuel-price adjustments for next three years if the existing rate of subsidy continues,” he added.

Recently, the IMF prescribed the government an upward adjustment of energy prices even in the current peak boro irrigation season, which spans four months from February to May.

According to the energy division, in last three years the prices of fuel oils increased by Tk 17 a litre in five separate attempts.

The prices of electricity were also hiked twice at retail level and thrice at wholesale level during the period.

In December, non-food inflation crossed food inflation for the first time on a point-to-point basis and reached 11.38 percent on the back of rises in diesel and electricity prices.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics last month released the inflation data for December which show food inflation at 10.40 percent.

In December food inflation rate went down by 2.07 percentage points while non-food inflation went up by 1.19 percentage points in November.

Bangladesh Power Development Board has raised power tariffs by seven per cent in its second-phase power-price adjustments which became effective February 2012. In December 2011, the power price was also increased by 13 per cent.

Besides, power prices were increased by 5 per cent each in 2011, 2010 and 2009.

Unsubsidised power, at these prices - based upon expensive, imported fuel - is not sustainable for the people, and will not lead to "durable poverty reduction and growth" [ as IMF puts it ]. This including imported coal [ definitely not as the predominant source of coal - and even then, not clear at all whether any foreign coal can be source dlooking at trouble Tata are having...]. Both IMF and GoB know it. GoB has to have a very definite policy and strategy to make any of this viable. And cutting subsidies on their own isn't convincing enough for them to qualify for the package...

GoB will have informed the IMF behind closed doors of intentions to use own coal, and timeframes within which this will happen. Everyone, IMF and WB, and other donor agencies, know the situation full well - Hasina and GoB have no choices. Just one plain route available...

Bangladesh Power Board (PDB) has recently announced that it lives in cloud cuckoo land.

The government should instead concentrate on mining of our own coal and start setting up of large coal-based power plants with our own coal.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?page=detail_news&date=2012-02-09&news_id=97744
Khondkar Abdus Saleque

Bangladesh Power Board (PDB) has recently announced a mega plan for 7000 megawatts (MW) coal-based power generation. This they say is in accordance with the revised power sector master plan. Ten such plants will use about 20 million tonnes of imported coal (US$ 2.0 billion worth) a year. The board in its ambitious plan opined that such a massive investment would be possible from current rate of growth of export and industrialisation. If that really happens, Bangladesh will join middle income group of countries after 2016.

We are aware that Bangladesh GDP is growing at 5.0-6.0 per cent every year requiring about 7.0-8.0 per cent growth in power demand. But over the past several years power generation and supply could not keep pace with economic growth and industrial development. The present power demand at the peak irrigation season is about 7500MW against which average generation is about 5000MW. Over the last three years of the present government, several imported liquid fuel-based expensive rental power plants have been set up but the generation of many existing plants have become uncertain and inefficient for overage and outdated technology. Moreover, lack of natural gas supply at required volume and pressure translates into 800MW available capacity remaining idle. Consequently, about 2500MW deficit in national power grid has brought industrial growth and development to almost standstill situation. Thus not only foreign investment but also investment of local entrepreauners has become extremely challenging.

The Sixth Five Year Plan recognised prevailing energy situation as an acute energy crisis -- a sectoral "emergency". The annual loss of production and income from power outage could exceed 0.5 per cent of GDP per year. One of the main reasons for such mono fuel energy generation is the lack of required development of natural gas resources and failure to diversify fuel mix. The availability of domestic primary fuel supply is getting scarce forcing the shutting down of fertiliser factories, rationing gas supply for domestic use and CNG.

PDB estimated that if the country does not opt for coal now it will have to rely on import of US$ 8.0 billion worth of liquid petroleum at the present market rate to generate about 7000MW additional power.

We are not sure what made PDB to be so optimistic about relying on imported coal-based power and assurance of stable price of power in the volatile coal market. Bangladesh does not have required port infrastructure to support such a huge volume of coal import. Neither inland waterways retain all-season navigability for plying of coal carriers. Power based on imported coal under no circumstances can be cheaper than local coal and gas.

PDB also realised [may be contested by Petrobangla] that persistent gas crisis may worsen after 2017. PDB apprehension is not supported by massive expansion plan of Petrobangla. International oil companies and BAPEX are continuing major gas exploration and development activities. Petrobangla plans to add another 1000MMCFD gas supply to national grid by 2015 of which Chevron alone may add about 500MCFD. Petrobangla is also pursuing import of 500MMCFD equivalent LNG by 2013. If all these happen, then PDB may not need to go for such ambitious and to some extent unrealistic coal import plan.

There is nothing wrong in planning for shifting of 50 per cent of the power generation on coal to protect and preserve depleting precious gas resources.

PDB plan also indicated that by 2020 about 9800MW power will be generated from domestic coal and another 7,800MW from imported coal at a total cost of US$ 26 billion. According to PDB the remaining power would be generated using gas, oil, renewable energy and these would need US$13 billion more in investment.

