(PDG) Pendragon
-
12.12
-0.25
(-2%)
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Discussion
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| Wed 19:36 | ||||
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However SP is holding up very well with no profit taking AND results are due (i think) 21st February so I expect SP to continue climb up to then at least. Whatever reason for their stake-building, Obey obviously think SP is undervalued at this level!
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| Wed 19:00 | ||||
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I'm not sure that the 30% threshold applies to a 3rd party fund manager. In which case they won't be forced to make a bid.
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| Wed 17:59 | ||||
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It's been a week since Odey announced their increase in holding by 24m shares. They were short by 36m shares to reach the 30% shareholding. Given the sustained high volumes in the last week - some days reaching 10m shares traded, I presume they must be close to reaching the 30% threshold, when they will have to mandatorily make a bid for the company.
It should happen soon I think. Any thoughts guys? Viv |
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| Wed 07:23 | ||||
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It was £1.00 years ago
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| Tue 09:05 | ||||
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The market is still very tough out there although January has shown an increase in customer interest.
Certainly capable of a movement upwards although a significant rise in the short term is only likely on rumour of a takeover |
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| Fri 22:34 | ||||
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Hi Vivan,
Thanks for the update, will watch with interest. Would love to think that after all these years we may at least get something out of the dragon apart from a lot of hot hair. Sounds as though i may be a bit better, my average share price is 4.25p managed to buy a load when they were around the 1.5-2.0p barrier which brought my average down loads. Would love to see this up around the 50p mark, dont laugh, its been there once so why not again at some stage. Again thanks for your reply lets hope it goes steady northwards. Fluff |
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| Thu 02:50 | ||||
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Fluff
The div payment will start if they satisfy some bank covenants. Since both debt level is going down and operating profits are reported to be improving, I expect a small interim div to be paid this year. But we all hope to be rewarded by some takeover activity soon. I have held this for a year or so now but bought a large stake at 7.35p so my average is down to 12p. I will hold it for longer unless the SP goes closer to 18p. GL, Viv |
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| 01-02-12 |
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Vivian, would like to ask as to what reason you give for dividend payments to start this year. As i have held PDG shares now for approx 4-5 years slowly building up to approx 290,000 i would be only to pleased to see some reward as this company doesnt rush forward to reward anyone from what i have witnessed. Also do you think we will see a reward this calender year or next, thanks in advance.
fluff |
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| 01-02-12 | ||||
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| 01-02-12 | ||||
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Given the major hikes in both volume and price in just 7 working days would mean that Odey already have a client. Thus a bid is forthcoming.
Also the 4 week volume shows trades of 77 million shares, but Odey accounts for only 24m of those. Others are also piling in in view of a takeover bid. Viv |
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| 01-02-12 | ||||
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Odey AM are hedge fund traders i reckon will buy up to 29.99% they will look to sell that stake to another either for control or consolidation with another company.[or already have a client in mind]
If no buyer is about in the time frame they have set then the shares will be off loaded at a substantial profit the small PI's that buy @ say 14p will see the price [in the later scenario] drop back to 10p ish. What we want is for OAM to sell their stake on at a good price that keeps the ball rolling, and then the profits if any can be taken. DYOR [seen it before] |
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| 31-01-12 | ||||
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So Odey Asset Management confirmed today that they have converted their 24m shares of CFDs into real shares and therefore they are the ones who have been buying in the last few weeks and pushed the SP up from 7.40p to 12p in trades today, an increase of 65% in just two weeks.
And yet even after the conversion of the CFDs completed on 30 Jan, there was trade of 11m shares on 31 Jan. That is they continue to buy large volumes. Only explanation for this is that they are building a stake of 30% so that they can make a bid for the company. Viv |
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| 31-01-12 | ||||
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I agree with you 100% about Odey AM (I have met them in the course of my business) and they often look at recovery plays - takeover is wishful thinking in my view (although I do own shares so hope I am wrong).
