(VOG) Victoria Oil & Gas

"...great evening was had by all but somehow Victoria oil and gas did manage not to turn up!"

From the Fastnet board, one of the other companies presenting last night.

Someone on LSE said that the FD guy was taken poorly. JS couldn't have given his side of it anyway?

"However the new investors that came on board in Feb wanted VOG to do what most FTSE companies do and report quarterly and not by every individual tiny event."

Where did you get this TT? I found the change from constant communication with shareholders via RNS, phone or email to the current Trappist approach an unwelcome shock but this is the first time I have seen it stated that it was the placees behind it as opposed to the new CEO or just a change of heart from the BoD.

And do most companies only report quarterly? Not Aim oilies in my experience.

And "every individual tiny event"? What about individual large events which are likely to affect the SP - aren't companies obliged to report those ASAP?

The notifications of major interests in shares that were announced in the last couple of months have slightly worried me that a take over might be on the cards after the court case with JG is concluded - part of my reason for averaging down - but if this was in the pipeline would VOG be bothering with presentations to potential investors?

Well I don't - I certainly hope not - I am fed up with selling out British efforts to grow good companies.
Mel

Agreed...

No news for such a long time usually means something hidden about to surface!!
I'm going for takeover news.

Tony
Reading between the lines it might be possible to say that actual gas useage is lower than anticipated - given the hook-ups so far. If true we might have to review the contribution thermal hook-ups are projected to make to turnover, profits and cash flow. If the lower useage is attributable to power outages, then it should not affect the electrical generation customers yet to be hooked up.
So in gauging the electrical generation customers contribution to volume/profits/cash flow ( V's the business plan) it would help if that assessment is separate.

I wonder if we should make representations to the company to show thermal & electr gen sales separately in future reporting.
Mel

Yes sippster I own VOG shares and I am well down. I therefore have an interest to declare. I need the share price to return to levels of late summer 2012.

The source regarding the problems with power failures affecting thermal customers was John Scott CEO as I met him and he mentioned the problems of giving a daily use of gas from existing and new hooked up customers as they can not always use the gas when power outages occur.

The figures I got about Gazprom were from examining their accounts and noting what cash they appear to have available and they had depleting wells to replace. I can not find the tab as I did not think anybody would want to plough through it. I noted today that Gazprom were keen to get gas and oil around Cyprus.

What I gave was from memory from what I have read over months. I am not organised enough to double track on everything I read. It is up to everybody to do their own research. Things do change over time as well. For the life of me I can not find the source that said arbitration hearing was 24 June. However that date was what I clearly recalled in my head. I take the point that a start date for arbitration is not going to be an open and shut case so we may not hear anything for awhile on that issue.

Regards Tony

Sorry not the front page, it's on the share information page.

Just seen this on the front page of the VOG website - someone's either having a laugh of getting a bit ahead of themselves!

"...... If you wish to notify Computershare of a change of details or require a form regarding the payment of dividends......."

From memory, I think that VOG released theirs last presentation on their website on the afternoon prior to the presentation so it may be worth checking later.

Blue Straggler, I think Vog should take opportunities when they arise to promote the company & this time it happens to be before the expected update. Non sensitive news may come out of the meeting but will filter out to us anyway, unless the room is empty!!

Sippy
Despite the @ock eyed financial structure (for a utility).....which will need fixing - the aircrafthangersful of shares generated by uberdilution brokers (yet to be dumped) - the unclear medium/long term strategy beyond Logbaba
- pipe 3 to build (based on "unresearched" customer targets?)
- river to cross
- Jack

........you cant argue with the £100M cash flow surplus ( £76M after capex) headed VOG's way, beginning in 14-15 months.

