(JLP) Jubilee Platinum

They are looking to create a Monopoly. Given that most Platinum comes out of SA, by setting a 50% tax rate on super profits, they will drive up the platinum price. A higher price is good for the Government, however for producers this would be offset by the increased tax rate. All in all i'd say a lot better than a Zimabwean style nationalisation. What does it mean for Jubilee? well with the current share price nobody values the platinum we have in the ground anyway. Perhaps once the threat of all out Nationalisation subsides then this stock might be seen as less risky.

ANC mines report: the proposals
http://www.miningmx.com/news/markets/ANC-mines-report-the-proposals.htm

http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2012/02/04/julius-malema-s-appeal-bid-fails

it's hard to find any of my miners that arent showing a healthy rise, even EMED and BEM ! Good old JLP hasnt let me down though !

.OILBARREL
February 02, 2012 - Fox-Davies Capital
http://bit.ly/wCiGGm

A STUDY commissioned by the ANC has rejected calls for mine nationalisation and come out in favour of higher taxes and royalties, the Business Day newspaper reported on Thursday.
http://www.miningmx.com/news/markets/ANC-mines-study-rejects-assets-grab.htm

Fox-Davies Capital
Views from the Trading Floor
4:36 pm
http://bit.ly/ysS7Hk

Apologies comura I meant fortunatas

The road is long
With many a winding turn
That leads us to who knows where
Who knows When
But I'm strong
Strong enough to carry ....on well you get the jist

We are in this because we feel there is significant potential and there are some respected posters on here who have left us a clear view of where we are going (sorry should go). The answer is when and whether alone in more JV's or with whom.

I'm just hoping its not like the rest of the song

It's a long, long road
From which there is no return
While we're on the way to there
Why not share
And the load
Doesn't weigh me down at all

As comura says theres a lot of info on here already take a peak.

why dont you do some research like the rest of us lazy.

Can any of u smart alecs in and out of the company let me know where this company is headed.

The BoD can't even meet the goals they themselves set, JJ. So which is it - have they been absurdly optimistic to the point of fantasy, or have they been unbelievably negligent?

If they would simply give factual quarterly updates with realistic assessments of the state of the company's projects, THEN they would deserve patience. But right now, they show nothing but contempt for PIs and deserve nothing but contempt in return.

Comura

I'm sure Colin & Leon are doing all they can to create shareholder value, it just takes time.

There are several rns's due soon that should lift the sp way beyond where we are now.

patience will win the day.

the sp is gaining on SLP
-------------------------------------
Well, that didn't last long.
It's OK, Leon, you can go back to watching daytime TV while waiting for someone with more experience to buy us out...

http://brokermandaniel.com/2012/01/26/masterinvestor-seminar-2012-grab-your-free-ticket-now/

"Held on Saturday 21st April at the Business Design Centre in Islington ...

Some of those firms currently signed up for the show include:

..., Jubilee Platinum, ..."

sorry comura, something in your posting didnt make sense. You included the words Leon and "get finger out" in the same sentence !

I've known for a while that SLP was de-listing from ASX, but after a brief look at the SLP bb I've only just realised that means it's no longer ISA compatible. Non-Exchange shares often fall outside of insti radars, so SLP has effectively dipped below the horizon. In comparative terms, it gives JLP an opportunity to rise higher. If Leon and CB can pull their fingers out and get the 5MW ConRoast up and running then we could gain a leading edge on any merger with SLP.

http://www.mintek.co.za/Pyromet/Files/2011Jones3.pdf

JLP's potential is high, but its risks are too. One thing currently in its favour is that the sp is gaining on SLP. The BRR:JLP merge was f***ing ludicrous - are you LISTENING, Leon!!! JLP isn't much more than a better finanaced BRR, but a 1:1 merge with SLP would make better sense than what seemed possible last year. And we'd probably end up being better managed...

Yoda

That's still below my entry point of 39p :-( I will think about averaging, but the way this stock has yo yo'd the last couple of years it's difficult to gain the confidence to commit !

Arthur

I agree fortunatas, the BoD lack of PR in the last 2 years is shocking.

I won't care if the current platinum smelting of 2500 oz's of PGM's allows them to buy yet another smelter though. A permanent 5Mw ConRoast one at Middleburg will boost the sp way over 30p, maybe 3 or even 4 times where we are today. All done with no debt and paid for by the current smelting profits.

whatever the upside is going to be, this wont make up for the lack of inertia in the BOD and the unforgivable handling of PI relations.

bad link in previous post
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/3903484

I like the idea of platinum coins. Once these are minted It will soak up a bit of supply, and they won't be recycled http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/3903484.

