(UKX) FTSE 100

I see what nest egg is saying, things sound very inflated in the US including its deficit and the indices continue to fly,
Will be intersting to see if the Dow continues to rally this year when it hits 18000

We have the US to thank and the Dow should rocket this week when more Greek news is out,
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BM21 - I think we have the US to thank for your current economic hiaitus just about as much as we should thank a horde of rats for spreading the bubonic plague.

Also US equities are the cheapest in 20 to 30 years, read in on bloomberg, Dow will be cheap till
20000 according to Kink
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Don't beleive everything you hear. The current S&P500 p/e ratio is 21.94 against a long term average of 16.43
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http://www.multpl.com/

It makes me laugh when I listen to some Americans on CNBC & Bloomberg, saying that a recession in Europe will not affect the US economy, when Europe is the USA’s largest trading partner., and that you need to be 100% in equities at a time that US tech is at a 12 year high and the S&P and Dow are at nearly 4 year highs and the DOW is only about 7-1/2% below its all time high.

Also Europe’s debt / GDP is less than that of the USA, and the US has not even started addressing their debt yet ..... what are they paying in interest! ???

The Yanks were born optimistic lol.

.

nest-egg

Yep what you missed out was there were hundreds if not thousands of posts to this board in a similar vain to yours since March 09 and what happened in that time?
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Like I said the markets are booming.

You know the world is going mad when people are starving themselves or getting into debt simply to change their 3GS to an iphone 4 which has a few extra functions which most will never use lol

nest-egg

Yep what you missed out was there were hundreds if not thousands of posts to this board in a similar vain to yours since March 09 and what happened in that time?

Also US equities are the cheapest in 20 to 30 years, read in on bloomberg, Dow will be cheap till
20000 according to Kink
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Don't beleive everything you hear. The current S&P500 p/e ratio is 21.94 against a long term average of 16.43

The Greece situation has nothing to do with it, the indices have gone up because of great US jobs numbers last week as well as US manufacturing and service sector expanding, also the US housing market zooming up as well as consumer confidence in the US being strong,

We have the US to thank and the Dow should rocket this week when more Greek news is out,

Short the US indices if you are daft enough, Dow at 14000 by end of month id my prediction and Nas at 3000
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The indicies are gone up,because the USA is $15 trillion in debt, and this is increasing by ~$1 trillion each year, it is borrowing 40c for each buck it spends. US Personal credit has increased substantially in the last few months which has helped retail.

60% of s&p companies reporting higher than expected earning (although these earnings were substantially reduced by analysts in Q3 2011, on revenues below analysts expectations because they have found was to increase profits through cost cutting not thro' increasing revenues.

US unemployment is officially at 8.3%, however the true figure is 15% of the adult population without a job.

Greece is euro 160bn in debt and will be given money thro' the troika not to stimulate its economy or to buy vases, but to pass the money on to German and French creditors and will definately default.

There will be a widespread recession throughout Europe as austerity kicks in, which may or may not include the UK.

German and French banks have agreed a massive hit on Greece and have to fire sale assets to increase their core tier 1 to over 9.2%.

China is slowing to 7-8% growth as opposed to 10% growth.

Massive debt has been transfered to western soveriegns which has to be paid for in increased taxation over the next 10 years.

No / low demand for commercial and rsidential property in western economies.

Have I left anything out?

So of course the markets are booming!

Why now Spends ? Seems like they are just getting ready to leg us up for a bit more ?
All the best
JNT

now

violet313,
Thanks for not using "text talk" for all of that - I do struggle to extract the meaning from some of your posts, it's an age related issue

Not a lot I can argue with there. Haven't seen a "parabolic" move going my way for some time now. It is worth staying in those because the inverse time squared effect is offset by the increasing gradient.

I also seem to have lost the knack of reversing - used to do it with ease in the past but not anymore.

Yesterday I identified a level on S&P which was unlikely to be breached, it wasn't and all I did was go neutral on a close approach. I had sell orders set below it......