VOG will be able to buy itself for cash if the sp stays the same. Obviously it wont. Or maybe it will.
Naturally we trust our directors not to arrange a MBO or LBO......Don't we? if they do I wont be riding a white steed into their offices.........Challenger Tank ?
Mel

PS Sippy - you will feel better when the sp hits 10p but you have 24months to grumble

Blue
I think we know Pipe 2 is being built. We know new gensets lead time , delivery, installation means they cant possibly be contributing to gas sales or cash flow yet. My hope is they will later in 2013, and it should be stonking.

Blue - Your point about pipe 3 ( and the old response of not fully researched yet from MD) is a good one.They have had plenty time to do the "research" ..and it cant be difficult - so why any mystery?

Come on Tony - your posts are good.....what is the source?

Mel.

PS..........when do we get Tem's Caribbean experience sitrep?

But, to be fair, which I always am, many of us on this BB were warning against buying anymore of these shares quite some time ago. I can't remember the number of times warnings were made to people who repeatedly posted stuff like 'it's top up time'......even TT must admit that a few of us were quite surprised when he topped up last year at, what was it TT, 3p or more? Now it's 50% down on that!

For most of us, this share has been a disaster. But hey, ho, I continue to hold because you simply never know.......although I think I kind of do!

I woulnt trust myself to go to hear Fox Dilition. He might start talking about his cringeworthy "friends".

I might then spontaneously combust or explode and you would have to scrape bits of me off the ceiling.. I might be siting in the back of the room (before combusting) wondering what longer investment players ( MG The 100's of Investment trusts eg Caledonian ) managers might be thinking if Fox Dilution walked into their offices for a grilling. I might also be wondering what those expert fund managers and old money houses might be thinking when they scrutinise the current financial structure of the utility we are invested in. .....well actually I wouldn't be wondering - they would be thinking "cash flow" and when they got to how close the surpluses are....they would be thinking Dilution Brokers don't know a lot about financial structuring.

Which is why dilution Brokers probably don't know the people who can now invest in and take a view on VOG.......pity.
.......and why Dilution brokers dump on "friends" who play short.

No - best if I stay away.
Mel

With hindsight we did!

Of course theraml customers are being added. But at a pace an awful lot slower than the company expected, or at least told the stock market. There is no expectation of good news on June 4th hence the share price drifting down further. To suggest that the price dropping further is "a buying opportunity" is to conversly say that all who already own bought at the wrong time.

So they're really going to do it.

I wish I could go to the presentation today but I can't. If I was there I would ask why, after nearly 4 months since the last update, they think it worthwhile talking to strangers but not to the shareholders.

Also I would like to know the current status of the planned phase 3 pipeline with (next to) no customers on it and the unplanned pipeline with game changing opportunities on the other side of the river.

Is anyone going?

TT - Don't get it, although several other people clearly do. What is the source of these statements?
I don't even understand the title.

Tony

1. Good stuff. You sure about result of arbitration on june 25 ( day after hearing)?

2. Did you get a feel for whether the 12mmscfs revised target Dec 2013 is still realistic?


Mel

We should get an RNS at the end of this month. It should coincide with the annual report. It is only of concern if we hear nothing by 4 June.

They have said that although the odd thermal customer is being added, the amount of gas sold is roughly the same amount as a result of numerous power failures continually around Douala, so earnings growth remains similar to January 2013. If a customer has a power failures they have outage on gas used if they are thermal user only.

The demand for power supply gen sets is growing strongly and materialises in Q3 because of general need and from these power outages. So the only good news there is an update of what is in the country re gen sets and if they are still on target and who is signed up. The pipeline 2 is around 8.3 km and they finished 1 km back in March. So we should here how much more is built and when it will be finished.

VOG got the Soc Gen monies, half straight away ($15M) and the other half to come was formulated through a number of banks and expected to be drawn down when needed when Geb sets are to be procured later in the year. We should see formal conclusion probably when the legal hearing is completed.

The legal dispute arbitration hearing in Texas is 24 June. So we hear the results on 25th June as it will impact on SP.

