(RDSB.L) Royal Dutch Shell PLC Buy/Sell

Sorry not quite answering your question but chucking some info - quite a bit of speculation as well - in to the pot which might interest you, might not.

Last year I was considering infrastructure plays. The reason being that when the bottle necks in commodity mining eventually get solved - e.g. we find enought oil to slate China's demand. The next bottle neck we will hit will be transporting the blasted stuff.

I was looking at Pipelines, tankers, ports etc. Not just oil but anything that transported coal, gas, iron ore etc.

I found out that GS were entering this market. Sadly I could only invest in their infrastructure fund if I was a rich investor. I'm poor sadly http://www.iii.co.uk/common/icons/discussions/emoticons/sad.gif

I don't think they are looking for capital appreciation. What I think they are doing is buying the infrastructure because 1) its cheap 2) you get to see real volumes. If you own the pipes coming out of Saudi to Europe and America you can pretty accurately measure oil supply minute by minute. This is very valuable information for your commodity trading desk - you only have to beat other traders by hours when it come to information.

Same idea if you own the ports that ship iron ore from Australia? You do have to worry about people who stock pile but why not buy chinesse truck companies or chinesse wharehouses etc. You can then track when they run down or run up their stock piles. You can cross validate against electricity and coal consumption.

Is this insider information. I don't think so but it is monopoly abuse.

You may want to look at GS commodity desk in the 10k. Contributed a lot to their 10billion profit.

Anyway, I also found out that as BP has moved out of North Sea Oil it has kept ownership of the pipes connecting the wells to Aberdeen. Not very exciting assets unless you realise BP does not just do hedging but also proprietry trading! Their trading desk is intimately linked with GS!

I know for a fact Shell does some very complicated commodity trading and I suspect they do proprietry trading. There is therfore hidden value in this company but sadly also hidden risks. I've not looked into the accounts but I am tempted to.

PS I don't think WB is buying the train company to harvest transit data.

PPS He is definitely not buying it because he belives in America's growth. If anything he is expecting stagnant growth. Possibly post for another day.

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3 Nov 2009, 2022 hrs IST, PTI





NEW DELHI: Essar Oil said it has time till month end to conclude talks for acquisition of Royal Dutch Shell's three refineries in Europe.


"We have entered into exclusivity agreement with Shell," Essar Oil CEO and Managing Director Naresh K Nayyar told reporters here.

Under the pact, Shell during the validity of the agreement will talk only with Essar for sale of its Stanlow refinery in northwest England and the Heide and Hamburg units in Germany.

"The exclusivity period is till November 30," he said. The Hamburg unit has capacity to process 107,000 barrels per day of crude, while Heide has a capacity of 83,000 barrels a day. Stanlow, Britain's second-largest refinery, can process 272,000 barrels a day.

Essar is considering buying three Shell refineries as part of its strategy to have a refining capacity of at least one million bpd globally, Nayyar said.

The company currently operates a 280,000 bpd refinery at Vadinar in Jamnagar district of Gujarat and has 50 per cent stake in 80,000 bpd refinery at Mombasa in Kenya. The Vadinar refinery is to be expanded to 700,000 bpd by 2012.

"For the time being we will not be holding discussions with any third party other than Essar. However, this does not guarantee a sale. It is too early to comment on timescales," a Shell spokesperson said last week.

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Nettle

Yes, you're quite correct; thanks for putting me right and politely.
My apologies for posting such inaccurate information.

I was just reflecting after sending: "Hang on, should be somewhere around 6% for the annual dividend yield; even BP's comes well under 9%." (Then other urgent tasks preoccupied me.)

And indeed it is: At a SP of 1800p it would generate 5.7%pa given the latest payout is repeated each quarterly dollop.

Quoting from the Q3 Dividend News release on this site:

"Dividends on B shares will be paid, by default, in pounds sterling at the rate of 25.65p per B share. Holders of B shares who have validly submitted euro currency elections by October 28, 2009 will be entitled to a dividend of Euro 0.2845 per B share."

Having said, although that puts the rest of my last missive into a different perspective, it doesn't wholly invalidate it.
The yield is high, especially given the prevailing circumstances and Shell's recent results report in particular.

I remain interested to learn to others views regarding my queries.

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Yes, the dividend for b shares is quoted in cents, and paid in pence; at today's prices 42c = 25.4p.
Regards

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