Hey Sasa, Good to hear you play the game. Chess can be played and enjoyed by everyone, regardless of their playing strength.
Chess computers/engines can be very strong, tactically,they are razor sharp & unlike humans,they do not make mistakes.The top ones like 'Stockfish'are unplayable but if your playing one rated lower than 2000, then it will have weaknesses that can be exploited.
The best way to beat your chess computer on level 4 is to play for a 'positional gain', as the computer cannot see a positional gain like a human can, computers evaluate material gain.A positional gain can be achieved by outman euvering the computer with your pieces or offering a material gambit in exchange for a positional gain.
Tactically,humans are no match for computers,but if you can exploit their 'positional weakness' or 'endgame weakness', then you will have a good chance of beating your computer.
I have never known what NEX is and on the ADVFN site it shows trades on both. There have been several days lately including today that most of the buys have been on NEX
So the SP is dropped on LSE due to mainly selling. Any ideas.
Hi Steve - I used to be a member of the LSE Chess team, back in the day and once beat our No1 board player (much to his consternation at the time) and still play my computer and often win on level three but never yet managed to beat it on level 4 - never mind up to level 10!
Clearly wouldn't get far with Schach either, by all accounts but I enjoy trying to get a result, not unlike striving with this baby. Our time will come, though...sasa.
You make a really good point UK_Steve. It would really set things up nicely for AMC and other sulphide producers if that were the case (and in fact can imagine how that would be the specific push needed to get a separate pricing/market sorted for Sulphide)
Didn't grasp exactly what you meant, I'm not in for the clever trading plays, I sold around the 8.4p mark because it looked to me about to drop, and missed the rise to 15p, [so not claiming to be the clever one], and I want to get back in with more than I previously had.
But I want to do it this time with the disciplines gleaned from a long drawn out and highly expensive lesson [will leave out the rest this time], that I give full credit to RY [and Entro] for.
And that is as previously stated, the "investment" case must not rest on the solitary consideration of "being in" for fear of "being out" when the big news comes, but prospects must score nicely even in he absence of the ground breaking news everyone's craving for.
Just to bring over the point, I ask myself the following questions : - [as an exercise not an opinion]
In the event there are no RNS's in the next month, where would you expect the SP to be?
In the event there is a fabulous final drill result RNS within the next month, but no other news, where would you expect the SP to be?
Repeat the above adding any variable you want [e.g. rise in nickel price, RY buying some shares e.t.c.].
If the answer to all the above is lower than today, then if we disregard the off chance a T/O JV comes in during this timescale, or likewise some indication the REF have decided not to reduce our geologist to a toll road keeper, to my mind there is no investment case.
We are certainly closer to one of the above ground breaking news then we were a year ago, but this finance deal doesn't exactly point to it happening in the next couple of weeks.
So for now [besides for not having any free powder ATM] will wait on the sidelines until at least one of the above exercises produces a positive answer, which obviously could happen in a variety of ways.
Was not planning to write all this, because could be seen in a bad way, which is not my intention.
I agree with your analysis Hallowed. I assume Schac is being pessimistic with a view to shorting or buying in (chess involves bluffs). Even with 200m shares added we would still only have 750 m issued which is small given the potential NAV. The chart shows potential downside here is probably 4p short term but this share has traded up in the 40's. Given the massive scale of this mine (cobalt and Nickel) even with 750 m shares issued there remains substantial upside sp potential (as well as the doomsday death spiral). You wouldn't put your shirt on it but with news flow expected in a matter of months there is plenty here to keep investors interested. With no risk of going bust in the next 2 years this is a traders playground short term with multi-bag potential for the long term investor.
Scach, you make valid points for why the SP should decrease but what really bothers me is the stage of the game we are at.
We need to tie up with a strategic investor over the next 12 -18 months, as otherwise how do we make it to production by 2020 or so, as the construction takes at least a couple of years.
The convertible loan (CL) facility was a surprise of course like so many other surprises they throw at us, especially the constant dilutions over the last several years and destruction of shareholder value as you rightly pointed out.