It would be nice to hear more often than just having a quarterly report. However the new investors that came on board in Feb wanted VOG to do what most FTSE companies do and report quarterly and not by every individual tiny event.

West Med and Kermokel sales have not progressed yet and are likely to come out of the blue. Gazprom nearby to West Med has several gas wells depleting that need eventual replacement. They have $17M dollars available in 2013 for acquisitions of new gas and oil wells. West Med is well within their budgets if they wanted to extend their pipeline and to have a good quality new well nearby. The delay on any sale to Gazprom is due to world demand as Gazprom is competing with liquified Australian Gas and USA surplus gas supplies on what they supply to Europe. Renaissance are overseeing more work on the West Med well so as to ready it attractive on future disposal.

The fact that no info has appeared to date suggests that no event either bad or good is strong enough to influence the SP around the 1.6p-1.65 mark. Otherwise we would have heard something.

VOG is a developing utility company but is often traded with gas and oil explorers. Eventually it will track utilities in future years.

The share price has been in a dip of late but that may be a good buying opportunity. The alternative is riding the high FTSE market and hoping to avoid a downward correction on shares typically trading 17PE. Forward PE for VOG this December is just 2 but does require hitting earnings target.

Tony

Hi Sippster,

They say 'no news is good news', That's Rubbish! Those that think that are totally wrong!

Everyone loves to give Good News and can't wait to tell you!

All Businessmen also love to tell of Good News, they hate to tell you Bad News!

Now, of course the New Man may believe that it is best to deliver Good News in Total (One Hit), not drip feeding. Again Wrong! Why? Because once the Good News is delivered it immediately becomes Old News and it's effect is quickly diluted and lost.

Drip Feeding encourages one to follow the Leader and it provides Good News over a period and has greater and longer lasting effect.

I wonder if his Tardis will be sited (if at all) in Douala or Victoria?? No matter you are the Captain, you say where! Regards Lawrence

No probs. If I can find a Tardis, we can launch a Tardis manufacturing factory (okay, we could site it in Douala, fuelled by VOG). On second thoughts.......

Regarding the new chap. They say 'no news is good news', but at VOG, I don't think the phrase applies, do you? He picked up the gauntlet, and now he's probably looking for a Tardis, too!

Tardis making really would be the thing, don't you think? Absolutely 'future-proof', lol!

Hi Sippster,

I think that the PIs are 'scared' but they are certainly uninformed!

Should read... PIs are NOT 'scared'.

I must take more water with the Wine!! Lawrence

Hi Sippster,

I think that the PIs are 'scared' but they are certainly uninformed!

However, maybe the FD man may provide good and encouraging news at the Presentation? I doubt it, so don't hold your breath there!

Now if the New CEO does not give 'Good News' by the end of May, him being 3 months at the Helm, then I guess that the Ship may Sink!

Sippy, it seems that he appears to act in 'the mode of' KF', you know 'Mushroom Management'. I suggest that the sooner he says something (anything!) then the PIs will then know that someone is steering the Ship. IMO, every day that goes by when he says nothing then his credibility erodes! Remember you PIs are paying him and he should respect that and keep you all informed, good or bad!

I'm voting for you steering the Tardis. Couldn't be worse than now. OK Captain???

Regards Lawrence

Well, Nick, my comment about steadying the ship was rather tongue in cheek. I doubt even Temu would deny that our 'captain', Mr Foo, has not been an ideal captain. Thing is, it seems that he is intent on staying on-board. Going down with the ship, perhaps? Perhaps 'submarine' is more appropriate as we continue to plumb the depths.

On the other hand, my comment about the Tardis was meant. I have searched on both amazon and ebay, but no luck so far. If I do get one, I'll let you all know. It's a lot bigger on the inside, apparently, so there will be room for everyone. Honest (as Mr Foo would say).

Steady the ship? Has that actually had a positive effect on the share price? Ever?? All credit for the info, but lets face it VOG has been a let down as an investment. As to the tardis, great idea. Take out a short at 6p and away you go!