Today I had a position of 3 trades Short the FTSE. On the 16:30 bounce, closed one for profit, went neutral on the others.

The Shorts were delivering but it was a fairly linear event in terms of move versus time.

I have a lot of friends and business contacts in Greece. I need to think like I know them when the FTSE opens and then think like an American who doesn't when they open over there.

cheers theory

Also US equities are the cheapest in 20 to 30 years, read in on bloomberg, Dow will be cheap till
20000 according to Kink

The Greece situation has nothing to do with it, the indices have gone up because of great US jobs numbers last week as well as US manufacturing and service sector expanding, also the US housing market zooming up as well as consumer confidence in the US being strong,

We have the US to thank and the Dow should rocket this week when more Greek news is out,

Short the US indices if you are daft enough, Dow at 14000 by end of month id my prediction and Nas at 3000

Oh well, maybe the 15 minute four point drop on the S&P500 was the 'correction' that everyone has been waiting for ...
------------------------------
What I actually think is that the Greece 'decision', when it does eventually come through could be the trigger for the biggest 'sell the news' event since last July. The markets have been ramped and ramped and ramped on 'Greek Expectations' and now seem to be just teetering on the verge. This rally has gone on for far too long already on light volumes and with technical indicators showing 'overbought' for weeks. God knows what is keeping prices where they are at the moment. I am not sure whether this is '3 of C' (which implies another rally in a month or so time) or 'c of C', but I'd be gobsmacked if we don't get a snap back almost immediately after an initial spike. It is all a game and without doubt a rigged one!

stop moved 2b/e

@1726, stop 1720, limit ??

yeah yeah yeah turncoat lol :-)

[quote, theoryman]Basically you want as much of the position to run for the longest time.[/quote]
It's all subjective so i'm not going to disagree (except perhaps with ur use of the word *you.)

However, since ur familiar with options trading you will also be aware of the percieved relationship with risk & time.

another approach wrt (leveraged?) *trading -rather than investing- is:
the longer the position remains open:
1) the more risk there is of being stopped out.
2) & incidentally, the less liquid capital is available for further trading (somewhat moot as even holding cash is a form of speculation).

=>
a measure for optimality might be say: for a completed trade, distance moved in desired direction should be inversly proportional to the trades' duration.
i might add that, at least for a godless soul like myself, time seems the greater commodity,,

optimal trade = dist / (time * time) [ * time * time * time ,, ? ]
ie: acceleration.
ie: 5s&p pts in 1min is better that 10s&p pts in 2mins

ergo: always try to trade momentum.
(= i know. easier said,, =)

repeat of yesterday - i have to go with Yorkie on this one, although there could be some nasty dips along the way to take out positions. Who said riding the wave was easy....

This will be propped up with the non-stop TOTOS this month IMO - and stops will be taken out aswell either way!

Closed this short at 8.21 nice

Vix taking off now

Hulk

Risk Off As ECB Says Rumor Is Actually Not Fact

ECB NOT YET DECIDED ON WHETHER TO CONTRIBUTE TO GREEK DEBT RESTRUCTURING - EURO ZONE SOURCES

Usual opportunity, usual drop, usual outcome.......

FTSE

Five down and three up after opening on 1 min.
The five down took out two possible subwave supports on one provider and three on another.
Three up completed before hitting the post opening High.

14 min RSI had H&S shape, whilst on 16 min there was a falling conjoined Mm.( Both patterns cutting down through the key RSI 70 level on IG 24 hour data.)

Combined probability was assessed at > 25%, so went Short using 5915 as the "brick wall" with SL just above.

Phased in, first on close encounter on Price and second chunk on Ms forming on RSI.

Total cost was ~ 20 pts.

I see an Impulsive five down to ~ 5877 then standard Fib retracement zone hit.

Maybe this is the one......

Cheers theory

Oh well, maybe the 15 minute four point drop on the S&P500 was the 'correction' that everyone has been waiting for. F*^"+'g joke, ain't it!!

... impulse down!! Have the borgs tired of their own game - at last??

