We are all in different circumstances , you are very wealthy so you took a big hit but didn't have to miss hols or sell the Jag, I am the other end of the scale. The Write down of AB is not a story that is dead or buried nor will it be in the life time of PI GKP holders.
How could MOL say AB is on course for 30 k a day production in 2015 and then be written off as worth buttons just 4 months later ? And who was clever enough to have that stress crack built in to the Bond agreements , all too convenient for my liking.
This threat of gassing out benefited Shareholders because it helped persuade Cont Bond Holders to capitulate and write off large loss in the restructuring. The Senior Notes were fine, they just took Shaikan if restructuring failed, thanks to Guarantee.
I really, really do not understand the bitterness here, the Board were in an impossible situation and if they had failed, the Notes were the only winners. Equity was completely and utterly worthless.
CBs would have been equally worthless if restructuring had failed.
I had a large CB position and should be more aggrieved than you guys but I respect the Board, whatever the gassing out realities. I rolled over but confident Id have got zilch if the other CBs hadnt also capitulated.
Surprised that there has been no discussion on the CPR that is over due , do people not get it the FP must be way way higher than GKP thought and on the quiet JG said 3% , that was a long time before we have had all this data from production .
If it is 4% then we are looking at 8 bill blls + reserves to GKP 58% WI.
Pis could ring IR mark Atermae and ask for a new CPR.
Gulf's dy/dx (as stated by both John Stafford and John Gerstenlauer) is 4 billion barrels reserves per 1% FP. As a geologist said - ' Shaikan is like a bath of oil with a few rocks thrown in it .'
I think the good ol' US of A have missed a trick here. Now we know where GKP will end up. Not sure whether the Russians will be paying the market rate, but who knows the Chinese may still be interested, although its nearly 9 years or so since the Chinese were coming. ( well according to the board scribes at the time ) Anyone still got Spidey Monkeys calculator ?
Russia will continue to develop relations with Kurds: Putin By Rudaw 13 minutes ago.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual press conference in Moscow on December 14, 2017.
MOSCOW, Russia Rosnefts oil deals with the KRG are beneficial to all parties, including Iraq, and Russia will continue to develop relations with Kurds, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday.
Our companies such as Rosneft work in Iraqi Kurdistan. We believe this benefits Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Russian economy, Putin stated in answer to a question from Rudaws Khalid Hussein during his annual press conference that can last hours.
Rosneft has signed multiple oil contracts with the KRG a move Baghdad has complained about.
Asserting that oil is a sovereign resource, Iraqs Oil Ministry recently stated that all contracts must be signed with the federal government.
The ministry was responding to a statement from Russias Minister of Energy Alexander Novak that Baghdad has no complaints about our projects in the Kurdistan territory.
Our relations generally with Kurdistan and Kurds are good and historically rooted, and there is a good degree of trust in our relationships, Putin said on Thursday.
There is no barrier in the way of us to develop our relations with the Kurdish nation. And we will continue, on our side, to develop our relations with Kurds.
Regarding Kurdistans independence referendum and the resulting military clashes and frozen political relations, Putin said that disputes should be resolved within the context of the constitution and far from violence by respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq.
When ERC Equipoise prepared the third CPR, their 30 June 2016 data cut-off point was at around 24 million barrels cumulative from about four years Jurassic production.
Since then the cumulative production has risen to about 43 million barrels.
Jon Ferriers 2015-16 scaremongering about the Shaikan wells gassing-out during 2017 has proven to be just a load of hot air. And he hasnt spent one single penny of the cash which he pleaded with the shareholders, eighteen months ago, that he desperately needed from them. He just sits on the cash while his colleagues and himself fill their trouser pockets.
Its high time that Jon Ferrier released a new CPR and gave shareholders a true account of the situation.
13 December 2017 - 9:45am
KOGAS announced on December 12 that the company recovered US$2.49 billion invested in the Jubair project, an oil and gas field development project in Iraq.
KOGAS said that the company achieved its investment recovery rate of 101.6% by recovering US$ 2.53 billion (cumulative crude oil recovery volume of 43.74 million barrels) through KOGAS Iraq B.V., the subsidiary in Iraq invested for the project by KOGAS.
In 2010, KOGAS established an Iraqi corporation to participate in the Jubair project and began production of crude oil. This year, its daily production reached an average of 430,000 barrels.
KOGAS said that the company would be able to recover US$ 378 million invested in its Iraqi corporation by the end of next year.
"We anticipate that the Jubair project will be able to make net profits every year until 2035 when the project will come to an end," said a representative of KOGAS. "
GKP's current Kurdish PSC is not worth having IMO - at $120/bbl oil that's another matter perhaps, but we won't see that again for quite a long time.
