(GKP) Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Any further takeover speculation is and will be treated with a lorry load of salt ... Once bitten, twice shy. Ultimately Thursdays pipeline news is unsatisfactory.

Numbo, which is the catalyst for this call because Thursday's pipeline news certainly wasn't the market mover. Further OIP isn't likely to have the effect either. The leverage and liquidity is still drying out after being rinsed over the last few months.

IGNORE!
Like many others here, I have it on ignore, but still I find the BB cluttered with responses to it! So for the sake of all of us trying to ignore the t w u n t can peeps pleeeeeeese stop responding to its fickwutted pointless posts??

OK, come on all you reservoir engineers out there. When will we be able to book our first reserves numbers? Will the news of plans to build the pipelines, alone, be enough to be able to answer the monetization requirements for booking reserves?

You've just hit a dozen ignore lists.

Littlemiss still underwater from your poorly timed buy.

Just don't know why a negative person would spend allady and night posting such rubbish at times .
Yes its good to have a balanced view , but at least make it creditable .
Have you any family that you could spend more time with ?
Possibly Kids to have fun with and play in the garden ?
A job maybe ?
A Hobby ?

A normal Life ?

anyway bed time now , and I will never comment on you again .
Hopefully everyone won't .
Ignore

I'm not desperate. The gigglepuss posting buy recommendations is the desperate one. The share price showed no sign of breaking the current downtrend. Lower lows , lower highs.

nm

What a sad little person you are. Post message, never qualify it and then generally post a little follow up message.
Your problem is?
Why not qualify your post and then may be people may take note, however i doubt it very much.

crossed

You know yesterday's announcement is a game changer you are making a completeasss of yourself sitting at your computer all day and night trying to reply negatively to every positive comment it's embarrassing listening to your desperation
And that's from an ex deramper, take it from me your in need of a strate
gy change (probably followed by another name change in your case)
just a thought

IMEYOU - We will see?

Technically speaking your right,

...but this next week might sort the investors from the traders and the boys from the men!

maybe your right, maybe your wrong...

I personally think the downtrend will be confirmed to be broken VERY soon,

... that is also a prediction and NOT a guess.

BTW
At what price would you accept the downtrend to be broken?

;-)

Nimo


--------
The downtrend hasn't broken.

What an incredibly sad person you must be imeyou.
To be on the boards all hours be it through work or out of some other spiteful reason is quite pitiful.
Just take a look at yourself and your life, you only live once mate, do something more worthwile and rewarding.
On ignore.
Goodnight.

" I know about the 500k, thats my point.....40 odd companies out there and gkp get 25% of the capacity. "
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Plus alongside DNO & Genel, we are among the earliest to appraise and reach mass production.

We also remain very strongly discounted, and rumours aside, industry analysts have commented on our T/O potential, the KRG have crucially spoken about consolidation of existing operators (people begin to realise how much influence they have), and we had the BoD exit awards a month back.

Let's ignore the T/O potential and the KRG for the moment, we are a major beneficiary of the initial oil exports, and as said with some 400-500k bopd planned, we will be the major beneficiary of the Turkish monetization.

The downtrend hasn't broken.

Numbo, I think the market felt otherwise today. It's been a screaming Sell for several months.

Boiler rooms.

2 months ago to the day the board agreed the exit awards in the event of a take over or asset sale amounting to over 50% of the total asset value of gkp....

This is not something they cooked up on a flight from London to Erbil out of boredom ...there had to be a reason behind it, and there had to be a time frame in mind. I don't believe it was part of a safety net, but a well planned strategy suggested by PWP / Strand Hanson in line with the full brief they were given.

2 months ago now.....anyone reckon one more month and well be sat in the shop window with a sold sign around our necks? Or Shaikan being taken out of short trousers and sent off to big school?

The share price would have to surge past £7 on Shaikan sale for the board (140,000 each ( Todd aside)) to bank a cool mil each on the exit awards alone. Were they thinking more like 2 mil each? Or a steady 1.5 million beer vouchers in their sky rockets a piece?

