Cashman is it just Tullow you don't like, our is it oil companies in general that you see no future in? If oil was to reach the $80 mark would you change your mind?..............I wonder what odds Ladbrokes would give me on...."Russia is in talks about joining OPEC." I know the media are saying the opposite , that Russia is loosing patience with OPEC.
Like many other E&P companies, Tullows share price has suffered due to fall in oil price and its high debt balance.
Tullows share price remains depressed due to dilutive impact of the rights issue coupled with lack of investor confidence on how the business will perform in the current market.
I believe management have now stabilised the business. Asset sales and rights issue have helped reduce its debt balance and capital expenditure commitments to manageable levels.
At current oil price business should generate steady free cash flows.
If management can successfully deliver on exploration led strategy it will be a big boon to the share price. I believe there is a high chance that Tullow will deliver.
Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Its core operations are based in Africa and South America. The key business activities include targeted exploration and appraisal and selective development and production. The company has over 85 licences in 17 countries. In the six months to June 2017, Tullow averaged production of 82,400 boepd.
Recent Financial Performance
The following table summarises historical and projected financial performance of Tullow. The projection is based on oil prices remaining flat at current levels (17 November 2017, crude brent: USD/bbl. 61.98). The projected uplift in net cash flows (from 2017 onwards) is driven by:
Reduction in interest expense from the pay-down of debt following the rights issue
Sell off of some of the Uganda project to Total resulting in lower development capex
In the analysis production is assumed to remain flat
Regarding capital expenditure, management havent provided capex guidance beyond 2017 and understably so as it will depend on many factors including the oil price. For the purpose of projection I have assumed capital expenditure of $600m p.a., and is for illustration purposes only
Interest rates have bottomed and on the way up. Tullow has a mountain of debt. The banks are first in line for any revenue, then the directors. It will be a long time before shareholders get a pay out. All while a smaller amount of cashflow gets reinvested in dusters.
The market is also 8 years into the recovery cycle and there is limited upside. Most markets are in a bubble. PEs are high. Very few shares can be found on a P/E less that 10 as some were in 2009.
Well it's difficult to extract and there isn't currently enough production to meet future demand but there is a lot in the ground and not actually that much lithium in a battery.
I saw something on Bloomberg a few weeks back. It said that expected demand over the next 12 years including a huge increase in electronic car production would require less than 1% of global reserves. Also if prices of lithium greatly increased it would hardly affect the price of batteries.
There are other elements in there but the main costs are down to how difficult safe lithium batteries are to make. The conclusion of the piece was don't invest in lithium miners but do invest in battery manufacturers.
There is plenty of oil, and the price is on the way up???!!!.......What makes the battery's so dear then? There must be other rare earth metals used, our maybe a lot of energy is used to extract the Lithium..............There is room for EV and combustion engines in this world especially as crude reserves are diminishing....I would start with every city bus and taxi......It seems if anybody disagrees with Elon Musk and asks questions, they are a hater, the true sign of a cult.
A lot of the media is falling for the hype, you have to go to the comments where people are finding the flaws. If the batteries for the truck cost $100,000 now, imagine when there is shortage of lithium what the batteries would cost...........The new Roadster sport car can go from zero to 60 miles an hour in 1.9 seconds and topping speeds at 250 miles an hour.........I think its time to invest in Tyre companies and undertakers.........Aren't Tyre's made from crude oil.............Kenya is slowly getting back to normal, which will filter through to Tullow. Give it time
Au contraire mon frere as Delboy would say.I believe any family with two cars should try if practical to have one of them electric.It's just all the hype of governments banning them in the future when most of them in power now will not be in power in ten years time.If we listen to all this hype there will be a big pullback on investment and we will be in a big boom and bust cycle.The super rich love the boom and bust economy even if it means misery for normal people...........Remember you still have to generate electricity for these cars....... In a strange way I admire Musk, the way he can fool the media and governments and collect subsidies...Can't wait for the film....... w1ckedsick I hope you get Tesla model 3.
