(TW-.L) Taylor Wimpey PLC Buy/Sell

got my knickers in a twist sorry

jojo

---

More |  View thread (1) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

ay-up mate

just being draging the dog around cleethorpes beech with the kids and had time to gather my thoughts, i think im going to look deeper into 11/12/130 and 131, your right about normanton great location, shabby building just needs a botox.

the guide prices for all of them when placed on a 10 year baseline are low and offer a good return over the lifetime of the lease.

i hold 50k in TW and brought in march so showing a healthy profit, the recent losses dont bother me as long as they hollow out at 35p, anything below that and i will be geting concerned or in toping up.

one piece of advice from my granddad (the old bugg**) i listened to was "buy land there not making it anymore" which i think for today should be "buy commercial property there not making it any cheaper"

jojo

ps enjoy your holiday, im going on a cruise (under protest) with the outlaws over xmas

---

More |  View thread (2) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

ay-up mr j

the problem was that everyone thought the good times were going to last forever, with gordon brown mouthing about the end of boom-and-bust etc, i can name a few of my friends that wasted the cream and over expanded/lost track of the bottom line.

every development i carry out is planned costed down to capets and i have a rough idea as to the end cost per unit before i have laid a brick, alot of builders were harping on about value per unit and lost track of the costs involved, sarah beany and the idiots on her programs, i can name a number of developers who were acting the same with no idea of labour and build cost.

it amazed me at the golf club how many new members introduced themselves as property developers, alot of them are now back in their former professions having lost a fortune and their dreams.

for me pubs are the future of my build-development business which offer a high reward position higher risk along with my leased banks/shops and my care homes which are lower risk and the money i have made in shares (apart from raymarine) this has probably being my most sucessful year.

i cannot understand anyone siting on large amounts of equity in a business/property when it can be used to raise capital to buy a low risk commercial property such as a bank with a stable tenent (hsbc in my case) leased until 2037, in the worst case you still have the building and probably debt-free by the time the lease expires.

i have grabed a few pubs on good sites in ok (ish)areas, i agree they are mostly in poor sites/locations you just have to be selective and offer low prices and see what pops up

anyway rant over jojo

---

More |  View thread (5) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

I think it just reacts to general economic sentiment. Also although some of the builders look cheap they are actually on pretty high PE ratios. The good news is all in the price for now imho.

---

More |  View thread (2) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Guys, you seem to have dropped 20% in a week, I have looked for news to support this but found nothing, can anybody shed some light on this.

---

More |  View thread (2) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Almost free hold 999yrs.
I like the look of lot 12. Prominent position, as it says.
Location, Location as they say is everything.
Uplift in rental value must be very good if the post office is paying 10k for Half that amount of Sq ft, as its only 12k for the bank. (my opinion)
Not that I know the area at all but putting the post code in Google maps and zooming in. There is plenty of parking in front and behind 100m, Railway station 200m, in the center of town.
The only thing which would caught my eye is the 4 straps running front to back between 1st 2nd floor. Historical bowing to the front (bomb damage from the war maybe?) Full repairing insuring lease, so I am sure its been checked out.
Lot 109 was on the news. Nice little family business for someone few 2-3 hour shifts ea. Nice cottage and mooring business. Make a nice little picnic spot cafe with some extra parking. I would up the charges 5p car 20p double decker bus...... Drive me mad all that change need a wheel barrow.
lol.
Lot 130 a big old chunk of building for the cash. Is it listed? Don't know if Green king own any of their premises. But if they do I am sure they will be after this. Pay for itself in 10yrs.
I won't be at the commercial but will have to leave a proxy at the residential as on hols for Xmas same day 15th. Gl

---

More |  View thread (2) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Well Mr J
We all know someone who got it wrong. The idea is not to be that person. DYOR. The only thing I have ever lost on with regards to property is T.W. Thanks for your 2 pennies worth. you seem to have a lot of them.