"Traditionally oil production in Africa has been centred on the west coast, but recently that exploration has moved to the eastern extremes."

African oil production - west to east - http://goo.gl/Wx6La

The 2 year prospective PER of VOG is one. .........and people are getting excited about a sp rise of 6%.

The dilution brokers are to give presentations to retail investors.. The same brokers which wisely predicted a 1 year sp of 6p less 8 months ago.

Mel ( in no forther comment needed mode)

The 2 year prospective PER of VOG is one. .........and people are getting excited about a sp rise of 6%.

The dilution brokers are to give presentations to retail investors.. The same brokers which wisely predicted a 1 year sp of 6p less 8 months ago.

Mel ( in no forther comment needed mode)

21/05/2013
AFRICA ENERGY INTELLIGENCE N°699

CAMEROON
Verdict soon for RSM
An arbitration tribunal which is due to decide on a dispute pitting the American oil company RSM Production against Cameroon’s government will hand down its definitive verdict in June. (...) [133 words] [€1,6]
MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE: RSM Production | International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes | World Bank | Marino Baldi | Caleb Boggs | Jean-Pierre Ancel

http://www.africaintelligence.com/AEM/financial-operations/2013/05/21/verdict-soon-for-rsm%2C107960681-BRE?did=83409135&eid=183109

I do not think the Cameroonians will be well disposed to Rsm whatever the result. It is all hotting up!!!!

in Cameroon

http://www.petroleumafrica.com/kosmos-strikes-out-in-cameroon/

''The Sipo-1 well onshore Cameroon on the Ndian River Block drilled by Kosmos Energy Ltd. was not a success. The well was targeting the Miocene Isongo Formation and was drilled to a total depth of 1,725 meters.''

No oil or gas for Kosmos!!!
They would be better off buying Vog rather than drilling expensive exploration wells. LOL

Blue, I was expecting an update before the presentation but with only a couple of days left it is looking unlikely.
If some of the information is revealed at the presentation before news is given to the shareholders then yes it would be showing contempt for us but it won't be the 1st time we've heard news that way.

I don't believe that much would be price sensitive as we are broadly aware what VOG should be doing but are short on the details eg the gensets should be on order since the loan was granted in jan and VOG knew they needed them prior to that, so if they haven't sorted them out by now then questions need asked.

Hope FD do more presentations after today's rally. Just takes a few decent buys and we start moving up again.

Tony

If they do reveal that sort of stuff at the presentation not only would they be showing contempt for their news starved shareholders but I would have thought they would be acting illegally since that would be price sensitive information which has to be released by RNS first.

Does anyone have any views on what VOG might reveal at this presentation? I'm hoping that we hear news on the following

that VOG have increased production slightly and that we're are cash neutral - including the payments for the loan,

have managed to sign up more customers - not the usual "potential" of another 20 customers but at least 3 or 4 more confirmed.

news that generators have been sourced and a date for them arriving in Cameroon ie August.

Progress on pipe laying - with the rainy season now passed I'd like to hear that we are making good progress.

I very much doubt any news regarding JG and his claim will be forthcoming apart from maybe a reiteration that VOG dispute all his claims but will be interested in anything said on the subject.

I would also like to hear what the VOG representatives think of the current SP and what they are planning to do to reverse this continual decline.

Is anyone attending the presentation on Thursday? If so could they please post their views on what was said regarding the above and the presentation in general.

Unless VOG release a positive RSN shortly we could be waiting a while for this piece from the article to pass

"......That said, for those looking for more convincing on Victoria Oil & Gas it may be worth waiting on an end of day close back above the September resistance line / 50 day moving average at 1.63p before targeting the 200 day moving average at 2.1p as the 6-8 week target."

found this tech analysis on twitter

Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG): (Very) Early Bird Bargain Hunting Chance - http://goo.gl/dsqs7