...How come you script writers talk about politics when it suits?
I.E, what is happening regarding baghad, and the region, and blah blah!
Now more than ever politics hit our home turf, and you all stay silent?
Who here is an actual private investor, and who here actually is beneath someone, you are worried about getting the boot from?
Total embarrassment right! You are ofcourse an embarrassment. And, Karma!
...look at The God Like CCCs response, and his tick ups!
That is all GKP is currently worth!
Back in the day when God Like Keyboards spoke, the SP would go up a billion %.
Now, aww, bless. Just a few ticks, and the fact that they have said something so smart, to themselves, and their zombie followers ticking them up, makes this look, lol, so attractive as an investment, right?
Look how correct they are. TO Looomings, trillions of sluggish sludge in the ground, and its fact because a person called, lol, sorry, bob said so....
That is why the only humans left are those that, probably have....nout to do!
Thanks Les, you keep going, but that post was only about SH-1 and its 3 to 4bboip found in the Jurassic.
There are still the rest of the Appraisal Drills to account for which took the Oil in Place up to 13.7bboip, but that 13.7bboip includes the Jurassic PLUS the Triassic.
BoboBob over on ADVFN may know the mean total of the OIP for the whole of the Jurassic over the whole of Shaikan, but I'd hazard a guess at a mean volume of 5,000,000,000 Oil in Place for the Jurassic.
IMO if 5bboip is correct then ERC's c.624mb P1 proven + P2 probable reserves they use, turns into their reserves figure representing just 12.48% of the total Jurassic Oil in Place.
With present day Recovery methods being used plus the open matrix the Oil travels through inside Shaikan, that recovery figure of 12.48% for the Jurassic is incredibly low IMO.
If the 12.48% PI + P2 recovery figure was moved to a realistic figure of say 25%, then 5,000,000,000 x 25% = 1,250,000000 of Recoverable Reserves.
Okay its all playing with figures, but playing with figures and assumptions is exactly what ERC does (in the absence of having x-ray eyes to see underground)
Plus, consider this.
At present GKP holds a Contract that entitles them to c. 56% of Shaikans Oil which represents the c. 624mboip Reserves x 56% = 394,440,000, >>but IF<< the 2nd Amendment changes GKP's entitlement to say 70% then that c. 624mb Reserves x 70% = 436,800,000 barrels of Oil becomes accredited to GKP which makes GKP a more attractive Takeover target.
And Remember . . . . Shaikan was classified as Commercial on the 10th August 2012 and from that date the KRG should have started paying their percentage of Capital Costs of Shaikan. http://ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=12274505&ishtml=1
But instead GKP has been paying the KRG's percentage of the Capital Costs of work done on Shaikan for the past 5.5 years from the 10th August 2012 so maybe GKP will get more than 70% of Shaikan in the 2nd Amendment,.
With the 2nd Amendment signed sealed & delivered and with GKP in a Takeover situation and in discussions, I would be hoping for a figure a tad north of previous forum discussed amounts . . . which with just 229,429,566 Shares in Issue would represents a sizable price per share.
Understanding the monitory possibilities that Shaikan can represent > "through"< GKP, one should by rights, be able to understand why such c.119p Auto Buy Orders have been going through the last few days, and why Institutions & Funds have bought more than 12,000,000 GKP Shares since the October 2016 Refinancing.
The present Share Price has no bearing on any future price of GKP and particularly any future price in a Sale situation for GKP.
The present Price of GKP is IMO a price at which large Orders can be acquired at and distributed at, giving Sellers a fair price for Shares bought in Refinancing while maintaining a fair price for any new buyers in the market for shares.
But what has changed
There is still 13.7 billion barrels of Oil in Place in Shaikan which has not disappeared.
What has happened is that a part of that 13.7bboip which is contained in the Jurassic has been placed by ERC into a Catagory called Reserves which deals in "Recovery Volumes".
Those Recovery Volumes are termed as P1, P2 and P3 (proven, probable and possible.)
"P1 reserves" = proven reserves (both proved developed reserves + proved undeveloped reserves).