However, at this stage of the game, I believe there are more points in favour of a SP rise as opposed to a slow, gradual decline:
- This particular CL was probably planned for already last year, hence the resolution passed last year to issue more shares (up to 200m, but of course that does not mean to say the full 200m will be used up, only a proportion may end up being issued).
- The next tranche of the CL is only available if 'milestones' are reached. I am keen to find out what these 'milestones' will be.
- The CL is for a relatively short period (expiring 13.3.2019) and it clearly aims to provide the financier with at least USD 4m worth of shares hence the large initial tranche plus a further 9.3m warrants to go with it, exercisable at not such a low price of 9.3p. (So the 'milestones' could be the impetus for a sustained SP rise contrary to past dilutions).
- A revised PFS (or "production decision") will be one of those 'milestones', as it is a key component of determining our further financing arrangements.
I therefore believe the aim is not for Crede or the new financier to sell down these shares (as indeed Crede could have sold down already had they wanted to, just like they did in the past) but instead they have stakes and warrants to take part in the expected UPSIDE in the SP over the next 12 months.
That doesn't mean we get a JV partner over the next 12 months but it's the 'milestones' that keeps me holding at this stage.
Thank you for responding to my post Whistleblower.
Yes, the figures are absolutely terrifying, when you consider how thinly traded Amc is,Crede can barely sell a single share over the last few months, so when this new lot start unloading their seemingly endless millions (as well as Crede) for the next 2 years, there is only going to be one outcome ! Naturally, Robin will attempt to counter their selling with the resource upgrades & the PFS ect (like he did with Crede)but it will be nothing more than a drop in the ocean against such industrial scale selling in our thinly traded, illiquid company.
However, we must understand that the boards interests are not always aligned with shareholders,most shareholders want/expect to see, at least, some kind of progressive capital gain as the companies assets increase significantly, but here, shareholders only ever see their investment becoming progressively more worthless as the asset increases significantly , but first & formost the board must secure their own income, the share price is pretty much irrelevant to them as long as it's above zero pence-so they can raise funds against it.Salary is King for the board and these Death Spiral Financiers are only too pleased to provide the boards salary on such favourable terms, as ultimately,it is the destruction (85% up to now) of shareholders investments here that is paying the price.
Of course, it's a different story for shareholders with a longer term outlook like Soot ect, they can be pleased that the company has raised finance to continue existing for another two years, if the shares fall to 1 or 2p as a consequence of this depressing finance deal(as per Crede) ,it doesn't really matter because there will be another depressing finance deal after this one to get to DFS and then they'll be another one after that, so that the company can continue to exist.So this is simply another one of many punitive finance deals for long-term shareholders- who have seen their investment decrease from 33p to 5p, whilst watching the asset increase significantly.
But for anyone interested in 'retaining' or increasing their capital over the next two years,I can barely think of a worse place to put it.Its David & Goliath here now, and the private investor does not stand a chance against these Death Spiral Finnaciers (doubters check the Crede deal, 12p to 2p), amc is simply too thinly traded and is only ever traded by small p.i's, who buy the shares that the Death Spiral Financiers sell on the rns's.
I will be selling my remaining 25% 1 hour after the resource update/PFS is rns'd in conjunction with the Death Spiral financiers, if you can't beat am, join em
Note: I am extremely positive on the outlook for nickel with the EV revolution and I'm very bullish on Kun Manie but barring an act of god(TO), I find it nigh on impossible to see how any capital appreciation can be had here throughout the term of this Death Spiral agreement.Everything points to capital depreciation,just like we had with Crede.
Hi Sunny, UKOG was one I got lucky with. It was on my radar and then it shot up and I thought I missed it. Then it dropped to 6 so I bought it and I sold it just a whisker under 8. But it was relatively small beer because my 1st trade is normally just a tickle. That trade make circa 5k. I bought it and sold it a few times thereafter but barely breaking even on the trades. You know that you are lucky though when you trade for the wife and escape from the deal £40 up! I currently just hold around 150,000 of them which are the 5000 profit. I remain unsure about them, delays, tanker spotters, lack of transparency, ramping. I currently feel that it is a complete gamble but that based on conventional flow alone my money should be safe enough. I prefer the action here ( which is again high risk) because politics and funding aside I get the ev story and it is the right Nickel and there is loads of it. In the case of UKOG the oil is unproven. With AMC we have a massive resource so you know that a deal is inevitable. The risk is that the deal may leave pis out in the cold. I hope that by including amc within my reply that I have not offended posters who rightly feel that this board should be for amc discussion.