---

More |  View thread (5) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

jojo8939 & podgy1

Thanks for the anecdotals - a lot more meaningful than TA and charts IMO.

I know a few builders who have gone bankrupt buying pubs for way over fair value. Pubs tend to be located in busy areas / crossroads and should not command a premium since they are rarely in prime areas. I think the days of buying pubs and whacking overpriced apartments are on them are over.

A local builder I know bought a pub for £600,000 in a particularly rough area. He ended up coming to an agreement with the bank to hand the land over to the bank, to avoid any formal bankruptcy / insovency. The bank have apparantly had bids no higher than £280,000 for this land.

The builder has now started a new company and is trying to buy back the land that made him 'almost' bankrupt the first time round! The irony of him (possibly) going under twice on the same piece of over valued land is just too delicious to be true.

I think they key to realise the value of the productive factors (land/labour/mats) all have to work backwards from the price someone is prepared to pay for a house, and not assume that land has some magical value.

---

More |  View thread (5) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

ay-up mate, when great minds meet and all that!

lot 70-73 would have interested me if they were freehold, i can see great potential in them to make a packet for someone.

the lots that interest me are 11/12/which are banks and i really like lot 131 which i will be bidding on. thers is a steady income stream from these assets for years to come is and it is unlikely that the banks will move when the lease is due to expire, because of the long leases RBS will take a lower deposit when arranging a loan.

i really like lot 52 as well, i have bimbled over to neath twice in the last few weeks to look at it and if the price is right then i will be bidding.

lot 130 is a pub in a old cinema in not the best part of hull but because of the long lease and the fact that greene king are the tennent is worth a closer look, it is near to where i own a small block of flats so i know it well. Hull is going through a massive re-generation at the moment and there is a real buzz about the place.

fancy owning a toll bridge lot 109?

i was planning to move to america with my family, we have now decided to stay put as i feel that there is a real opportunity to make some real dosh in the next few years as things improve.

check out paramountinvestments.co.uk for cheap pubs for sale as i said earlier there are some fantastic bargains available

if you are going to be at the auction im the chubby brown haired bloke mid-thirties (ish) in the sporting jacket (left the lab, flat cap and gun at home) bidding on the few lots that i have mentioned mainly lot 131.

good luck and send back another bb with your thoughts mate.

---

More |  View thread (1) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

I think people tend to forget about companies prospects when looking at what they think is going to happen in the short term, so I thought i would post why i think companies like TW and LAND (property companies) will be good companies to hold for the long term.

First I want to point out the two things that pushed up the prices of properties in the last boom, first it was the opening up of the credit markets, and secondly it was the shortage of homes for buyers, now what i think people forget is that the only thing that has really changed from these points is that the credit markets have dried up , there is still a clear shortage of homes on the market (hence why the property prices market has shown a small recovery, as there are more buyers than sellers).

So if you think within 5 years that the credit markets will recover, then clearly companies like this are a sure buy as there properties value (hence NAV) will increase and there margins and profits will improve quite rapidly. And in my opinion and it would appear many of the property companies and investment companies, the credit markets will improve over this time hence why there are buying up properties now when the prices are subdued and are will to just sit on them if they cannot get rent, it is also why there are adding to land banks and are again willing to just sit on them, as do not forget as well property is seen as a protector against inflation also.

Anyway my point is if investment companies and private buyers seem happy and intent to use their free cash to by property just to sit on, then surely this must be a good sign that these will be worth holding for the future. Especially as the government is so focused on opening up the credit markets, the one thing really holding back the property markets.

I admit short term the price may be a little volitile, especially with an election next year, where it is looking increasingly likely that a new party will be coming into power, but long term even if the price does drop it will surely recover in the long run and with the good dividend investing in property companies like LAND and TW has to be good value.