"P2 reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable."
"P3 reserves" = the sum of 2P (proven reserves + probable reserves + possible reserves. all 3Ps
On the 25th August 2009 GKP announced that SH-1 had encountered a significant Oil column in which they said "This new data provides Gulf Keystone with grounds for a revised range of oil-in-place volumes of between 1.5 and 3.0 billion barrels for the oil encountered, thus far".
Taking 2,000,000,000 as an average number of the then OIP the c. 624million barrels of 1P (proven) plus 2P of Reserves ERC has attributed for Shaikan represented c. 27.5% of the August 2009 Jurassic OIP.
So by October 2009 the Jurassic OIP has risen from 1.5 to 3bboip to 2 to 4bboip, and taking the middle 3,000,000,000 the c. 624mb of P1 (proven) plus P2 (probable) of Reserves ERC attributed to GKP for Shaikan now represents c. 18.5% of October 2009 Jurassic OIP.
P1 (proven) P2 (probable) and P3 (possible) figures will constantly change as more information is recovered from working Shaikan, and some "probable" figures will get moved up to "proven" and some "possible" figures get moved up to the "probable" category, just like the OIP figures increased as more Appraisal Wells provided more information.
So the 13,700,000,000 Barrels has not disappeared, instead due to the current "Development plan" which only includes the Oil in Place from certain levels in the Jurassic, ERC has only taken into account a small percentage of the overall OIP in Shaikan....and only the c. 56% of the Oil in Shaikan
When Production starts from the Triassic's 40+ API Oil as GKP said back in 2009/10 that 40+ API Oil will aid recovery from the Jurassic Levels and when the 40+APIP Oil is mixed with the c. 18 API Jurassic Oil, Shaikan will be producing an average c. 30 API Oil.
Such as above will not happen overnight and might not happen in GKP's tenure of Shaikan but it will happen during Shaikans lifetime, as will Productions of 100mpd plus.
I am far from being a fan of the present BoD as I consider that for the work they are presently doing, which is sitting on their backsides doing nothing, they are all far too highly over paid.
But . . .until the 2nd Amendment is signed sealed and delivered the BoD's hands are tied as the BoD do not know what Contract Terms they will be spending under, the 1st Amendment Terms or the 2nd Amendment Terms.
Why the 2nd Amendment has been agreed signed and delivered is anyone's guess but IMO it is the reason why further work on Shaikan cannot be started, and not knowing for certain of how much
In reality - what are we worth?
119p a share, and with not a lot of variation over a considerable amount of time. Where's the confusion? Even Mikey's Golden Cross Daily Pump Guff couldn't change that
Give it a few more years, and if the whole KRG system and operation becomes viable and they learn how to write a cheque, then we should see some multiples on this. Until then, its just rinse and repeat for the pump crew (well, the remaining 2 that haven't yet been banned for their multiple log-ins and idolisation of banned posters and their guff)
Over and out, from The Med
And, for those that wanted it, please do enjoy yer Brexit
GKP share value was purely driven by sentiment between 2009 to 2013, we all know by now the reasons behind this, which has been discussed over and over for some time now.
Like it or not, we are seen as a damaged company now and sentiment is very low as of today, the BODs have not done anything to change this view and Jon must be one of the most disliked CEO around at the moment which unfortunately adds to today's negative sentiment of the companies value.
The good news is that GKP are in a very good cash position compared to many other similar IOCs of it size and has a very good oil field which although complexed in nature, is proving to be extremely resilient in maintaining production levels without any investment requirements currently.
What we are crying out for is clarity and honesty of what is known regarding Shaikan and why so much hype and speculation has been made from previous CEOs and BODs.
We need to know what is the near future plan is for further development. we are approaching a year and a half where the company said the short term plan was to invest and increase production to 55k bopd, what is holding this up?
You can throw in politics, corruption, security and oil price in the mix to have an impact on the share price value, which on the face of it can be justified, however when these macro areas improve, GKP share price does not reflect positivity.