The government forecasts the demand for power in 2020 will go up to 17,600

And for those interested heres a copy of the IMF/Bangla November 11 Article IV Consultation Report.

Its a heavy read.....but very interesting.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11314.pdf

I dont wanna keep banging on about the IMF, but just looking a bit further into this.

Firstly, "There'll be a series of meetings till February 14 with top government officials, including the Finance Minister".

Ok, so looking further at IMF Extended Credit Facility.

Below is a copy of the factsheet.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/pdf/ecf.pdf

The important bits here IMO are:

Purpose. Like its predecessor the PRGF, the ECF supports countries’ economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF can also help catalyze additional foreign aid.

Eligibility. The ECF is available to all PRGT-eligible member countries that face a protracted balance of payments problem, i.e. when the resolution of the underlying macroeconomic imbalances would be expected to extend over the medium- or longer term.

Streamlined and focused conditionality
Under the ECF, member countries agree to implement a set of policies that will help them support significant progress toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position over the medium term. These commitments, including specific conditions, are described in the country’s letter of intent.

Program reviews by the IMF’s Executive Board play a critical role in assessing performance under the program and allowing the program to adapt to economic developments. Reviews are normally conducted every six months, but quarterly monitoring is possible in exceptional circumstances.

So the IMF will lend, if the Country undertakes measures to improve the BOP in the medium term.

So they will not allow unnecessary protracted fuel sudsidies !!!!!! Feb 14 ties in nicely with all the other things that are currently due.

and at the bottom of the article...import supply problems

'Currently, Tata Power is executing thermal and renewable projects having total capacity of about 5,351 MW.

Meanwhile, costly Indonesian coal has put a question mark over the viability of Tata Power's 4,000 MW Mundra ultra mega project which was bagged through a competitive bidding.

A raft of problems including acute coal shortage and environmental hurdles are hurting the Indian power sector, which is expected to see a capacity addition of over 80,000 MW in the 12th Five-Year Plan Period (2012-17).'

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/amid-domestic-woes-tata-power-explores-overseas-opportunities/articleshow/11805444.cms

According to Sardana, Tata Power is becoming very active internationally, both for projects as well as resources.

"We have South East Asia and SAARC as one of our target markets. SAARC includes Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan

....

Can you imagine the meeting with the IMF

Hasina: Will you please lend me 1 billion dollars?
IMF: Will you blow it on subsidies, paying other loans back and corruption?
Hasina: Of course not, it will be used for the benefit of the country
IMF: What about the worsening BOP
Hasina: Don't worry, we are going to build loads a power plants and import shed loads of coal. I reckon it's the way forward.
IMF: Are you feekin stupid woman ? Of course we will lend you 1 billion dollars

Or something like that :-)

it was making him blind

no problems Searchers-son, at least it will take Baxy's mind off those biker chics !!

'The mission met with the Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her economic and energy advisors, the Minister of Finance, Finance Secretary, Bangladesh Bank Governor, and other senior officials, as well as private sector, development partner, and civil society representatives.'

included was the energy advisors, since fuel imports are such a drain on the countries bop I would have thought getting real was definetly part of any deal. P

IMF team starts talks with govt on $1b loan



Shakhawat Hossain

The government is likely to hike prices of fuel oils next month apparently to secure a proposed one billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund.

An IMF team led by its Asia-Pacific deputy chief David Cowen on Tuesday started a week-long negotiation with the government on the loan.

The visiting IMF team discussed upward adjustment of petroleum prices with the finance minister, AMA Muhith, on the day, said the finance ministry officials.

Price hike of petroleum to keep the subsidy in line with the budgetary projection of Tk 850 billion is one of the major conditions attached by the IMF to a proposed credit under the ‘extended credit facility’.

The government has increased prices of fuel oils four times last year, but to could not secure the deal.

Now it is under tremendous strains to maintain the balance of payment that stood at (-) $978 million in the first five months (July 2011-November 2011) of the fiscal year because of shortage of foreign currencies.

The situation aggravated after the World Bank and joint financers of the stalled Padma Bridge project like Asian Development Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency suspended disbursement of nearly $2.3 billion loans.

The government in its current budget projected availability of $300 million under the ECF by next June.

Besides, the two sides also discussed introduction of automatic price adjustment of fuel oils at local level with the international market in near future.

The IMF advised successive governments to introduce the automatic oil price adjustment and targeted subsidy instead of existing generalised subsidy.

The IMF team, scheduled to wrap up the visit on February 14, would review the government steps taken in the last six months in the banking and revenue sectors as part of the loan criteria.

The government had received credit support under Poverty Reduction Growth Facility between 2003 and 2006. The IMF approved a total of $590.7 million under the PRGF but released about $467.4 million.