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| 31-01-12 | ||||
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Cleev,
For YE Dec11, EPS is estimated at 2.0p, With falling interest payments, I estimate the EPS to improve to 2.50p for this year and 3.0p for 2013. Based on this, I think 20p will be a good fair value. Viv |
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| 31-01-12 | ||||
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Vivan, in your opinion, what should the SP be to reach its fundamental value? 20p? Thanks.
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| 30-01-12 |
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When you value a PROFIT MAKING business, goodwill is irrelevant. You need to look at underlying profits. True, debt level is important. PDG is making good progress in addressing its debt level. Net debt/Ebitda ratio is to fall to 2 at Dec11 and to 1.5 by Dec13.
The company is improving on underlying profits, most profits coming from after sales and used car sales and therefore sustainable. Interest charges are to fall, thus Profits will increase over future years. Dividend payments to restart this year. Plus the Share price is trading at lows and below its fundamental value. Large net free cash flow will start in 2012. The company is a Recovery/Turnaround Play. So many reasons why a Takeover is well possible now rather than later when Share price increases. Viv |
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| 30-01-12 | ||||
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You seem to forget the shape of PDG balance sheet. Not a pretty sight with masses of Goodwill and Debt.
Lookers would be ruined if it bid. Odey maybe making a major mistake gambling with this one DYOR |
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| 30-01-12 | ||||
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odey manage money for clients in funds (and maybe managed accounts). i'm not sure about them building a stake for a 3rd party. they're not a bank, they're a fund manager. clearly at 30% they have signficant sway over what happens but they're not going to take it over nor are they holding it for 3rd party. i stand open to be corrected.
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| 29-01-12 | ||||
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Difficult to believe that there wont be a bid of some sort for this company in the near future.
Lookers are perhaps not the ones as one thing that Pdg have demonstrated is that there is an optimum size for a dealer group which should not be exceeded. The Vardy acquisition perhaps demonstrated that if you go too big in this sector, you lose control. That said, Lookers may be in need of a reason to demonstrate to their shareholders why the offer from the Petchey lead consortium was such a bad deal. If we are to believe the press, the consortium offered 70p a share which the Lookers board rejected. Ever since then the Lookers sp has traded at a discount of 30% to the offer price and as such the Lookers board may be in need of a strategy that will placate their shareholders. |
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| 28-01-12 | ||||
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I presume Odey is building up a stake for a client? Lookers springs to mind amongst others. Current SP is on PE of 4-5 so a takeout price would have to be near 20p IMO...
If SP continues to motor up (no pun intended) next week, the PDG should issue a RNS to clarify matters relating to "share price movement"... |
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| 28-01-12 | ||||
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This is a follow on to my earlier post.
After doing some research and calculations, I have gathered the following info: Odey Asset Management has been steadily building up a large stake in Pendragon, particularly in the last 3 months. As at 28 Nov 2011, they held 27.47% of shareholding. As per Takeover Panel City Code on Takeovers any shareholder owning 30% of a company will have to make a mandatory bid offer for the other 70% shares. Thus Odey was short of 2.53% to make a mandatory bid. 2.53% is equal to 36 millions shares. Should my intuition be right, it is well possible that the recent hike in volumes may be due to Odey buying shares to build up the required 30% target. It is well possible we might have a bid for Pendragon as early as next week. Any thoughts guys? Viv |
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| 25-01-12 | ||||
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Yes, something is stirring, some sort of tie-up with Lookers may make sense. Both companies are undervalued imo
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| 25-01-12 |
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There is Odey Asset building up Large stake in the company in last 3 months. They also hold large stakes in Lookers. And these two companies have lots of synergies to achieve if they get together. Pendragon is making profits from after sales and Lookers make profits from Spare parts sales. could be Odey have got plans for Pendragon.....
Viv |
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| 25-01-12 | ||||
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Is someting going down, average share trading gone from a few 100'000 a day to millions.......