Trying to put a realistic value as of today is near on impossible, we are priced by what the market believes it is worth, this will change very quickly once we know about the future investment plans and details of achieving this and any agreement reached regarding the 2nd amendment.
DNO released their results today, they are very bullish for the forth coming year sentence below.
" We are committed this year to continue to out-drill, out-produce and out-perform all other international companies in Kurdistan combined," DNO's Executive Chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani said in a statement."
"Looking ahead to 2018, the company plans to hike year-on-year Kurdistan operational spend by more than 50 percent to $250 million - up more than three times 2016 levels," DNO stated."
This is a company not deterred by the macro issues mentioned above, but by confidence in the Kurdish oil sector, an example to the rest of IOCs operating there.
Something GKP should take note and for heavens sake lets get the ball rolling and show us poor beaten up shareholders their is hope for the future in the company we have stood by in, we really do deserve better both mentally and financially. CCC
You can get to a fig of 4 bill blls reserves to GKP 58% easily , the KRG do not want this broadcast it seems hence the odd things disappearing off GKPs web site and presentations being doctored years after they were shown. GKP is worth a hell of a lot.
We are in a different situation.
No further investment till further clarification of pay back rates etc is not a bad strategy.
Production has not fallen off the cliff as was alleged . We have money for work over.
Why do we have to bring out the bleakest interpretation of everything.
Do not forget that there is an election in May and we need to know what the shape of that government be. Trump firing Rex T may be a prelude to declare clear intentions of USA in middle east oil and that may mean some USA company purchasing some oil company in Iraq.
I am sure it is not a ramp.
I do not understand the other side of deramping without hoding any shares in the company.
They wouldn't be here posting if there were no PI's still reading the BB that is obvious. Do you remember why OM was banned from iii ? There is one on ADVFN who admits he has no shares and posts there most the day , must be very kind warning us about our 'bad' investment .
sarahgibbs15 Mar '18 - 09:02 - 559995 of 560000
0 0 2
From Broadford on 3i - he was bang on the money!
If I was Todd, I would want to put off selling my assets for as long as possible
Imagine, end 2010 Europe finally dragging itself out of recession and into growth.
Far East and China have already been growing for 12 months
Oil price now over USD100, central government in Baghdad and KRG in agreement over distribution and management of oil assets
GKP now has 1 producing well and 1 exploration well drilled and proven and still at least one to go.
What price does one put on such a scenario?
To my mind £3 doesnt cut it more like over £5, maybe as much as £8.
Again, if I was Todd, I would be putting in place financing plans to ensure that I could remain independent and in control of my assets until I feel the time is right. Whether these plans include a new public placing, or whether they are allowed private placings, is almost by the way.
As our shareprice grows, many who have been in since 10p days will perhaps cash-in their chips and enjoy the rewards. Others who came in later will feel nervous about buying a £3 share in the hope that it might double. The extreme volatility will probably die back a lot, making it less interesting for small day-traders.
I hesitate to say the skys the limit but GKP really has the potential to generate an awful lot of wealth. I hope Todd and his colleagues play their cards right and keep their nerve.
Yesterday the first of the bulk Auto Trades started going through at 08:52:16
This morning the bulk Auto Trades started going through at 08:54:30, and so far there has been two flash trades gone through and 51 trades have been reported totalling 99,984 @ 119 and all bought from a Iceberg Order of 7,000 sitting @ 119p which remains as 7,000
Have a look at what DNO is planning for the next couple of years.
"...Looking ahead to 2018, the Company plans to hike year-on-year Kurdistan operational spend by more than 50 percent to USD 250 million up more than three times 2016 levels. A total of 11 wells are planned at the Tawke license, of which six will be at the Peshkabir field and five at the Tawke field. At Peshkabir, DNO plans to reach 30,000 bopd by mid-2018 and continue to ramp up production from the field in the second half of the year.
At the Tawke field, plans are being finalized to drill four wells in 2018, in addition to the Tawke-48 well which completed at end-February 2018. The Company is initiating engineering studies for injection of Peshkabir gas for enhanced oil recovery at Tawke."
If JF & CO do not show some mettle soon then they're gone.
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