Besides, the IMF provided around $220 million in 2008 after two rounds of floods and cyclone Sidr in 2007

so do i
it will be one of many terms and conditions relating to the credit facility and any other future borrowing requirements

well it should be LOL

This is the IMF Press Release following their last visit in December.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11466.htm

I cant help but feel that the IMF and WB will be pushing for this to happen in the background

  IMF mission starts fresh negotiations on $1b ECF loan

Dhaka : An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission arrived here on Tuesday and started fresh negotiations on the proposed US$ 1 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) loan. The six-member IMF mission led by Deputy Division Chief of Asia Pacific Department David Cowen held talks with Bangladesh Bank governor Dr Atiur Rahman, its four deputy governors and executive director at the central bank head office on Tuesday noon.
"There'll be a series of meetings till February 14 with top government officials, including the Finance Minister. So, nothing could be said about the outcome yet," a senior official of the central bank told UNB over phone on Tuesday.
Earlier, on Monday, Dr Rahman expressed his confidence over securing the US$1 billion loan udder the ECF. "The IMF mission will finalise the details…things look positive. If we get the loan, it'll help cut pressures on the Balance of Payments (BoP)," Atiur told UNB on Monday.
On November 30-December 13 last, an IMF mission visited Dhaka to discuss a reform programme with the government for possible support under the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
The mission met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her economic and energy advisers, the Finance Minister, the Finance Secretary, the Bangladesh Bank Governor, and other senior officials, as well as private sector players, development partners, and civil society representatives.
The discussions focused on near-term macroeconomic policy priorities and growth-critical structural reforms, which could form the basis for a programme arrangement under the ECF. UNB

nice one tiggy
i will copy over to the playground on ADVFN

http://thenewnationbd.com/newsdetails.aspx?newsid=18276

"On the contrary it could be much more comfortable for the present democratic government to initiate mining of own coal and set up mine mouth coal plants. It is ridiculous that a democratic government having commitment to the nation to explore and exploit own energy resources in the most technically appropriate and economically feasible method is hibernating on useless coal policy for almost three years"

Why?

Phulbari,
It would surely help to clarify:

1) Did you hold GCM during the initial share spike in 2009?
2) Did you buy and hold GCM during the long term rise in 2010?
3) Did you sell your shares in 2011?
4) Did you buy back your stake only recently, in Dec 2011 or Jan 2012?

Always best to clarify and help clear those endless assumptions and/or suspicion theories we saw here in the past.

One also musn`t forget that throughout 15 months, each and every newsSearcher sc rap here has been interpreted as the final go ahead from BGD.
Other idio ts like Tbg123 called buy-alerts for GCM as from 115p down; most notably during the mere technical recovery as from 95p ...before the final downspike to 40 ish happened.
This is massive!

And I understand that peoples nerves are at blank.
Well, do your decent research and sit back.

Affirmative!

Phulbari - do you currently hold this stock?

lucky b lol yea i can see that happening romeo dropping down to the 50dma testing it anyway for support could be as soon as tmmw its gonna test some shakey weak holders i feel anyway might punch into the 60s again , time will tell anyway off to bed been along 1st day back at work

...by the way: A healthy consolidation would be down to the 50-day MA line at around 72.50 - 73.00p.

As long as main holders support that line this remains a decent hold. Don`t know about the running joke of the final GO ahead... but what matters is a possibility to reach 92p / 119p and maybe that 135 - 175p buyout target. Worth to hold and see.

Nice retrace, Linton5!
And thanks for your greetings ...up to the snowy mountains here!

Was just looking over stuff about political loyalties and came across this Congress Research Report re US Interests

Most definitely worth a read

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41194.pdf

CF, you're right of course. It's just frustrating watching this play out.

Out of interest, who do you think is the fly in the ointment here?

It clearly needs to happen fast and the propaganda machines, both for and against seem to be cranking up a gear.

I just wonder who has the real influence here.

Amid applause from other legislators, the AL leader said, “It is true that people cannot move against us as we are in power now. They will try us on polling day at the next general election if the government fails to tackle the present market situation.”

Ah well at least she realises that her lack of actions will count at the next election.

This useless PM needs to get a serious grip, and fast

only suggesting
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=218718
The National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas, Mineral Resources, Power, and Ports yesterday welcomed the prime minister's comments suggesting “preservation of the coal reserves for the future generation”.

"The premier's comments reflected largely the people's desire and demand," said a statement of the watchdog, which has been opposing to subsequent governments' decisions of awarding energy blocks to foreign companies for extraction.

It recalled that the people in the past shed their blood and staged movements for “protecting the coal mines" at Phulbari of Dinajpur.

The statement was issued after the organisation held a meeting on the comments of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with Convener of the committee Engineer Sheikh Muhammad Shahidullah in the chair.

The meeting, however, demanded that the government take short-, medium- and long-term plans by forming a national platform to ensure proper and optimum use of coal resources.

Member secretary of the organisation Professor Anu Muhammad and other leaders including Engineer M Enamul Haque and Ruhin Hossain Prince attended the meeting.