---

More |  View thread (1) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Glad to see someone else investing wisely.
Probably not your kettle of fish, but worth a look.
FYI lot 70-73 maybe worth a look at. Especially lot 73, the double unit(almost treble), (head lease) not so much as it is the head lease but the advantages if you know what I mean. costs split 3 ways instead of 4 and 3 years of rent uplifts on it from 20k-27.5k.
Also being a double/treble size unit. It has future use, 2 singles worth 270k+s not 195k. Not forgetting also the Sq ft. Its double lot 71 which has a guide of 160k? Only down side is Vat on them.
A friend of mine was interest, but he is mostly all in like me. I like to keep some in reserve. more a hobby basis than full time like yourself.
Spread the wealth. Gl

---

More |  View thread (1) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

ay-up, im going to take this opportunity to share my views as well.

im in the property game and i build-to-let rather than buy-to-let, as well as a few other property investments.

over the last 2 years i have diverted away from residential property and sold 75% of my investments about 6 months before the crisis stated (more by luck as i was planning to move to america) more recently i have invested in commercial property and have snapped up a few shops with long term tennents and 2 HSBC bank let until 2037.

i was at the same allsops auction as podgy, and was surprised to see allsorts of people wanting to invest their hard earned dosh at the right prices, their is an allsop commercial auction coming up with some keenly priced properties, which i also think will be really busy i have my eyes on a few lots.

i have brought 3 de-licenced pubs in the last 6 months to kick start my building developments when the up-swing comes, they are all on large sites and i have picked them up for about 1/3 of what they would have being worth as development properties 18 months ago, there are some real steals out there at the moment, and the planners are being very open to suggestions for site developments.

i also own a few care homes and am having some upgrading done at one of them, the workmen that i have spoken to are saying how much work they have on and that things are slowly picking up.

i have not had a problem geting bank funding (from RBS) and my business manager has being really supportive, to the point of asking if i have enough capital to fund forward investments.

this recession has being good so far, allowing me to pick up properties and investments cheap, the land that i have collected over the last few months will be enough to keep me building for the next few years in what ever form they take.

if anyone is interested in investing in property have a look at commercial its a lot less stressful that residential and easier to manage, eddisons have a boots pharmacy in bradford let on a long lease for £4k+pa with a guide price of £65k+

my rant over and a few of my thoughts, and somehow ive managed to make £200k on shares as well this year, brought the banks when everyone said they were going to go bust, and have recently made a few bob on minerva.

best regards to all
jojo

---

More |  View thread (5) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

That article makes you look closer than we might hope Mr J

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

A short rant.
Property is essential and however it plays out short term, we all know everyone has to have somewhere to live. The big problem over the pre 2007, 2-3 years was mass production of flats and off Plan sales, bought by the greedy and get rich quick brigade. These will now have died a death. For one, mortgage companies don't like them any more and it is now to the point that people don't want them anymore, well unless realistically priced.

I would expect flat prices are still 20% lower than 2007. Houses though now around 10% off 2007, with some large variations dependant on where you live. I am south east west boarder. We are not far off 2007, I would say 5-10%.

From auctions I have attended this year, the venues have gone from half empty to standing room only before the kick off. Last one I attended was Allsops in london standing room only at 9.30am, 500+ people at the end of Oct'. I managed to secure 2 properties (flats). Any excess/repos are now being hoovered up and keeping price realistic at auction now as more people invest. By this I mean people who have a few quid in the bank earning them nothing.
You can get buy to let mortgages but 2.5-3.5% fees and min 25-40% deposit. Then the best you get, is base rate +4.49-3.49. Money for old rope for the banks.

You can get a good return for your money with or without a mortgage and the upside is more than the down side. I purchased 2 x 2beds, 76k each conservitive value 105k. They are in the high street in Southbourne, Bournemouth nice 1890 building a short 15-20 min walk to the beach. Rents £140 a week and £130 week. The amount of properties for rent is falling every month. People dont/can't buy so they rent, this is turning the lower rents from earlier this year, upwards.