I only know of him through the Trader's Trick PDF from several years back. As far as I am aware he hasn't ever included religious stuff in the emails I get.

He did a cracking one a few weeks back about the different methods of assessing Volatility. The bit I liked was he mentioned my method of using the Price of an Option and the other values associated with it, to reverse engineer the Volatilty being used by the person writing it.

I think it was hardtofin who agreed it was a possible way of doing it but not something he came across in his day to day work.

It was reassuring to know that I wasn't doing something mathematically daft - easily done, the correctly applied use of a method which happens to be the wrong method in the first place.
Cheers theory

Oh typo.......I meant to say Risk ON situation........ Baaaa.

Nobody mentioning anything about LTRO 2.0 which will see a gross uptake of EUR500-650bn, notably above current consensus around EUR325bn. Which can already be seen with long dated bonds being hit hard this week. If the uptake is high which it will most definitely be especially since banks are being bleed dry notably in the EU peripheral zones. This will be risk position and asset price inflation would likely occur.

Even if the banks park the LTRO cash back with the ECB a week down the line like they did the last time, the effect was pretty immense as we are already up a couple hundred points since LTRO 1.0

I'd be holding longs.........if yr in it and wouldnt be picking tops at this stage in the game. If anything covered warrants..........1000/1 to Biiiitches!

Theory, thanks for the clarification and heads up.

I note your 'Joe Ross' reference. He happens to state: 'The human brain is a wonderful thing. It was created by a power beyond the understanding of man. In fact, the human brain alone should be proof to any thinking person that there is a God and that all things were created by Him.'...and he goes on!

A 'God of the gaps' man, eh?! If you can't understand something it has to be God that created it! How distinctly american! Perhaps he should ask himself who created God and his brain, and then where and how did God learn how to create our brains...and then who created that agent..and then who...I know I know...

...but then...

...IF he did create our brains WHY WAS HE SO CRUEL IN NOT MAKING ALL OUR BRAINS OF EQUAL SIZE...

...and those poor little gazelles?! Look at this sequence. Ross's 'intelligent' God could have been SO kind:

http://tinyurl.com/3nucb96

Strains the bounds of credibilty doesn't it?! (Ross's words)

Dear oh dear - don't believe all he says, Theory!! Also whatever else don't be tempted to fly over there and become one of his 'little children'! He'll likely have something waiting for you when you least expect it! Lol!

All a little too evangelical for me.

Short 5891,target 5600 in the next 10 days

where are u come out and play and u as well mak lol

Apologies, first paragraph should read:

The original reference I made to the 95% being losers was on specific thread on here about Day Traders. They were industry figures in the USA contained in a newsletter I receive from Joe Ross.

cheers theory

johnga,
The original reference I made to the 95% being losers was on specific thread on here about Day Traders in the USA. They were industry figures contained in a newsletter I receive from Joe Ross.

The High % winners but losing money etc. has to go together and isn't in any way forced. I tried to keep numbers out of it, maybe I should have given an example of such a series of trades; that end up with a negative outcome. An easy one to picture though is someone who writes Options without understanding the associated risks.

The only guaranteed way of losing money is to take trades where the risk, reward and probability are skewed against you - the methodology used doesn't matter.

Phasing in and out is a technique that can prove useful but there are others. Basically you want as much of the position to run for the longest time. The best technique to have used will only reveal itself after the event.

I have taken on a position this morning that fits my way of thinking. Anyone who has read and understood the points I am making will see why I have done it.

They might not agree with me, it might not work but to me the odds were in my favour.

cheers theory

...and why 95% intraday traders and spreadbetters lose money.

Theory, I just wanted to develop a couple of points raised in your recent posts, the subject of which I have, I hope, made somewhat more relevant.

You raised the point: 'Think it was 95% lose and a very large % of those got totally wiped out and lost all their savings etc..'. There is something of a contradiction here in my view.