Maybe get last years results published out of the way next week, Shaikan sale in June ready for happy share holders at an AGM in July/August timeframe?

Cheers,
HWD
------------------------------------------------------------------------
On 21 March 2012, the Independent Directors (as defined below) approved Exit Event Awards, subject to the occurrence of an Exit Event, equivalent to the value of 2,000,000 common shares to certain Executive Directors and employees, which included the following Exit Event Awards to Executive Directors of the Company and directors of its subsidiary companies, being Todd Kozel, John Gerstenlauer, Ewen Ainsworth, Tony Peart and Chris Garrett (together the "Relevant Directors").

 

Relevant Director

Number of common shares to be cash settled, subject to the occurrence of an Exit Event

Todd Kozel - 300,000

John Gerstenlauer - 140,000

Ewen Ainsworth - 140,000

Tony Peart - 140,000

Chris Garrett - 140,000

And this is a prediction NOT a guess.

But you still need to DYOR

;-)

SB, I thought that yesterday, that did Exxon make a grab for GKP with the much talked of £8 offer, when the caught wind, or were told by the US Gov that dialogue had started between Erbil and Ankara on pipelines and a route to Market, about Sept/Oct of last year?

The timelines seem to fit the time it would take from initial dialogue, trawling through both countries constitutions (especially the Iraqi, but the Turks made a recent amendment to theirs also) to going live with an announcement such as yesterday.

Seems plausible, and coincidental of course that Exxon were the first major to make the move north. the early lowball to try to fluster TK into a deal failed it would seem, which may have brought other suitors into he fray, giving us more time to proof up.

And if 111's info is correct that the Chinese have prepared a 'good' but not 'great' offer then I say make them wait so we can continue to strive for fair value.

That reminds me, did we hit that OWC yet?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I also wondered if they'd hit TD yet?...If so, then I guess it's straight onto the DST's.

I wouldn't mind more frequent updates from now til July.....it would certainly create steady momentum, together with solid positive sentiment.

For all my friends, this could be it... the start of the next uptrend.

Check the charts, check the candles, DYOR and guessing, and as always lets not totally disregard this amazing flow of extremely positive news... because that can have a positive effect on the share price!
;-)

... if for any reasons the usual bunch of "traders" try a sell off to get more shares, perhaps/maybe, (maybe not), de-risk some early and get back in on the bounce...which as you know could come at any time...

Sorry i can't text you all but my phone is cut off... i kid you not...

Good luck

;-)

A Parliament of Howls.Will they ever 'sort it?Still L.and S. over 'n in. C.L

http://ikjnews.com/?p=4183

Kurdistan to Export Crude Oil Independently




Kurdistan Region, which has a long-running dispute with Iraqi central government over oil, territory and power sharing, “could initiate independent crude exports if its dispute with Baghdad remains unresolved,” the Kurdistan Region’s Natural Resources Minister has warned.
Ashti Hawrami, the Minister of Kurdistan’s Natural Resources has recently said that the Iraqi central government has” illegally stopped payments” for Kurdistan’s oil exports and cut the region’s share of refined products.
“If it really [the situation] gets worse, then I’ll export oil by truck, refine it (abroad), and bring it back,” Hawrami said, according to Iraqi oil report.
However, the Kurdish Minister said on Sunday that Kurdistan Region could start exporting its crude oil production through a new pipeline to the Turkish border by next year.
Kurdistan region has its own elected parliament, government, and depends on its security and armed forces. The region has been semi-independent since 1991 but chose to stay within Iraqi federal system after the fall of Saddam’s regime in 2003. However, Kurdistan government has disagreements with the current Iraqi central government and halted its oil exports last April.
“In August 2013 we will be able to directly export crude from the Kurdish region’s fields,” Hawrami said at an oil conference in Kurdistan on Sunday. “We will be responsible for exporting oil. It will still be Iraqi oil.”
The minister said the first stage of the pipeline would be completed by October this year to carry crude from the Taq Taq oilfield. The second phase would connect to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day by August next year.
According to Reuters, the Kurdish Minister has said that Kurdistan was also developing plans to build a separate pipeline that could connect to a refinery in Turkey’s Ceyhan port by 2014.
Baghdad says only the central government’s oil authorities have the right to control oil exports, and dismisses contracts signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government as illegal, while the KRG says it has the right to develop its own oil fields.
IKJNews.com / Reuters

Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan Explore Natural Gas Options


http://ikjnews.com/?p=4191


Necirvan Barzani, the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, is in Turkey. What is the priority issue that we are discussing with him; the PKK or energy?
A completely new energy cooperation is developing between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government. Whatever happens in Iraq, the goal of this cooperation is to lower the natural gas costs for Turkey and Europe. Both Turkey and Europe want to end the unacceptable price policies of Russia, Iran and the countries that those two influence.
In the US, the amount of gas that can be purchased with $100 would cost around $400–450 in Turkey or Europe. In other words, if you are paying $100 per month for natural gas at home, an American consumer pays roughly $25 or, at most, $30 for the same amount of consumption. The reason is simple: Russia sets the natural gas prices, which are indexed to the price of oil. The world economy is unstable, and if there are regional tensions that cause oil prices to rise, natural gas prices follow. We are all transferring capital from our pockets to Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and Qatar.
This chain has to be broken.
The US was the first to do this by producing shale gas. Once an importer of natural gas, the US will soon be exporting it. As far as I can gather, shale gas is harvested by a simple method. Environmentalists criticize the method, but their voice is not very effective in the US because whoever owns the land also owns what is under it, and they can do whatever they want with it. In Europe and Turkey underground resources belong to the state, which is very cumbersome at best.
So Turkey, whose annual energy bill is $60 billion per year, continues to search for cheaper energy resources. Thus Turkey hopes to get cheaper natural gas from Kurdistan, which is known to have the richest natural gas reserves in the world. Of course, this depends on if Turkey can take the appropriate steps.
Experts explain the basic difference between oil and natural gas: oil is pumped through a pipe, then a buyer comes loads it and sells it anywhere he wants via a tanker. With natural gas, the consumer must be nearby. It is possible to liquefy and transport it to further destinations, but that is too expensive to be a feasible option.
The fact of the matter is, a united Iraq or a divided one with an independent Kurdish state makes no difference. When the region stabilizes, Kurdish gas has to pass through Turkey, its nearest consumer.
If Turkey plays its cards right, it could undermine the Russian hand and forcefully lower prices. Meanwhile, it gains a friendly neighbor that will provide natural gas for years to come.
This economic fact of life has begun to alter the PKK vision of the Regional Kurdish Government. The PKK’s main base at Kandil Mountain in northern Iraq will always be a thorn in the side of Kurdish relations with Turkey, and it is ultimately against the long-term interests of Kurdistan.
If you assess the recent developments in the light of this information, it will be easier to discern the direction of Turkish foreign policy.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/05/will-natural-gas-finish-off-kand.html

"In the past five years we took the right steps in oil sector and the evidence for this is the boom the Kurdistan Region has witnessed, " Barzani said "we demand that the oil and gas bill in Iraqi House be ratified as soon as possible so that we can deal with region's oil according to law and constitution."


http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/4/308095/

Barzani says energy should be used for prosperity not war
20/05/2012 18:40
ERBIL, May 20 (AKnews)- Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said it is necessary that Iraqi natural resources be exploited for the prosperity of the Iraqi peoples not for staging war.

Barzani made the remark at the inauguration ceremony of a two-day international conference on energy which began today in Erbil.

"We at the region hope that the natural resources become the source of prosperity of the entire Iraqi peoples," Barzani said.

He continued "our policy is different from that of some of Baghdad officials….we do not want to exploit this important resource [oil] for taking revenge.

"We can exploit energy for prosperity not troubles and war."

Barzani said now Kurdistan has become a key player for providing world's energy and reiterated the region will continue to invest it its oil fields under the Iraqi constitution.

The Kurdish PM called on the Iraqi House of Representatives to ratify the oil and gas bill soon.

"In the past five years we took the right steps in oil sector and the evidence for this is the boom the Kurdistan Region has witnessed, " Barzani said "we demand that the oil and gas bill in Iraqi House be ratified as soon as possible so that we can deal with region's oil according to law and constitution."