"December 12, 2017 in Iraq Oil & Gas News
By John Lee.
The state-owned Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) has said that it has recouped its $2.49 billion investment in the Zubair oil field in southern Iraq.
According to a report from Yonhap, the company has recovered $2.53 million as of December, which exceeds its initial outlay.
The oilfield is currently producing around 360,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
The project primarily involves the drilling of more than 200 wells, the construction of treatment and storage facilities and refurbishment of the existing facilities."
I presume the reference to $2.53M is just an error.
...and here is an earlier piece that sheds some background light on the costs / benefits of the whole TSC issue:
"Iraq needs to review upstream contracts in line with oil prices: Oil minister
Dubai (Platts)--7 Sep 2016 931 am EDT/1331 GMT
As Iraq continues to pump record crude oil levels, oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi, stressed Wednesday the need to review its upstream contracts with international oil companies to account for changes in the oil price.
Luaibi met a delegation from Italian oil company Eni led by head of exploration, Antonio Villa, in Baghdad, to discuss his plans for the sector in 2016 and 2017, which he said would focus on the small undeveloped fields in the south of the country.
He emphasized that his office is working to overcome the obstacles and difficulties faced by oil companies operating in Iraq, adding that it "will open a new page in the development of the oil sector" in a statement released Wednesday.
Luaibi reiterated that he has no plans to cancel any of the upstream contracts, but called for the deals to be modified to take into account prices.
Eni leads the development of the 4 billion barrel Zubair oil field in the south of Iraq, along with South Korea's Kogas and Iraqi state-owned Missan Oil Co. under a technical service contract with the oil ministry.
It plans to increase total production capacity to 850,000 b/d over the next few years. But planned investments in the field have been delayed as the company has sought to preserve cash to deal with lower oil prices.
Not only have these dented Iraqi oil export revenues, but they have also meant the government requires a larger portion of this revenue to pay fees and cost recovery to its international partners for their work. This in turn means less budget available for Iraq to spend on increasing its production capacity.
With oil prices at more than $100/barrel, the proportion paid in cost recovery and fees is around 16%, but this could rise as high as 48% in a much lower price environment.
In its September nominations for example, Iraq allocated a total of 1.066 million b/d of crude as payback oil out of a total export program of 3.257 million b/d, or around 32%. This crude would be worth around $1.54 billion at today's price of around $48/b, from total revenues of around $4.7 billion.
But at $100/b, revenues would be nearly $9.8 billion, and Iraq would only have to allocate around 514,000 b/d for the equivalent contractor payments."
The restructure was to prevent a low TO price by a hostile bidder . My guess is that the Chinese were buying retail shares on the quiet .
The restructure was required as the company had to either offload its debt or go-under. GKP's share price was a relative bargain against 800p for years, and yet no-one ever amassed enough to do a hostile. Even when the sp was significantly less than £1 and volume was easy to come by. Accumulation never existed, as was proven then.
The excessive debt was brought about in order to develop the company, by an overpaid CEO who failed to get any turnover to ever pay the debt back (despite having a 'special relationship' with the guys tasked with writing the cheques). But why would he care anyway? He was getting plenty of cash in his salary every month, as has every other CEO that has tip-toed up to the role and looked sheepish. Its not as if their pay has ever been performance-related
Greasy palms a-plenty in them thar hills......
Greasy palms, covered in thick, greasy, gravy
Forget the notion that there has ever been a bidder. As I've said for years in here, there will be no sale of GKP until the payment process is proven.
Remind us, please, how much are we still owed from past oil sales? And when do you think we'll ever see it repaid in full?
Last month payments were paid on the 10th Nov to the main IOCs, first time for ages for all to be paid on the same date.
This month we have passed the due date for all, clearly this will be watched carefully considering the reduced amount the KRG are getting since losing Kirkuk's oil fields.
It is being reported that the KRG income has decreased from $565.5 million a month to $337.4 million, a 40 percent drop.
According to Rudaw the KRG have planned to reduce the salaries of high-earners by as much as 33 percent as they prepare to further reduce their outgoings.
A few weeks ago Barzani said the KRG have sufficient funds to pay all there financial obligations and will announce publicly if this can not be fulfilled.
So unless this becomes a reality, i expect payments will continue to IOCs although they may be somewhat less on time each month. CCC
Why do you continue to put out constantly, figures that we can see or find ourselves?.
They serve no purpose to us at all, just very boring to see yet another set of prices which all have in front of us. Have something to say instead.