Firstly, pension funds and institutions, traders in trading rooms in investment banks, and hedge funds all make their money through the stock market. The majority of them must be getting something right otherwise there would be no Pensions Funds or Annuities.

Secondly, there is the PI who dabbles and who's investing very often becomes dominated by either fear or over-confidence.

In terms of numbers what does this 95% represent? You are the numbers man, Theory, yet you don't expand on this. Is it the volume of individual trades, the value of individual trades or the numbers of individual traders and investors? There's little surprise in this number. The majority of winning trades will be transacted by the 'pension funds and institutions, traders in trading rooms in investment banks, and hedge funds' who are small in number but large in value and effect. They will not only control the direction of the markets due to their size (add to that QE funds), they will be better equipped to manage any sense of fear in the markets - they may well have contributed in creating it!

So the 5% of individual traders and investors who win will likely be valued at 95% of the market value. Not far removed from your numerically comparable analysis of seeking impending pivots whereby you will happily lose 90% of your trades (with tight stops) in search of a 10% win running beyond the stopped-out losses.

Going back to the private investoror trader who's dabbling. Take my previously mentioned scenario of trading the trends. A channel is established. As the numbers move towards the top of the channel PI confidence is raised and he/she will more likely add to his/her positions or maybe feel comfortable enough to start trading at that point. News will be good, corporate profits and sales will be improving, oil will be rising, the VIX will be falling and there will be nothing in sight to engender risk or uncertainty.

Look at the Primary Bull FTSE Wave running from from 1994 to 2000 (marked 'A'):

http://tinyurl.com/7ygsqp5

Along this move there was a lot to discourage, climbing the well described 'wall of fear'. The big boys will have been buying cheap stocks at a very high risk time whilst the PI will have been sitting back in amazement wondering what on earth they were doing whilst all the terrible news was around! Only in 1998 did matters arise around investments exposed to Russia that saw rapid falls in the FTSE to the tune of 25%...just as the PIs were feeling confident to pile in. Banks fell 40% (sound familiar?). No doubt PIs would feel the fear and sell out on the way down. No sooner had they sold out when the big boys will have moved in and lap up the oversold stocks. Within 3 months the FTSE had recovered its losses and was forging ahead to its peak of 6535 in January 2000. No doubt with all the good news about the PIs would be feeling confident enough to buy in again! This is the 'normal' trading cycle.

There is a lesson here! Gambling on impending pivots, intraday trading, short-term gambling though micro-wave analysis is the certain way to find yourself amongst the 95% of losers. Setting up trades counter-intuitively when all about you is falling apart is the clever thing.

Taking the Primary Wave trend just illuminated the obvious way to me is to trade the markets along with the big boys where the money's going! That is trade the trend and in the direction of the trend. In the 1994-2000 Bull Wave there was only one losing scenario: that of the 1998 reversal!

The 1994-2000 channel was around 15% deep (900 points). The

http://financespain.com/content/commodities

"Friday this resistance was convincingly broken why would the market now decide to give this back?"

Indeed! But, watch out below IF this breaks AND confirms!

TDL

Dax futures are rocketing again.

Just re-learning "wedges" on Bulkowski's pattern site in case this classifies as a wedge starting late November. Although firmly in the BULL camp for 2012, I was expecting a re-test and pull back to this recent break out at approx 5775 on March futures or to the rising wedge top line at approx 5800. Bulkowski's research suggests that breakouts occur 69% of the time to the downside but as this has broken North, then expectations of a throwback as he calls it, would concur with my re-test hypothesis. As always I'll trade my short time scales picking up the pips but this recent move does look a little weary from some aspects and I'd feel far more confident of continuing higher if the basic indicators were able to re-fuel a little. Just sharing my thoughts for the day. Happy trading everyone . . . Cleveland.

Mak

I have a much more bullish option for the US markets similar to ftse count posted here

If we get a Greece deal it might be possible

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AUKX.L&it=li&action=detail&id=9259407

Did say I was keeping it to myself for now 4th line up from the bottom in this post

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AUKX.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9250253

For the ftse still see 5990 as significant