Agree your points. One of the things that gave it some further negative momentum was Questor in Telegraph yesterday having it as a 'sell.' Worth waiting to get better feel of bottom, uptrend, as you say....
I'm of a similar view, also on the sidelines here. There appear to be loads of 'bargains' knocking about a present. Almost any company involved in property, finance, retail. Definitely best waiting for a clear uptrend developing though as a lot of these 'bargains' keep getting better. Anyone with a heap of cash to invest in a couple of months/years? time could make a killing!
I was tempted to buy back in after yesterday's generally positive statement, but held off. The trend is still negative and I agree with MIINTED that there is no clear support level. Like many other companies currently publishing good reports it seems to me to be oversold. Been caught by that thought before so will wait for trend reversal.
Started buying this one at 270 & averaged down to 239. Thought it would never stop. Back to my average now.
Will short-sellers and analysts agree that Savills has bottomed-out?
By Rob Mackinlay
Savills, the property services company, has seen its share price rise by 5.9% today, up 14.25p to 254.25p, on the back of a positive trading statement.
However, even with todays rises, Savills is down more than 60% on 2007 prices which broke above 700p in April at the peak of the commercial property market.
The share price declines have naturally attracted interest from short-sellers. In May 2007 less than 1% of Savills stock was on loan, according to figures from Euroclear. By July 2007 this had doubled to 2.26% and the level of stock lending the only indicator of short-selling has gradually risen to 5.18% in November and stood at 6.42% in December.
Todays statement has prompted ABN AMRO analyst, Richard Rae, to upgrade Savills to Buy saying: While the sector newsflow is likely to remain very poor during the next six months, we think the shares are quite capable of doubling over the coming year.
The note says: Asia and the Far East have remained very strong (with no signs of slowdown), and the groups consultancy business there has benefited from high levels of corporate activity (property valuations for IPOs and fund launches etc.).
Rae says: The focus for investors is totally on 12/08 of course: Savills is confident on Far East and Services, and we upgrade again here, but we now take a much more cautious view on UK transaction markets, and assume UK commercial / residential profits halve to £18m.
Mark Young, analyst at Oriel Securities, said that todays positive statements and 2007 outperformance hung on H1 not H2 possibly prompting the notes title that was then, this is now.
However Young gives Savills a Buy recommendation saying: Given that Savills shares fell by some 59% in 2007, underperforming the wider property sector by 33%, much of this newsflow appears to be priced in (our new December 2008 PE is 6.2x), and thus we stick with our BUY recommendation.
Nan Rogers, analyst at Arbuthnot also gives a Buy recommendation with a 350p target price, and is impressed that 2007 will be ahead of consensus forecasts saying: This is particularly impressive given today's news report that the value of transactions in the UK fell from £15bn to £5.5bn in the third quarter.
She also high-lights diversification achieved in 2006 with 20% of operating profits from commercial transactions, 26% from residential and 22% from consultancy. She agrees with Savills that the credit crisis will not hit residential property as hard as commercial property.
Yesterday and today's sp drop probably driven by the announcement that Your Move has closed 12 of its branches and cut 315 full time jobs in surveying and estate agency. Shares in LSL (Your Move's holding company) dropped 1p to 138, SVS dropped 8%!
the property sector as a whole has been hit sideways largerly on the back of the credit crunch. The shares have been hit because a lot of their income comes form investment brokerage which is having a difficult 6 months. The staff are driven by bonuses and they have a lot of tallented individuals. - they will be trying hard to do business!
This share will come back strongly when they think they can make a positive statement. I do not think their profits will have dropped by 70 % as their share price has.
no idea but have kept my eye on this for > 12 months. I did get in when they hit 256, and then got out this morning at 292. the drop over recent months is market driven, the reason bump back to 3 quid - well, who knows as there was no news. Hence, when they started to fall and still no news I got out and what a great decission that was ! Phew. something is off though, and if these babies go back to mid 250's following a single day sharp fall i'll be back in.
Blimey this has got hammered this morning. Guess with the Credit Crunch and the FED stating that inflation is still high that they may not cut rates further has not helped - especially given as Savills were looking at breaking out further in the US housing market. Wonder how far this will fall. One institution topped up though so someone is confident this will turn around.
Oops typing error. I didn`t mean £5.7775 I meant £2.7775. £2.80 this morning I see. Good value at this price for the long term I think. When I sold some shares, it was before the last final results, and I thought they were over valued, but after reading the last final results, I thought they were good value at £6.80, so obviously they are even better value now!
Earlier views are correct - the investment agents are sitting around picking their noses at the moment - trading volume and big investment fees will pick up again when property starts to get dumped onto the market. I'd guess a one year lull before that starts happening.
the sp fall may have something to do with reports in the property press that Savills hasn't done a major investment deal for several weeks - compared to several a week a few months ago.
Also, Aubrey Adams is retiring soon and he was instrumental in turning S into what it is today. His successor runs the commercial division which overtook the residential in terms of revenue.
Despite S building up non-transactional work, it is very much dependent on commission revenue.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a bid. This share is looking really cheap. It's currently standing at very slightly less than 50% of its all-time high (May 2006) and this is a quality business with an international activity and a 4.8% div.
Standard Life have 14.33% and I see that today Goldman Sachs are now in at 3.1%.
If it's up for grabs there'll be plenty of interest and it won't be going cheap. Fill your boots now, as they say, because the current price will not last long and I doubt if we'll ever see the recent low of 344p again.
05/09/2006 - I have sold my holding because I think SVS has gone ex-growth. SVS is predominantly transaction-driven and I don't think it's getting the really juicy deals; there's intense competition for instructions and a casual reading of Estates Gazette suggests that of the quoted firms DTZ and CBRE are getting the lion's share.
My forecast for the commercial property adviser industry over the next few years in terms of instruction growth is helping clients maintain and enhance the value of existing assets rather than buying and selling. Big buyers are awash with cash and with hardly anything worth buying I think they'll sit on their hands rather than compromise. Pruning portfolios will continue but the good stuff probably already been sold and there's a limit. For surveyors that means professional work (for which there's also intense competition) but it's not as lucrative as commissions from buying and selling.
If you look at the trades, today for example (when the price has fallen by about 10% over the last few days), most of them are AT - automatic trades. Which probably means they are generated by programs which respond to certain triggers - e.g. if property sector falls by > 5%, reduce exposure to property by 20%. Hundreds of Savills sell orders get generated (along with a lot of others) as a result. It's not very selective.
But with all the concerns re sub-prime and over-inflated property prices, it doesn't look too good for Savills, whatever they do as an individual company.
Quite a few individual large sell trades too though - as the price falls, large holders start to bail out too.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.