Sunny to be fair if you have to look on the chart since November 2016 when you sold at 8p on the way up to 15p and it was hovering around that mark a lot and breached it again in 2017 before the cash call news last week, so your comment I can't find a way to support what you said , unless you traded again with AMC? Or the sell amount was wrong with me? I hope I don't offend if so?
Anyway FWIW I hope you done well since your traded money because if this gets back up to that level again with any bolt from the blue news you may have gained nothing in real time if you think about it, you could be in a strong position now this has gone lower, if you done well since and get in lower even more happy days or sunny days
Schachmeister, I refer to your earlier post, my calculations look like this, if the Monthly payments are not made: March zero, April 2,933,779 issued to balance from the 9,290,323 initially advanced. There after about 6,112,051 per Month. If the 2nd tranche is taken in June the warrants will increase to 10,710,730 per Month. If the 3rd tranche is taken in October the warrants will increase to 15,309,409 per Month. In March 2019 this reduces to 9,197,358 per Month as the first tranche is paid. In June 2019 this reduces to 4,598,679 per Month as the second tranche is paid. September 2019 see the end of the contract. with approximately 174,422,585 warrant issued dependant on VWAP over the Months. This may dilute the share price to about 4p. Calculations are based on the current VWAP but if the share price is dropping during this time, the number of warrants will be greater thus the 200m provision.
Nice / informative post, Sageman; especially like your closing sentence -'Finding a winner and treating it like a long term game of chess, armed with patience, considerable research and a strategy' is my approach, too.
As you also say, we all have our particular ways of trying to improve the ROI we commit to any situation - in my case, fwiw, I never trade, per se but seek to improve the overall by having a spread of 'interesting situations' - I'm fortunate to have a 4 x bagger amongst these at present which enables me to be patient (which I am generally anyway) with the psychological balm of the 'bagger' in situ, aiding my 'doggedness' in concentrating on the exceptional value behind the 5p ps on offer right now...
We're all in the same boat, after all (trying to make a decent return on our hard earned whichever best suits our temperament / circumstances) and using the chess analogy once more, the AMC 'end game' approaches, imv, despite the protracted time in getting to it! - sasa.
Having listened again and reread the RNS again a few things jump out at me. 1st that this deal gives funding for 2 years. 2nd that the AMC BOD are genuinely excited by the 2017 drill combined with what is happening with Evs And the price of Nickel. 3rd that it is show me the money time. Specifically I mean that RY has reached the point where investors are interested but want independent validation of precisely what the mine is all about, hence the need for the updated and inclusive PFS. It is very clear that whilst the facility is for $10m they do not expect to use more than $4m and that they believe that the PFS will be shortly followed by deals. The problem is that hopes and beliefs do not sit well within an RNS and Crede leaves a bad taste. I am told that the 4 most expensive words in the English language are its different this time but EVs and the resultant price of Nickel could mean that it actually is. Heres hoping but in the meantime we must all be mindful that the death spiral situation so vividly painted by Schach remains a potentiality.
Schach, you and I clearly think very similarly on a number of things but the difference is that overtime I have adopted a somewhat softer and less combative style with other posters. People are entitled to their own trading styles and in trying to assist it is important neither to lecture or ridicule because it gets peoples backs up. Also if everyone was educated to grandmaster level you and I would win far fewer games of chess ,to use your analogy. I hope that this post is received positively because it was meant kindly.
Exactly Sageman, through experience and commitment, you have devised/evolved your own personal plan that works for you. Yes, losers are still inevitable but if a personal working strategy is deployed to minimise the risk and take some profits,as opposd to simply waiting to hit the jackpot,then the odds of returning an overall profit are increased.