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| 23-01-12 | ||||
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12p soon...perhaps?
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| 22-01-12 | ||||
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very strong at the end of last Friday, should continue this week
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| 22-01-12 | ||||
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Could the SP be breaking out of a range? Maybe a steady increase back to 10p could happen this week!
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| 21-01-12 | ||||
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Could not find a date. Last year full year results were announced on 22 Feb.
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| 20-01-12 | ||||
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They are not having my 60,000 shares! LOL! When is the next IMS/Results due anyone??
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| 20-01-12 | ||||
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has reached 8p and pating a rest but now already at 8.5p and climbing
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| 20-01-12 |
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Have you guys noticed large volumes of trades in the last week or so?
And then someone messing around and selling 2 or 3 shares at the cheap. Typical strategy to keep the share price at bay and buy your shares at cheap. At a PE of 3.5, better hold and not sell your shares. Large institutional investors bought tyhr rights issue shares at 10p. They will do everything to push the share back to over 10P. Just need to be patient, and if you can buy some more while the share price is dead cheap. The Company is putting its house in order and this Company is a Recovery Play. GL Viv |
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| 29-12-11 |
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Let me make a counter argument. By the way I don't own shares and I don't work for PDG.
In a long term down wave people still needs cars. Instead of buying a new car a second hand car becomes a serious consideration. Car dealer's in this area have been hammered by internet so why might they have a competitive advantage all of a sudden? Has anything changed? 1) There is money in repairing and maintaining second hand cars, not much bus some and if you can drive out economies of scale - did you see what i did there :-). 2) Financing cars. If you need financing for the car then Banks may now not give you the money. I think PDG and Lookers are trying to step into this niche. Doing a rights issue now might look like a good long term choice (taking your medicine early). Buy up the weakest to get economies of scale and then eat into the margin of the stronger ones. Build brand loyalty by offering payment plans and services (one shop stop for car value). |
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| 28-12-11 |
Sell
Re: Status Quo.
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worse than Greece they have thought this out is the " Way " to go
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| 20-12-11 | ||||
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I was very surprised to read of Pendragon back on the acquisition trail having purchased Scotthall BMW in Leeds from Jardine. With the aparent inadaquacies of the company and management team which seem well documented on this board I was genuinely amazed to hear that BMW were prepared to allow this to go through. Am I missing something / can anyone please offer a rationale for this development?
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| 20-12-11 |
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Down down, deeper and down. Probably worth a punt at 2p . Redundancies happening, staff bailing out left right and centre. Not good in these bleak times and with shambolic management throughout it is hardly surprising things are falling apart. Bit like Greece really!
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| 25-10-11 | ||||
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Looks like the rights issue hangover has cleared
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| 14-10-11 | ||||
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RBS Pendragon PLC 14/10/11 09:53
Initiates/Starts Buy 2 14.00 http://www.brokerforecasts.com/broker-notes/ |
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| 03-10-11 | ||||
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Sorry folks need to correct myself, between 9.00-9.50p i think this should now read.
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| 28-09-11 | ||||
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Hi wish i had done the same and sold mine, is this now the state of play for PDG constantly hovering around the 9.5-10.0p, never going to see the dizzy heights of 40-50p a share again, RIP the dragon.
IMHO of course |
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| 20-09-11 | ||||
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September 20, 2011 7:34 pm
Small caps: By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder Elsewhere, there was heavy trading in Lookers , the car dealer that recently received a takeover approach from a consortium led by serial stakebuilder Jack Petchey. Over 9m shares changed hands after an institution sold a large chunk of stock via broker Peel Hunt. There was also talk that Lookers could receive another approach. Lookers rose 3.4 per cent to 53¾p. In the same sector Pendragon firmed 0.1 per cent to 9.96p. Traders reckon underwriters to its recent rights issue might have placed some of the stock they were forced to take up. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8f2bcda-e38d-11e0-8f47-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1YWcUxUnt |
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The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements. Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in. Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.
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