| 16:08 |
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I think many of the big players would love to have Tullow's portfolio on their books, however not at these prices. Would have to fall considerably to trigger a bid.
A current bid would have to be in the region of 6.5 - 7.0 billion pounds.
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| 06:53 |
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BP? They are about to get hoofed out of russia and they will be desparate to build reserves. TNK represented 25% of their business and its not looking good. That said most of the majors have a reserves issue.
I can see a sizable player, one of the top 12 having a pop, and then doing what they do best which is project manage a discovery to production.
It would be a good short term boost for the share price but ultimately leave much of Tullows value on the table.
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| Tue 19:48 |
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Tullow Oil, Heritage Exploring for Oil in Northern Uganda
By Fred Ojambo
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Tullow Oil Plc, the U.K. explorer with projects on three continents, and Canada-based Heritage Oil Corp. are jointly exploring for oil in Uganda's northern region after conflict in the area ended, the Energy Ministry said.
The exploration follows two years of peace in the region, which was previously a stronghold of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army, Daudi Migereko, the Ugandan minister of energy, said in a phone interview late yesterday from the capital, Kampala.
The exploration license in the northern region is in addition to the others the companies have at Lake Albert, bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo. Tullow is also building an 85-megawatt power plant which will feed into the national grid.
Peace returned to northern Uganda after the rebels fled to neighboring Congo in 2005. Uganda negotiated with the movement from July 2006 to April under the mediation of the South Sudanese government. Lord's Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony, who is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, failed to sign the final peace accord in April because of concerns about his safety.
``Heritage Oil and Tullow were licensed in 2004 to explore oil in northern Uganda,'' Migereko said. ``They are carrying out surveys in the area in Amuru district.''
Tullow plans to construct an oil refinery in Uganda's western district of Hoima, with production expected to begin in the first half of next year, Finance Minister Ezra Suruma said June 12.
The refinery, with a capacity of 4,000 barrels of oil a day, will produce heavy oils, kerosene and diesel, and consider gasoline production later if the oil flow is good, the company said Jan. 4.
To contact the reporter on this story: Fred Ojambo in Kampala via the Johannesburg bureau at + abolleurs@bloomberg.net.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aovvm3_aDnq4&refer=canada
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| Tue 19:33 |
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As Tlw share price has fallen 21% from its all time high and the trade volumes seemed to have gone up significantly today does anybody think there is a preditor sniffing around? If so, who might that be and at what price?
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| Tue 16:29 |
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What a silly article, the business coverage in that paper has really deteriorated. There is no obvious linkgage between Tullow and Ryanair so its silly to link them in that way.They both have strong Irish connection but thats not a reason for divesting from one to the other. What is of more interest is to know what value has Tullow across the price spectrum of a barrel of oil say from $100 a to $150. Consensus appears to be emerging that oil will drop back over the next few months barring political fall out over Iran etc. So at various oil barrel prices what value will the markets give Tullow apart from the residual exploration value. I am in for the long run and see a floor at £6.50 and an upside up to £10/£12. In the meanwhile I would expect a roller coaster ride as dramatic rise and falls in oil, political upheavals etc will cause swings and roundabouts. Oil may drop in price but the conventional and uncoventional wisdom is that it will continue to be highly unstable over the next 3-5 years and longer. If you want real excitement go into the banks or even airlines!
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| Tue 14:37 |
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Synchrouk,
Ernst & Young, for the ITEM Club, predict that the oil price will hold up in the short term and may hit $150/bbl.
Then it forecasts that it will decline to $100/bbl and hold there, 12months out to 3 years from now, due to recession/decline on demand side.
see
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/20/content_8705811.htm
This was also briefed on BBC's Working Lunch yesterday
see replay of program re:Adam's market report...6mins in
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00cp36n
Take your pick!
Either way the price above $100/bbl is good news for oil sector/stocks. The problem IMO is that the shorters are in amongst the oil sector now and it's like a falcon amongst the pidgeons. However Tullow is a racing pidgeon of pedigree with a great Ghanaian fancy!!
The current debt is a burden and so is the large and widespread portfolio, this needs to be balanced out.
By 2010 if Jubilee in Ghana is onstream as planned then Tullow will be a significantly different company
IMO
bon chance all
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| Tue 10:22 |
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What a stupid article. Ok the oil price is to high so Ryannair grounds planes and demand drops. Ryannair starts flying again and demand goes up and so does oil. There is a tightness in supply and rough current demand levels, its as simple as that.