I remember watching how the tide turned - subtly at first - against TK
I also recall how TK was the architect of his own downfall
a. never achieving a payment for oil sales from the KRG
b. failing to achieve any of his stated operational targets
c. crippling the company with excessive debt on poor terms
d. bigging it up, and then flogging his share-holding on the sly
How is it possible that the tide of idolisation towards TK wouldn't eventually turn?
I was a constant critic of his perpetual failures as a manager, and then massively so when he dropped 'his baby' down the stairs with this casually-forgotten-to-mention share-sale. He was nothing more than a marketing manager, while we look back at this time of reflection.
From the point of his sale onwards, this business was exposed for what it was, and nothing has ever changed since. It's still just a gravy train for the secret handshake brigade, never to be sold while the gravy floweth freely and the KRG remain completely immune to accountability
Turkeys...... can be a bit dry. Any more gravy anyone?
I too have occasionally gone down the memory lane of the past.
My conclusion is after taking away the predictable ramping and de-ramping was a lot of genuine posters giving there thoughts and opinions as they saw it at the time.
As of today there is virtually no one giving GKP any positivity, this is due to the current BODs total news blackout and those of us who remain are left with nothing more than the horrendous past events that has consumed the value of our investments to the levels today.
I had hoped that we would at least get some indication of company developments in the late summer, the KRG were addressing IOCs PSC and reaching agreements on receivables etc.
GKP seemed to be on course of reaching a deal regarding the 2nd amendment, however this did not materialise probably due to the confrontation with baghdad and the fallout it has coursed.
We are left with the " as you were " scenario.
It is now nearly two years ago we were told, investment was needed to maintain Shaikan current production volumes, so without any meaningful cash spent, Shaikan continues to produce, it is for that reason i am still here. CCC
It's a shame about your loss of data, but these things happen.
The late reporting wouldn't have made much difference as charting the information would include ordering by date automatically smoothing and ordering the historical changes.
I was reading through old posts a couple of days ago, reminding myself of the course of events, and the same thought struck me. As you say it is clear this company has been stolen off of everyone. All the old company stalwarts have gone and instead we have a feeble BOD running a feeble company, with a man at the top who seems to have no bite whatsoever. A puppet if ever I saw one.
But I don't believe it was all a con - that doesn't make sense of events. There has been misrepresentation from the company, but there has also been an orchestrated negative campaign of misinformation from other sources for a number of years. I remember watching how the tide turned - subtly at first - against TK. And those posters, once their role was over, disappeared overnight. Others posted negatively until the restructuring, and then disappeared. I remember several posters taunting us, saying that the sp would go to 1p. How we all laughed at that. But it happened. Now, was that a coincidence? How could it be? It was accurate beyond belief. Then we had the SAG, and M&G wading in. All made no difference, in fact all were detrimental, even if some behind the SAG genuinely believed in what they were doing. Jeremy Asher - remember his role in all of this? He believed that TK blocked the sale of the company and took action before the KRG came out and attacked him publicly. He was on the board. He knew things we didn't. Then the oil price, ISIS, super corrupt Kurdish officials, a CFO who sold the company down a river of debt - I mean how much ill luck can one company actually attract?
Remember Hub - that bastion of knowledge and positivity? He was one of so very many turncoats. Even the super positive Dalesmann washed his hands of everything, after touting himself around the bbs as a consultant on oil investing and analysis. What about BBBS? He was scared off - for what reason? Was he genuine? Or not? His posts can still be found in their entirety on here.
Unpleasant cabals still exist on lse and advfn. I believe one has over 20,000 posts on GKP alone. One can't help but question why this continues, since the share is virtually destroyed. Yet each bb still appears to have its paid posters - something you don't see on other share forums to quite the same remarkable extent.
Was this all just a super massive, coordinated con? Or not? And who conned who? And why does the negative posting continue for a supposedly badly run, worthless, declining, unloved company with few original shareholders left? Damned if I know any of those answers...
The BOD are paid a lot to apparently guess , we could have done that . I am referring to the $25 mill we raised to keep production at 38K a day . One drill and 3 ESPs that was for. NOT NEEDED.
GKP will be sold before production slows IMO. A MOC will do FDP No 2 in operation targeting 200K a day within 3 years . GKP is just in the way.
Re the Restructure the write down of the BER of AB which led to the PUT dropping below 0.4% came just 4 months after MOL were saying AB was targeting 30K a day in 2 years time . There was IMO market sensitive info withheld .Down the line if AB ever does turn good all of a sudden there will be legal action undertaken.
It seems more and more obvious as the months and years roll by that GKP been stolen off us. They said it needed refinancing to spend on increasing production to survive but how much capital expenditure has been spent since we lost our investment. None! It's just a cash cow for the new bondholders. There should be a judicial enquiry . The greatest robbery of all time worth billions!
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