It's interesting that I only ever see hate against Tesla on the oil forums I frequent but on every other type of forum it's incredibly positive. Yes, EVs are not great for your long term oil investments but that's ok. I've been invested in oil since 2008 and also have ordered a Tesla Model 3.
What the hell is going on with UK E&P companies? Oil price goes up, their share prices go nowhere. Oil price goes down, their share prices fall. If you compare the price of Brent Crude with the Tullow Oil share price, then at the start of 2017 TLW is a highly geared play on Brent. As 2017 progresses though the price of Tullow falls steadily despite the rise in Brent. As of today (15th Nov) over the past year the price of Brent is up +28% while the Tullow Oil share price is down 24% (including a fall of 5% today). What is going on?
Tesla will reveal its semi this Thursday, and Musk promises it will blow your mind clear out of your skull..If this is one of the people the world is depending on to bring EV to the masses then the world will have big problems....It will be interesting if the BBC gives this much credit, they are usually the last news organisation to fall for hype......So expect a big plastic semi truck looking very futuristic and a cartoon...If I don't post again my mind has left my skull and has not returned.
"Tullow Oil raised its production guidance on Wednesday thanks to higher than expected output from its TEN and Jubilee fields in Ghana, leading research analysts at Credit Suisse to up their target price on the group's shares from 205p to 240p.
The London based oil and gas exploration firm raised its full-year guidance for oil production from its West African operations from 78,000-85,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) to 85,000-89,000 bopd.
Tullow forecast roughly $400m of free cash flow for itself in the current financial year, driven by higher oil prices and increased production, helping the group better maintain its debt position.
Nonetheless, Credit Suisse analysts noted that Tullow's Ugandan operation was the big question mark on the company's horizon, as continued delays in securing pre-emption agreements and government approval had already pushed projects slated to be in the financial investment decisions stage in 2017 into the next financial year."
I always find when the results are good and in the newspaper the next day, the share price will tick up, even with modern communications. Most people in the oil industry will tell you that this was one of the worst downturns. Tullow has learnt a lot, and come through it leaner and stronger.
Click Here for more Tullow Oil Plc. (PC) Charts.
By Ian Walker
Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) on Wednesday raised its full-year West Africa production guidance following strong production performances from the TEN and Jubilee fields in Ghana.
The independent oil & gas, exploration and production group now expects to produce 85,000 to 89,000 barrels of oil per day from West Africa, compared with previous guidance of 78,000-85,000 barrels of oil per day.
It didn't say how the fields have been producing to date, but at the time of its first-half earnings in July Tullow said West Africa net working interest oil production averaged 81,400 barrels of oil per day.
Tullow is keeping 2017 gas production guidance from its European portfolio at 5,500 to 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. It said that production will be adjusted to reflect the sale of its Netherlands portfolio to Hague and London Oil once the deal completes later this month.
Tullow has also lowered its capital expenditure guidance to $0.3 billion, and said it expects free cash flow of around $0.4 billion for the year.
Write to Ian Walker at [email protected]; @IanWalk40289749
At last, the corruption around Saudi Oil has surfaced, despite being blatant for decades. My guess is that the fiddling was so extensive that the Aramco figures just wouldn't add up unless it was tackled. Civil unrest is bound to erupt unless the masses are satisfied that enough of the cash has been recovered but will investors, who are being asked to stump up massive amounts of cash, trust the secrecy around the books enough to risk it without being sure that it isn't being syphoned off for fast cars, drugs and parties? Will be interesting to watch. What will the Saudis do if they can't raise the cash to keep going?
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The Rig count is the thing that could derail the upward trend of crude oil.It is a very crude statistics,some shale wells will only produce 200 barrels a day others 10 times that. The market likes to use it when they wants to keep oil down...........If it does show a build, it will only slowdown the inevitable.
When individual shorts reduce in this situation the reason is clear. When they increase, not so clear. An increase in the position could be a genuine short term short speculation or it could be forced selling to restrain the price because order book shenanigans aren't working. Given the increase in the price today on high volume, my guess is the latter. Also expect more of that false downgradings and pessimism. TLW is OK at the current oil price and can be expected to be consolidating its position with carefully considered hedging.
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