Final one for your weekend research, an old article about another PGM, Palladium, and it's use in the motor industry. Good background knowledge.

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/uploaded_files/int_2008/09special_featurepdindieselcatalysts.pdf

More reading for you in another Bloomberg article on increase in demand for platinum.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/carmakers-7-billion-platinum-purchases-shrink-supply-glut-commodities.html

Carmakers’ $7 Billion Platinum Bill Shrinking Glut: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim - Dec 6, 2011 4:08 PM GMT

Carmakers will use a record $7 billion of platinum in catalytic converters next year, diminishing a glut just as mine production declines for the first time since 2008.

About 3.82 million ounces will go into auto catalysts, 17 percent more than this year and the most since 2007, Morgan Stanley estimates. Supply will exceed demand by 81,000 ounces, down from 295,000 ounces, as output contracts 1 percent, according to Barclays Capital. Prices that fell 15 percent this year will average $1,845 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2012, 23 percent more than now, the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.

While there is mounting concern about global economic growth, automakers will sell a record 79.5 million cars and light commercial vehicles in 2012, according to LMC Automotive Ltd., a research company in Oxford, England. The 6.5 percent increase will be led by gains in developing economies. Demand for platinum is also coming from investors, and holdings in exchange-traded products are within 13 percent of a record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The price is very low and very near production costs,” said Thorsten Proettel, the analyst at Landesbank Baden- Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, Germany, who was the most accurate price forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years. “We won’t have a global recession next year. Emerging markets will still prosper.”
Declining Supply

Platinum fell this year to $1,503.25 an ounce at 4 p.m. in London today, declining in the first three quarters. The last time that happened, in 2001, prices rallied more than 10 percent in the final three months. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities advanced 3.6 percent, led by gasoil, gold and cattle. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities dropped 8.2 percent this year, while Treasuries returned 8.9 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Supply will decline next year in both South Africa and Russia, which together account for 88 percent of the global total, Barclays estimates. Mining expenses rose 30 percent last year in South Africa and 13 percent in Russia, according to UBS AG. Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS), the world’s biggest producer, said in July it expected costs to reach 12,600 rand ($1,567) an ounce this year, 7.4 percent more than in 2010.
Digging Deeper

Mining companies are paying more for wages and energy, at a time when they are digging ever deeper to maintain production. With shafts extending down as much as 1.4 miles, temperatures at the rock face of Northam Platinum Ltd. (NHM)’s Zondereinde mine in South Africa can reach as high as 162 degrees Fahrenheit. It uses as many as seven refrigeration units to pump chilled air into the mine, according to data on the company’s website.

The decline in production will be partly covered by a 0.3 percent increase in recycled metal, leaving supply 0.7 percent lower than this year, Barclays predicts. Demand will expand 1.9 percent, the bank estimates. Platinum is also used by the glass, chemicals and electronics industries.

Anglo American Platinum, based in Johannesburg, will report a 44 percent gain in net income in 2012, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the second-biggest producer, will earn 28 percent more in its next fiscal year, the estimates show.

The projected jump in demand may be curbed by slowing growth. While the International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to expand 4 percent next year, unchanged from 2011, it forecast a slowdown in Europe and China. Europe will account for 29 percent of consumption this year and China 26

OK, this bloomberg article is about shipping freight companies, but it gives a very good insight into the increasing demand of car sales in the like of Asia and Brazil, again worth a quick read.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/car-carriers-profit-from-record-global-demand-as-shipping-slumps-freight

Car Carriers Profit From Record Global Demand as Shipping Slumps: Freight
By Alaric Nightingale and Rob Sheridan
October 25, 2011 12:53 PM EDT

Ships capable of hauling 4,000 cars across the world’s oceans may make the most money next year since the global recession as production reaches a record and demand from emerging markets swells cargoes.

Shipments will rise 10 percent to 12.7 million vehicles in 2012, more than twice the fleet’s expansion, according to ABG Sundal Collier ASA, an investment bank in Oslo. Rates for the 550-foot vessels will gain 36 percent to $15,000 a day, RS Platou Markets AS estimates. Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA, Europe’s biggest owner of the ships, will boost profit for at least two more years, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Global car sales will rise 8.5 percent to 80.7 million in 2012, according to researcher JD Power & Associates. Demand is being led by developing nations, which will expand 6.1 percent next year, compared with 1.9 percent for advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund predicts. For owners of car carriers, that means profit at a time when freighters hauling commodities are losing money.