Building sites in progress may now be a lot less, but this is keeping prices up and believe you me this will increase, and as it does more sites will open and increase in numbers and production. I suspect with a larger number being social housing. This is needed now to fill the demand as the council budgets will still be in place and the land on larger sites, will have been allocated for them as part of the planning deal.

With the likes of T.W keeping control of supply and having a large land bank dotted round the country, they can select sites and areas where demand is greatest, as things improve. Supply and demand. This will go hand in hand with unemployment i suspect. even the unemployed need to live somewhere and the days of b&b are dissapearing.
So i say wimpey is at a good price now, but what i say will not make any difference at all, but i feel better

The markets seem controlled at the moment. On reaserch i have done 43p seems about right, as we are in a lul now until 2010. It seems there is no flat period any more, its either up or down.

Not interested in my spelding or gramur

1st Beer now. ICE COLD MMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm

---

More |  View thread (5) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Mrj
WE KNOW that the market for mortgage back secturities (40% of lending in 2007) has completely dried up. Investors arent touching it witha barge pole.

WE KNOW that interest rates can't go below where they are now. They go up or stay low. For nearly three decades rates fell. That is a secular change
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That may change now the lenders are being more cautious in who they lend too and on the valuation of the asset. But that will again take time for the market to trust those securities.

Your second point though I thought about including on my list as the only way they can go is up. But I am not sure the average punter looks beyond the rate offered by their lender and possibly won't take into account that the BoE rate being so low can only push there rate up. The normal mindset is that the rate we accept may go up or down, it may not occur that it can only rise, indeed for things to return to some kind normality the rate must move up 2-3pc I feel. In short I am not sure this point will stop people buying.

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

to add

WE KNOW that the market for mortgage back secturities (40% of lending in 2007) has completely dried up. Investors arent touching it witha barge pole.

WE KNOW that interest rates can't go below where they are now. They go up or stay low. For nearly three decades rates fell. That is a secular change.

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Forgetting any heavy duty analysis and the smoke and mirrors what do we as ordinary people know.

Although HMG are bitching about the lack of lending being made available WE KNOW that it can not be allowed to get back to former levels. (thats how we got here 125pc mortgage anyone?.)

WE KNOW that larger deposits are required. In 2007 most ordinary 1st time buyers were merrily planning on just buying a house, maybe at best saving 5pc for a deposit. Those same buyers having to find 15-20pc that seems like a lot extra to save between then and now. (on 120k that is an extra 12-18k)

WE KNOW a lot of people are in negative equity and so are not able to move.

WE KNOW the lenders have problems of their own. They are being extra careful who they lend money to, as they can not afford to take on any more bad debt.

WE KNOW some of the property valuation was, to say the least generous because it didn't matter when prices kept rising. So that lenders now are being more cautious/realistic in the valuations. Which also doesn't help those with negative equity.

WE KNOW there is high un-employment.

All of those affected by any of the above are possible TW customers.
When all of that unwinds, people have saved the extra deposit, people are back to work, banks are less troubled and negative equity is less pressing then I feel the market will pick up. Until then it is just a matter of keeping their head above water.

IMO

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

not in london, prime markets are almost there already - look at zoopla.

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

Couldn't help replying!

My timeframe for the trough is somewhere between 2012-2014, with a slow and cagey recovery after that.

Getting back to 2007 prices will, in my opinion, in real terms could be over a decade away.

---

More |  View thread (8) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down

to TW other than maximising profit.

The issue in the housing market is simply the desire of the public to buy houses and their sentiment in taking that risk relative to the stability of their jobs and income.

When TW gauge that the sentiment is returning they will start to build again and start to sell. At that point the SP will start to move and probably not before.

The housing market is still treading water and despite bullish statements by Persimmon about having sold all 2009 stock its all just hype as it was old projects completed at the moment. New starts are thin on the ground to the point of being zero for all major House Builders and completely zero for small builders.

---

More |  View thread (1) |  Respond |  Login to Vote up |  Login to Vote down