(PCI) Petroceltic International

Given time Kurdistan WILL be the place to invest in, imo.


http://www.niqash.org/articles/?id=3043&lang=en


the battle for iraqi oil: can there ever be a winner?

| عربي | کوردی
niqash | Shwan Zulal | London | 03.05.2012
The battle for Iraq’s oil goes on. Iraqi Kurdistan is intent on controlling its own oil, Baghdad is intent on wresting that control from them. Will the impasse ever be solved? ONLY IF BOTH SIDES SEE REASON, one commentator argues!

Ever since oil was found in Iraq nearly a century ago, there has been a battle to control the most important commodity the country has known. In the beginning, the struggle over oil played out between foreign or colonial powers. Then when the Iraqi oil industry was finally nationalised in the early 1970s, the struggle for control of the oil industry became internal. Today it dominates domestic politics.

Ever since the government of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, in the north of the country, decided to come up with its own version of oil and gas laws in 2006 and 2007, the Kurdish and the Iraqi federal government in Baghdad have been on a collision course.

The Kurdish formulated their own laws because they were largely frustrated by the federal government’s inability to come up with such a law and to start to develop the oil industry. Iraqi Kurdistan then began to negotiate contracts with international oil companies and to move on without Baghdad’s explicit approval.

Since then the powers-that-be have been deadlocked, with neither side willing to compromise. Baghdad is refusing to recognise contracts made by the Kurdish region and threatens to blacklist international companies operating there. In return the Kurdish halted oil exports from out of their region.

In fact, it is only relatively recently that the Kurds have been able to control the oil under their own feet – and it is hard to imagine they would ever give up those rights, especially now that huge companies like Exxon Mobil and other major oil companies are lining up to do business in the region.

Meanwhile the policy that Iraq’s central government in Baghdad is pursuing, with regard to the Kurdish region, is not particularly realistic. It’s outdated and it is hard to understand why Baghdad hasn’t yet worked out that the Kurds will not let them dictate Kurdish oil policy or control Kurdish oil revenue.

Comments made by Abdul Mahdi al-Ameedi, head of the federal Ministry of Oil’s contracts and licensing department, in the online industry portal, the Iraqi Oil Forum, indicate Baghdad’s current opinions on the matter.

*Production sharing contract* An an agreement between a government and an oil company that says they both share in production costs. The contractor typically pays for exploration, development and production costs of an oil field. They will eventually get their money back because of an agreement made about how much of the oil revenue they will be paid. While an oil company takes on more risk and financial burden here (say, if the oil is not found), they may also benefit from higher revenues once the oil starts flowing.
Asked if production sharing contracts, or PSCs as they are also known, were problematic, he replied that: “the state considers that production-sharing contracts are illegal and unconstitutional since the Iraqi constitution stipulates that oil and gas in Iraq is the property of the Iraqi people. Since a PSC gives foreign companies the right to a portion of the production under the form of profit oil, they are considered in contravention [of] the current constitution.”

Judging by al-Ameedi’s comments, Baghdad seems to be doing what it can to make PSCs that Iraqi Kurdistan signed, look illegitimate. Not because they think PSCs are a bad idea or because they are less value for money for Iraq. Rather, they are bringing the Iraqi Constitution into it as a way of putting political pressure on Iraqi

Being pulled along a bit IMO by GKP (and the KRG announcements at the STEAM conference).

Lets hope this news puts some upward movement into the sp !!!!

Noted and broadly agreed. That said, I did buy another 15K @ 6.17 on Friday..... maybe a bit soon but we'll see. Either way no worries at that price SFAIAC in the medium to long term.

Fitch downgrades the planet and Moody's downgrades Fitch!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9271371/Debt-crisis-as-it-happened-May-17-2012.html

... Mr Cameron,is this all Her Majesty has for this month's budget?
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01767/cash-money-pounds_1767996c.jpg

....'fraid so, Ma'am
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02213/cameron2_2213147c.jpg

...Daft, i call it, so what the f0ck am i to live on !
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02185/Rehn_2185800c.jpg

....Ve have Vays of making you agree
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02096/wolfgang_2096193c.jpg

....Nothing like a drop of oil, cures everything!
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02098/gm_2098623c.jpg

....to predict which way this is heading.....The uncertain markets and 'Greece' will cause many pi's to scupper to the safety of cash. And, i have some cash waiting to pile into PCI and a few other stocks.
Knowing when, will be the tricky bit. So, it'll be averaging down for me, but not yet,imo!

Anyone able to find the true bottom can give themselves a big pat on the back.

AGM 12th June...might have further news of farm out...speculation should lift the sp..

EARTHLY

What,s more mind boggling is that the day before the bail out the individuals that borrowed that money were ultimately responsible for the debt but now the tax payer is.

Yes and £1.4 trillion was credit card debt in that figure of £2.32 trillion..mind boggling when you consider what the bankers are drawing in bonuses and other benefits now..as with regards Treason..I don't think it is still on the satute book....mores the pity II

EARTHLY

From The ES bill this is the truth of it.