Kurdistan oil contracts have always been criticized as "illegal" by certain officials in Bagdad and have sparked tensions between Baghdad and Erbil.

Recently after Baghdad failed to reimburse the companies investing in Kurdistan oil sector, Kurdistan suspended its oil exports. This in conjunction with media incrimination exchanged between Kurdish MP Farhad Atrushi and deputy PM for Energy Affairs Hussein al-Shahrestani deteriorated the situation further.

Among the officials who attended the Erbil conference today were Kurdistan Energy Minister Ashti Hawrami and his Turkish counterpart Taner Yildiz. They held a joint press conference and elaborated on some issues.

Yildiz said in this conference the method of Turkish companies' investment in Kurdistan oil sector will be discussed.

The minister said "we have come to Erbil to show a way with regard to gas and the natural resources…..and within Turkish gas project we want to get benefit from Kurdistan gas.

"What we want to achieve in Iraq is much greater and we should not differentiate among Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis….Iraq should return to its normal state…. a major country for providing energy to Turkey."

Reminding the reporters of the 17% of Kurdistan share from Iraqi total budget, Yildiz said "the companies which are operating in Kurdistan oil benefit the entire Iraq and we look at [this issue] in this way…. Iraqi government should not say more than this."

"The presence of the Turkish energy minister is a sign for the development of Kurdistan's energy sector," said Kurdistan energy minister.

Hawrami went on to say "we want to set a roadmap ….for strengthening both sides[Kurdistan and turkey] in economy.

"We are very content with Turkish cooperation which shows us the way towards development.

"Iraq can become a big contributor to Turkish economy."

As for the reports over the secret agreements between Turkey and Kurdistan, the Kurdish minister said "what is circulated is not right at all…if there are any agreements we will announce them and will not hide them from the public."

By Rebin Hassan

..asksthe INA to nominate someone but Maliki for PM .. the Parliament Speaker is classed as one of the presidencies along with the Iraqi PM and President of Iraq .. could be curtains for Nouri now

http://www.alliraqnews.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10583:breaking-newsnijaifi-request-submitted-to-ina-to-nominate-substitute-to-maliki-within-week&catid=35olitical&Itemid=2

Baghdad (AIN) –The Parliament Speaker announced "Submitting a request to the Iraqi National Alliance to nominate a substitute to the Premier, Nouri al-Maliki, within a week."

He assured in press statements posted by Musoliya Satellite Channel "Najaf meeting resulted in signed letter sent to INA to nominate a substitute to the Premier, Nouri al-Maliki, within a week in addition to other issues that will be announced later."

"We are convinced that we are no longer able to deal with Maliki's policy of monopolization which deviated the democratic practices in the State," he added.

"It is time to start a new phase by correcting the direction of the political process and to find the suitable person to rule the country in this difficult period," he concluded.

A crucial political meeting was held in Najaf province on last Saturday, some political leaders attended the meeting while some others did not.

SB, I thought that yesterday, that did Exxon make a grab for GKP with the much talked of £8 offer, when the caught wind, or were told by the US Gov that dialogue had started between Erbil and Ankara on pipelines and a route to Market, about Sept/Oct of last year?

The timelines seem to fit the time it would take from initial dialogue, trawling through both countries constitutions (especially the Iraqi, but the Turks made a recent amendment to theirs also) to going live with an announcement such as yesterday.

Seems plausible, and coincidental of course that Exxon were the first major to make the move north. the early lowball to try to fluster TK into a deal failed it would seem, which may have brought other suitors into he fray, giving us more time to proof up.

And if 111's info is correct that the Chinese have prepared a 'good' but not 'great' offer then I say make them wait so we can continue to strive for fair value.

That reminds me, did we hit that OWC yet?

nice one cooky. that would send a rocket up the a@@@e of shari and Maliki

http://www.niqash.org/articles/?id=3043&lang=en


the battle for iraqi oil: can there ever be a winner?

| عربي | کوردی
niqash | Shwan Zulal | London | 03.05.2012
The battle for Iraq’s oil goes on. Iraqi Kurdistan is intent on controlling its own oil, Baghdad is intent on wresting that control from them. Will the impasse ever be solved? ONLY IF BOTH SIDES SEE REASON, one commentator argues!