As a side bar Ryannair apart from being an awful airline with spectacularly bad service (and they aren't that cheap really) are in a difficult spot. O'leary was all smug last christmas on bloomberg because he had hedged oil at $65 at it was $90+. But now he doesn't know what to do. If he hedges at say $130 and it goes to $200 he's the Dog's Bs but if it goes to $100 then that $30 differencial will wipe them out. Personally I'd say good riddence.
I think you'd have to be mad to but your money near any airline at the moment.
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| Mon 17:17 |
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i agree 760 is a vital point as far as the chart is concerned.howver, i would personally not feel comfortable basing my trades purely on the merits of the chart. under normal volatlity they are a good measure of how people feel about a stock but there are too many other factors dictating a shares movement at present for my liking. imo tullow is a buy at current levels and lower. i have bought today and shall buy more if we fall further. i have little doubt i will be rewarded well by next year
all the best
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| Mon 17:16 |
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My view is that nothing has changed - whilst we in the West may cut back on oil-bred luxuries the East has secured manufactoring dominance and a rising standard of living whilst cheap oil is declining and the harder to extract stuff not yet on line. Value in TLW must rise more reliably than some miniature Irish buccaneer of the air.
IMHO.
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| Mon 15:33 |
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| Mon 13:12 |
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| Mon 12:18 |
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| Mon 12:01 |
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| Mon 10:14 |
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I dont think global Oil demand has ever fallen...mab there is a short term supply boost as had been predicted some months ago. This ector depends on whether you are medium term bullish about Oil prices(e.g. peak oil believer)...I am.
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| Mon 09:54 |
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| Mon 09:04 |
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The same forces that drove oil from $70 to $147 a barrel are still at play, obviously the price went a bit too high and some demand was /is being destoyed. Hey the price mechanism works. The question is; what is the equilibrium price?
My view is that we may see a fall to about $100 which will start to stimulate demand again, equilibrium about $125. However that is now as we are about to enter a US led recession. In 12 months time if the US starts to gather steam oil will start to push up again. Do not forget the exploding world middle class, they want cars and mod cons too.SC
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| Sun 18:51 |
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| Sun 11:02 |
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| Sun 11:01 |
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| Sun 10:37 |
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Buy Ryanair but sell Tullow on the back of oil hikes
Sunday July 20 2008
LAST week's sharp fall in the price of oil reinforces the view that, at over $140 a barrel, we had passed through the pain barrier.
With airlines worldwide grounding planes and consumers cutting back on energy consumption, the future is one of reduced demand and lower prices. Good news for airlines and other big energy users but bad news for oil companies.
The announcements from Ryanair last week were a dramatic illustration of how oil prices were hitting energy-intensive businesses.
On Tuesday, Michael O'Leary's men announced they were grounding four aircraft at Dublin Airport next winter and reducing the number of flights out of Dublin by 18 per cent. On Thursday, Ryanair said that it would ground eight jets at Stansted next winter and cut the number of flights out of there by 14 per cent.
The market had barely digested that news when, 87 minutes later, Ryanair revealed that it was temporarily shutting seven of its bases, most of them in eastern Europe, next November and December.
The logic behind the Ryanair announcements was brutally simple. With oil prices so high it made more sense to leave these aircraft sitting idle on the tarmac than to offer the cheap fares which would be necessary to fill them.
However, instead of falling sharply on the news of these cutbacks, the Ryanair share price actually rose. It ended the week up almost 25 per cent at €3.13.
Meanwhile, shares in oil company Tullow, which late last month briefly overtook AIB to become Ireland's third most valuable company, have since fallen almost 20 per cent. This fall continued last week with shares shedding over a quid to drop under a tenner for the first time since May.
This fall came despite the flow of good news coming out of Tullow, with the firm announcing excellent drilling results in Ghana and Uganda recently.
So why have the shares of a large, and virtually unhedged, energy consumer such as Ryanair been rising while those of a large energy producer such as Tullow are falling? These share price movements are almost certainly related to the oil market's belated return to sanity this week.
When NYSE crude oil prices briefly topped $147 two weeks ago (July 11), it seemed as if nothing could halt the upward march of oil prices.
Goldman Sachs was predicting $200 a barrel within two years, while Alexey Miller, the boss of Russia's largest energy company Gazprom, forecast an oil price of $250 by next year.
Then, this week, reality intervened. By the end of this week, crude oil prices were back to $130 as the markets woke up to realisation that a slowing world economy would rapidly reduce demand. The US is now consuming 900,000 fewer barrels of oil a day than it was this time last year.
With the huge run-up in oil prices now likely to be followed by a significant drop in prices, investors should sell their Tullow shares and buy Ryanair instead.
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