Britain's debt has hit a record £2.3 trillion after number-crunchers included bank bailouts in the official figures for the first time.

The Office for National Statistics said including the liabilities of the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group on its balance sheet had added £1.3 trillion to the UK's net debt.

Nationalised Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley were already in the figures but the latest addition takes the grand total to £2.32 trillion, equivalent to 154% of the UK's entire national output.

But stripping out the taxpayers' efforts to prop up the banking sector, better news on the nation's creaking public finances offered a few crumbs of comfort for the coalition today after the UK's shock contraction during the final quarter of 2010.

Good point bill, but may i just ask this question. 10 miniutes before G Brown made the decision to bailout the banks with tax payers money (world markets in panic) what was the country's annual deficit and was it not perfectly sustainable.

All well and good, but the fact of the matter is that Greece is bankrupt anyway. The only way Greece can get back on its feet is to leave the Euro. The Euro was always wrong from the beginning as all the financial people said. But the politicians wanted it and they had the power.

The UK recovered once we left the ERM. That is until Gordon Brown screwed everything up. An act of treason if ever there was.

This is by far the most important news today IMHO.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/uk-greece-idUKBRE8440DC20120517

All IMHO.

it's the next support level on the weekly chart.

I would be prepared to top up, but only if they went below 6p as when i bought in i thought i had enough shares. Stocks the across the board look to be in for a rough ride. The Greek concerns for the markets is genuinely scary, but i'm sure pi's will be topping up when we see the bottom. The lows will have to be tested a few times before confidence returns. IF/WHEN Greece defaults, then.........mayhem?

Who knows.......maybe a chance to spread your spare cash around a few tasty AIM stocks?

Where do you pluck 4.9 from and upon what basis??
I agree it could dip that low if the wheels fall off Europe, but surely no-one could call it to the nearest 0.1p!!

it's not negativity it's realism.the market is falling fast and aim stocks fall the fastest.4.9 is realistic imo.

BC

.i am looking for a good entry to pmg too
_____________________________

Isn't everyone !!

You would have more chance in taking me out for a pint.

The last PMG train left the day before yesterday...IMO

EARTHLY

Daryl Guppy, "Accepting probability outcomes "

however probabilties are covered in Quantum Theory and to quote Einstein,He (god ) does not play dice.. other than to say, cause and effect will also produce an RNS..which in this case, I prefer.

EARTHLY

10% !!!

I don't believe for a second that the utterings of BC can affect the shareprice, even if it did lead a few PIs to sell...however I agree that she only ever appears on here when the price is down and only ever posts negativity. Plus she brings the worst out of a certain other poster.

From my point of view this is still a 'buy' and I am continuing to top up at these prices whenever funds allow.

I have just been researching your history! And you are a complete deramper who is only interested in knocking PCI for your own gains! Your statements are designed to get PI to sell so YOU can get in cheap. Pr--t on ignore

I disagree, the next fib point is 6.95, I see a hammer forming indicating an upward movement.

hi earthly,hope you are well.i feel news of good things here is far away and the sp will succumb to the summer doldrums.i am looking for a good entry to pmg too.

Unless...of course..there is positive news re the 2nd farm out...Italy and seismic results from Kurdistan...OR EVEN THE price of drizzle cake rising to untold values...LOL

EARTHLY

it is the next support level on the weekly chart,a lack of news plus general market sentiment will i believe drive the price down to 4.9 during the summer doldrums.

...at 4.9p......how come?

at 4.9p

but cannot find the estimate in SP up if/when Italy switch on offshore exp.

so 4p, but wave 5 are long like 3 so target 3-4p

http://i.szoter.com/a4a79d3060ecca44

jed3....nice plug for GKP, in fact i made a nice bit on them and still waiting for the big move up on t/o.
Profits from GKP came into here, PCI

Always good to read your Hickey interactions Swlatz - thanks.

I'm not invested here currently but like to keep an eye on what's going on. Moved my cash elsewhere (GKP) given the timeline of potential news being H2 heavy. Hoping to get back in at a decent entry point ahead of 2nd farmout and further Kurdistan news.

GLA, JED

Afternoon Tom, hope you are well.

Lots of movement with the SP at the moment.

Do you see this as just general market conditions or do you feel this is due to speculation around the unrest in Algeria?

I have also read that the Italians are potentially loosing their restrictions to off sure exploration. I had expected this to have lifted the share price but its doesn't seem to have.

Any comment on that?

Lastly, probably one you cant comment on but, there is speculation of a possible take over ahead of any further farm out deals.

Just noise?

Hope to hear back from you soon.

Many thanks,

Swaltz

==================================================================

Hi Swaltz

Hope all well with you. The market is in silly season right now alright, don’t think it’s anything PCI specific – in fact we have met most of our larger shareholders over the last 6 weeks or so and all are relatively comfortable with the status of Project, 2011 Results, Seismicin progress in Kurdistan, etc etc.