Ever since oil was found in Iraq nearly a century ago, there has been a battle to control the most important commodity the country has known. In the beginning, the struggle over oil played out between foreign or colonial powers. Then when the Iraqi oil industry was finally nationalised in the early 1970s, the struggle for control of the oil industry became internal. Today it dominates domestic politics.

Ever since the government of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, in the north of the country, decided to come up with its own version of oil and gas laws in 2006 and 2007, the Kurdish and the Iraqi federal government in Baghdad have been on a collision course.

The Kurdish formulated their own laws because they were largely frustrated by the federal government’s inability to come up with such a law and to start to develop the oil industry. Iraqi Kurdistan then began to negotiate contracts with international oil companies and to move on without Baghdad’s explicit approval.

Since then the powers-that-be have been deadlocked, with neither side willing to compromise. Baghdad is refusing to recognise contracts made by the Kurdish region and threatens to blacklist international companies operating there. In return the Kurdish halted oil exports from out of their region.

In fact, it is only relatively recently that the Kurds have been able to control the oil under their own feet – and it is hard to imagine they would ever give up those rights, especially now that huge companies like Exxon Mobil and other major oil companies are lining up to do business in the region.

Meanwhile the policy that Iraq’s central government in Baghdad is pursuing, with regard to the Kurdish region, is not particularly realistic. It’s outdated and it is hard to understand why Baghdad hasn’t yet worked out that the Kurds will not let them dictate Kurdish oil policy or control Kurdish oil revenue.

Comments made by Abdul Mahdi al-Ameedi, head of the federal Ministry of Oil’s contracts and licensing department, in the online industry portal, the Iraqi Oil Forum, indicate Baghdad’s current opinions on the matter.

*Production sharing contract* An an agreement between a government and an oil company that says they both share in production costs. The contractor typically pays for exploration, development and production costs of an oil field. They will eventually get their money back because of an agreement made about how much of the oil revenue they will be paid. While an oil company takes on more risk and financial burden here (say, if the oil is not found), they may also benefit from higher revenues once the oil starts flowing.
Asked if production sharing contracts, or PSCs as they are also known, were problematic, he replied that: “the state considers that production-sharing contracts are illegal and unconstitutional since the Iraqi constitution stipulates that oil and gas in Iraq is the property of the Iraqi people. Since a PSC gives foreign companies the right to a portion of the production under the form of profit oil, they are considered in contravention [of] the current constitution.”

Judging by al-Ameedi’s comments, Baghdad seems to be doing what it can to make PSCs that Iraqi Kurdistan signed, look illegitimate. Not because they think PSCs are a bad idea or because they are less value for money for Iraq. Rather, they are bringing the Iraqi Constitution into it as a way of putting political pressure on Iraqi Kurdistan, to try and prevent the Kurds from moving any closer

It's the Gulags for you, Agent Admin !!

When do we think the KRG will announce the blacklisting of all companies taking part in the ICG 4th round bidding for Iraq oil contracts?

Now THAT would make me chuckle.

MikeyAdmin - He's good with boilers.

-17% of what KRG believe is owned to them from the sale of all other Iraqi oil.

I know about the 500k, thats my point.....40 odd companies out there and gkp get 25% of the capacity.

Now that is fantastic news in itself
Mog

2m bpd BY 2019 just to be accurate. Some considerable way off.

Should have gone to spec savers

Late 2013 / 2014 - 2019

Shahristani will take oil from anywhere as long as it is free........

Mog,

The 2m bpd has already been clarified; we will potentially contribute 500K, not the majority of it. This was in a statement from the KRG today.

I know everyone is in a ramptastic mood, but it doesn't hurt to try and be just a little on the accurate side.

The longer the takeover takes the better the price will be imo. If I was a major I'd be looking to make GKP an offer now before they prove up more oil.