“Who’s buying cars? That’s Brazil, that’s Russia, that’s India, that’s China,” said Ole Stenhagen, an analyst at SEB Enskilda AS in Oslo, whose recommendations on shipping companies would have returned 71 percent for investors over the past three years. “As long as you’ve got fleet growth under control, you’re set for a significant increase over the next three to five years.”

20% Increase

Car carriers will earn an average of $11,000 a day this year and next year’s projected rates would be the highest since 2008, according to Platou. They’ll advance another 20 percent to $18,000 in 2013, the Oslo-based investment bank estimates.

Capesizes, the largest ships hauling iron ore, on average made $12,999 a day this year, below their breakeven of about $20,000, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange, which publishes assessments for more than 50 maritime routes. Forward freight agreements, traded by brokers and used to bet on future costs, anticipate rates no higher than $18,575 through 2016.

The largest oil tankers averaged $7,863 a day this year on the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route, the industry’s benchmark, Baltic Exchange data show. Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the vessels, says it needs $29,800 to break even. FFAs indicate rates no higher than $10,475 through 2013.

Returns on ore and oil vessels slumped because of a glut of carriers after rates that were as much as eight times higher in 2008 spurred owners to order new ships.

More Vessels

The capesize fleet expanded 50 percent since the end of 2008 and orders at yards are equal to 30 percent of existing capacity, according to data from Redhill, England-based IHS Fairplay. That compares with growth of 11 percent for very large crude carriers and orders at 15 percent. The flotilla of car transports gained 2.4 percent and orders are at 9.7 percent.

Japanese carmakers including Honda Motor Co. had to halt production for almost two months after a magnitude-9 earthquake and subsequent tsunami struck the country March 11, eroding supplies of vehicles and spare parts overseas. Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota Motor Corp., the biggest Asian auto producer, returned to full output last month.

Asian vehicle sales plunged 17 percent in the second quarter from the year’s first three months, figures from JD Power show. They gained 11 percent in the third quarter from the second and will climb 6.4 percent in the current period, its data show. Worldwide sales of Japanese vehi

http://wallstreetpit.com/88588-should-you-consider-platinum


Should You Consider Platinum?

By Sasha Cekerevac Jan 11, 2012, 10:28 AM Author's Website

Over the past two years, everyone has been talking about gold when it comes to precious metals. But, of all the precious metals, I think you should consider platinum.

Traditionally, platinum has traded for more than gold, but in the fall of 2011, we saw this ratio hit a low not seen in over 25 years. Several factors have been against precious metals in 2011 and platinum specifically. The first is the flight to safety in gold, with its higher levels of liquidity. In times of stress, liquidity is highly valued.

Since 3/4 of all platinum comes from South Africa, currency moves are a huge driver for the production and sales of precious metals. As we’ve seen the rand strengthen in 2010 and into the early part of 2011, this has caused fewer sales, as the price of platinum went up. Since the fall, however, we’ve seen the rand depreciate against the U.S. dollar, which bodes well for platinum.

Platinum is used in automotive production primarily in catalytic converters. Auto sales were thought to have gone over the cliff, but in fact we’ve been seeing signs of a rebound. Auto sales were up five percent in 2011 and a further increase of four percent was expected in 2012. For the first time, emerging markets are going to surpass developed nations in auto sales. Even with that growth, sales in the U.S. have rebounded dramatically since 2009, when 10.4 million vehicles were sold up to an estimated 13.5 million units in 2012.

Yes, but you might say that the world economies are weak, so is this the right time to invest in platinum? I would say yes it is, precisely because of where we are in the price of platinum when looking at the big picture. The current marketplace has priced in very poor economic data; however, this will spur massive money supply growth coming forth by world central bankers in 2012. Money supply growth has been shown to lead car sales by three to six months, in addition to overall increases in precious metals prices. This is in addition to more interest rates cuts around the world; another key driver in car sales.

To recap, currently you are able to get platinum that is relatively cheap trading at a 25-year low when compared to gold. Plus money supply growth will be a worldwide phenomenon in 2012, which will be a wind in the sails of both precious metals prices and car sales, which will drive platinum price appreciation.