We haven’t been asked any particularly pointed or concerned questions regarding Algerian unrest, though there are Parliamentary elections going on at present there hasn’t been any particular issues or concerns for our team on the ground or our project’s progress with Sonatrach, etc – business as usual in all respects.

In Italy there is certainly a positive attitude on the part of the new government in relation to facilitating exploration, shortening approval timelines and helping Italy become more self sufficient from an Energy perspective – all positive for Elsa, but no clear process or timelines yet. You might be interested in the article set out below, if you haven’t already seen it (me and my big mouth!).

Finally as regards takeover, I suppose the talk comes from the fact that we are doing farmout presentations at present to larger Companies regarding Algeria – one of the issues we highlight is that with the SP where it is, PCI might be a comparatively attractive takeover for some of these counterparties, though obviously that’s not our intention, and our confidentiality agreements contain relatively limiting language in this regard….


Italian Offshore Drilling: Will They, Won't They?

by Jon Mainwaring
Rigzone Staff
Tuesday, April 24, 2012


The ramifications of 2010's Deepwater Horizon accident and subsequent oil spill spread far beyond the Gulf of Mexico. While companies such as BP and Transocean are still involved in legal cases connected to the disaster, the wider offshore oil industry has been encouraged to take a good, hard look at its health, safety and environmental practices in many locations where deepwater drilling occurs around the world.

But another consequence of the Macondo spill has been the moratoriums called by various governments who are concerned that they do not have the resources required to respond to a similar spill. The United States itself introduced a ban on all deepwater offshore drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf following the disaster, although this was lifted after six months.

One country that brought in its own ban on drilling offshore, and not just deepwater drilling, was Italy. Soon after the Macondo incident, Italy proposed a moratorium that came into force in August 2010.

Italy's Legislative Decree No. 128/10 (known as DL 128) prohibited offshore exploration and production activities involving liquid hydrocarbons within 5 miles of the Italian coast. Crucially, this applied even to then-ongoing operations that previously had been authorized. In addition, offshore drilling activities located within 12 miles of certain designated protected marine and coastal areas was also banned.

And, of course, this legislation caused a lot of headaches for many companies that were drilling, or had plans to drill, offshore Italy, who have had to put projects on ice.

Elsa On Ice

"Obviously in general it's a major deterrent to investment and an interruption of

peep1253.....If we knew this was going to do nothing but rise,we would be selling the house and wife and kids to buy every share we could.
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Pleeeeze, not so much of 'selling the house',

''If I were you, I'd stay away from investing directly in the stockmarket, asking questions like that.''

Lucky888, have to agree with Buffy's comment above.

If we knew this was going to do nothing but rise,we would be selling the house and wife and kids to buy every share we could.

If we knew this was definately going to go lower we would have sold at 8p or now at 6.8p.

Im afraid one has to go by how you think this, or any share, will go in the medium term and not bother about the ups and downs . Its where it will end up thats important.

Basically, if we knew the answers to your questions regarding this or any share, we would be multi millionaires.

On the other hand the only people that are likely to answer with a definate 'this will go lower or this will shoot up, are rampers or derampers. The rest of us have to go with gut feeling and comment on what we think might happen

'Now looking at the charts it has hit 8p - is the current fall to 6.68 the bottom and should I jump in now, or am I too late?'

If I were you, I'd stay away from investing directly in the stockmarket, asking questions like that.

Buffy

This is one of the of the main reasons for the shareprice fall last week on uncertainty that Algeria could have an Arab Spring

All well again and stable in Alegria

bump... for those that did not get to see this frist time round!

Kurdistan Oil Consolidation Amid high oil prices, the oil super-majors are recognizing the difficulties of increasing supplies organically and are taking the path of discovery, and pushing into new frontiers such as Kurdistan, as related in the earlier article. Former BP CEO Tony Hayward's Vallares has merged with Turkish Genel Energy (GEGYF.PK) in fall of 2011. Exxon Mobil (XOM) announced its acquisition of six exploration blocks in Kurdistan, in November of 2011, incurring the wrath of the Iraqi central government. Chevron (CVX), Total (TOT), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and TNK-BP (Russian private company) are among the oil majors making moves in Kurdistan. Quite simply, the oil majors are moving to the northern Kurdistan part of Iraq, as the oil agreements there have more generous terms than the southern Iraqi agreements have returned, as France's Total observes: "It's a place where there are important oil and gas reserves and contracts are better" than in the rest of Iraq, he said. As the oil majors push into Kurdistan, they are creating strong speculative interest as to the possible oil juniors that will benefit from this. "Acquisitions, relinquishment, consolidation expected"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/370931-investing-in-billion-barrel-oil-discoveries-in-kurdistan

N.B. Click on the link under "Oleaginous Candidates" for a large scale Oil map of Kurdistan