Although we both have our own unique styles of investing in these high risk pennies, we are fundementally similar,and I also play this aim game similar to the game of chess ,with my investments being the chess pieces,and moving them around the board ,being the buying & selling.As in any game ,mistakes will always be made but generally speaking,consitent good play will be rewarded.
I see my speculative investments as my army and I deploy it strategically in seperate theatres of operations in multiple divisions all around the world, from the Falkland Islands in the West,to the Amur region in the East .Casualities (like amc) are always inevitable in this high risk game but taking decisive action and reacting to the ever changing circumstances should help to keep them manageable in a well diversified speculative portfolio- whilst gearing up when the odds are in your favour, will help to maximise the prospects of high returns.
Personal investment/trading strategies cannot be taught, you have to divise/evolve your own unique style that suits your personality, risk aversement & financial standing .
Of course, there are still no guarantees of success when investing in the wild west of the investment world,even when employing your own personal investment strategy/plan, but the odds of success are far greater than those of the investor who simply buys a high risk penny share, holds it & hopes for the best.
Sunny, totally get where you are coming from. What I tend to do is find a volatile share with a low risk of imminently going bust.Where the peak has been far higher than the current price. Thereafter I buy ( and sell) with a view to trading the sp down as low as possible. I sell some in to the mini spikes and acquire on the dips. You learn overtime how that share responds to news and any cyclical and seasonal factors. I like to have a number of such shares in play. I did that to a small extent with UkOG and now just have a small tranche of free shares. I did that to a large extent with SXX and sold out completely at circa 31. GFM is my most successful share where I have done this over 10 years and now have a very substantial and very profitable holding. With AMC I have done the same. One thing that I do is to not simply look at my average buy in price but also at the cost of each tranche. Thus depending on newsflow here I may sell shares accumulated at say 5p at 7p even if my average was 8p. This keeps my exposure down and those profits serve to drive down overall buying cost. With these shares blind faith is expensive. Finding what you hope will be a winner and thereafter treating it like a long term game of chess is what I find works. You will never win them all but armed with patience, research tools and a strategy your odds of success are much improved.
No malice with me I was genuinely interested & fair play your trade a little while back has showed well and perhaps I missed a opportunity when it hit plus 12p a little afterwards but my fear is losing out on bigger gains? hindsight is showing you are right I've been wrong , I do have a huge bonus then most PIs nearly all my shares are free running apart from some which was purchased last year, I may change my strategy going forward and do steps to trade the swings instead of having a big pot , for me the swings have always been with AMC but I feel I was doing better when I was trading a lot 9 to 7 years back , I been talking this over with Mrs UK Steve and I think I be returning to that method even if it's 5% or 10% at a time with 0.5 or 1p or 2p swings
Assuming your question was friendly, will answer you honestly.
I hope to get back in as soon as I can sell up elsewhere, [this is not the only place you find yourself in nolosstilsell mode] even if sp higher than presently.
I take no joy in others pain, but nevertheless in the event this share is destined to fall further [haven't a clue], I wouldn't be doing anyone a service by jumping the gun [done it too many times].
All long timers here have learnt a thing or two, and for me it is not to bury [relative] heavy money on the sole hope of a T/O [or other ground breaking news], where in absence of that craved for news, short/medium term prospects are tilted more on the down side.
The "you have to be in it to win it" club [cancelled my membership] mentality, carries just as much risk as the risk of being out for T/O, and the virtue of patience scores equally in regard to buying at the optimal time, as it does waiting year after year locked in loss.
Its hard to keep to these sort of disciplines, one tends to get carried away imagining that your about to miss a once in a lifetime opportunity, but would like to do it right this time round.
There's plenty scope to be positive on midterm prospects, RY summarized all that in a short audio, the catch is that with this finance deal [however marvelous] manipulators get a clear message they have time to mess around, and mess around they do.
Furthermore with all the positives, there was no indication of timeline expectation which for the like's of AMC is disproportionately important if you want to make any profit [might as well learn that truism once and for all].
And so here we are again being forced to make uneducated guesses at possible projected timelines [not for lack of education but for lack of information], which all those who've been here a while will know are useless.
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