Indeed an excellent read pearlyglo, very well found, I would recommend all investors or those sat on the sidelines read the article. It gives a fantastic insight to where the experts think Platinum is headed.

With Jubilee finally starting to smelt their own purchased PGM tailings last week, their profitability and the sp is only headed in one direction from here. As I said last week, 12p/13p was the low, it's gone and won't be back. Yes there has been a good rise off those lows, but there is still a massive buy opportunity here as the sp is still in a hugely depressed, undervalued state. Here is the link to pearlyglo's find, it has charts which do not transfer over to ii and you can download a word document of the report with a link at the bottom of the report.

It is definitely worth the read.

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2012_jan_platinum_a_win_win.php

Good article at 321gold today.

Come on TG5 you know where Leon is, he's in SA working to get the smelters cash positive. When he has given the company the stable platform to move forward I trust you'll speak otherwise of him.

I find it even more amazing Colin Bird was not aware Juniors think Conroastg in an unproven technology when I've been saying it for years

With the exception of reference to the Daily Mail the interview was like a copy and paste excercise from 2yrs ago

And one last thing; Where the **** is Leon Coetzer the supposed CEO

I find it amazing that Colin Bird is very thankful to the Daily Mail for raising Jubilee profile. Is not this something Jubilee should be doing as a matter of course? Also, he was not aware of juniors thinking that Conroast is an unproven technology! Daily Mail article aside, no wonder there has been a loss of sentiment in Jubilee.

Crusoe

Thanks, findingnemo, I'd forgotten it. The document is a useful re-read.

Comura the info was communicated in the Annual Report. Extract below.

The Company plans to commence processing of platinum concentrates towards the end of the calendar year of 2011. ConRoast processing trials smelting platinum concentrates in the exiting furnaces at Middelburg proved successful, allowing the Company to migrate existing smelter capacity from smelting ferroalloy material to smelting platinum concentrates. This migration of smelter capacity will commence once the new 5MVA furnace has reached capacity, thus freeing smelter capacity for platinum concentrates.
The Company has continued building platinum concentrate stocks in anticipation of the migration of smelter capacity onto platinum concentrates.

this is something I had in emails
-------------------------------------------------
JLP again taking the word-of-mouth approach to company updates...

Yoda, you are right, this is something I had in emails in early Dec, abridged below.

"We have reached the level of production on the new furnace that now alloys us to commission one of the two additional furnaces onto platinum material shortly. We have continued to increase our stock levels on platinum concentrates in anticipation of this shift.

...this will not delay our move onto platinum concentrates since we will be utilising one of our existing furnaces within which we will run the ConRoast recipe. "

Comura,

I've just been reading through my notes and apparently it was mentioned at the AGM that JLP had purchased a large pile of tailings. It will be this that they are now smelting. I know from previous research that it is possible to do this through an AC smelter, so I expect JLP are using one of the ferro chrome smelters, either a 2.5Mw or the new 5Mw, probably the initial one. This way of smelting is not as efficient for sure, so I expect they will run the tailings through the smelter a couple of times. It is still well worth doing though as it will bring in additional revenue, I estimate around £2.5m. JLP are building up a small cash pot, hopefully to finally build, beg, borrow or steal, a DC furnace and finally start smelting the good stuff on a permanent basis for their own profit, after that the smelters are self financing.

It looks to me as if JLP are very close to permanent platinum smelting, when it does the sp is going to climb very strongly, doubling definitely, although an sp far higher than 30p is certainly probable under those circumstances. It looks as if 2012 could finally be the start for investors here after so much disappointment.

The company PR is still very muted though, which is poor at best.

I agree, I'm amazed there has been nothing with regard to informing shareholders that we have started to smelt Platinum again..... is this not thought to be information that might materially affect the sp?

As for 20p, the sp should be back over 30-40p on this news. We're looking at a stockpile of 2500oz at a basket price of over £1000oz, that's a revenue of £2.5m just from a stockpile. I wonder what size the smelter is? One thing for sure is that it is either a 1.5Mw, 2.5Mw or 5Mw, the question is whether they converted a ferro chrome smelter over to ConRoast or borrowed one

Come to think of it, where's the smelter? Has JLP converted the 5MW AC? If JLP was to release an RNS saying it has an operational 5MW ConRoast now smelting PGM tailings then the sp would possibly climb above 50p...