Look at the charts both are in down channels. Hey I do not run the algos on these things. They change what they give periodically what Tullow runs on against the oil price. They will up rate Tullow when the bank redetermination is complete and that is big news for ullow if that all goes well.
What is interesting is that a gap above in the charts to 186p but also there is a gap underneath in the 158-160 area. There is a great trading opportunity here.
If $55 breaks so does Tullow SP. All depends if $55 can hold. Calibrated Tullow price would be around 174p-175p at that level. 4 hour channel says it might be there tomorrow morning. Equally a hold at $55 and move back up is very good for Tullow as it is tightly linked to Brent on a high beta.
The shorts down again today, to 8.01%, just Marshall Wace playing contrarian with an increase from 1.71 on 21/09/2017 to 1.98% on 29/09/2017. Odey still unmoved since 8/09/2017 at 1.48% (so the declarations say). I therefore deduce that downward pressure is still being brought to bear on the price while the short traders close. Lansdown played the best game, first in and first out. Of the remaining positions AHL seems to have played the ups and downs best imho and they are now making their exit, 0.87% today from 0.97 declared on 29/09/2017 and a high of 1.10% on 14/08/2017.
Just following oil up and down as usual and the forces behind that chart are as inscrutable as ever, but the pundits seem to find an explanation for every twist and turn by emphasising the news that fits the bill and ignoring anything else.
Gap to close as Brent likely to lose another dollar per barrel. More USA rigs are coming on line and the Chinese have stocked up until next week. Tullow following previous pattern of 6p drop for every $1 USD drop in Brent.
North Korean hackers ready to ransack City
The ex-head of GCHQ has warned of the rogue states ambitions
Richard Kerbaj, Security Correspondent
October 1 2017, 12:01am,
The Sunday Times
North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is targeting Britains finances, said Robert Hannigan
North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is targeting Britains finances, said Robert Hannigan
North Korea is set to become a premier league player in cyber-warfare as it tries to loot Britains financial sector. Losses inflicted by sanctions are threatening its nuclear ambitions, the former head of GCHQ has warned.
Robert Hannigan, who ran Britains signals intelligence agency for three years until March, warned: Theyre after our money. He said Pyongyangs reclusive regime was sharpening its hacking abilities via its collaboration with Iran and criminal networks operating from southeast Asia and China.
While its military weapons were not a direct threat to the UK, its cyber-capabilities were, warned Hannigan in his first newspaper interview since leaving his post.
He cited the example of its WannaCry ransomware attack, which in May crippled NHS computers at hospitals and GP surgeries in an attempt to extort money.
Their missiles are not going to reach the UK but their cyber-attacks did reach the NHS and other parts of Europe, said Hannigan, 52.
As sanctions bite further and North Korea becomes more desperate for foreign currency, they will get more aggressive and continue to come after the finance sector. Theyre after our money.
Hannigans warning follows rising tensions between America and North Korea over its nuclear and missiles programmes, which led to new UN sanctions against the regimes shipping and trade networks last month.
Its attacks can be launched from outside the country by outsourcing to criminal groups, Hannigan said.
Their threshold for risk is sky-high and they dont really care about collateral damage. They are not in the premier league yet not in the top five nations but they are getting there.
Hannigan: In 20 years time people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internetHannigan: In 20 years time people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internet
Hannigan said the Wests ability to deal with North Koreas cyber-aggression was limited because the country was not networked so its vulnerabilities to western cyber-attacks were minor.
He said collaboration between hostile states and criminal networks had become the greatest threat to Britain.
Some of them are tasked by states, some of them owned by states. They have sophisticated tools, some of them stolen from western governments, [including] the US government.
The former spymaster also warned about Russias growing obsession with disinformation campaigns to influence political outcomes and undermine democracy.
There is a trend of disinformation and political manipulation, which happened long before cyberspace was going on, right through the Cold War, he said of Russias cyber-propaganda.
This is the subject of an FBI inquiry into alleged meddling by Moscow to tilt last years US election in Donald Trumps favour.
Cyber is just a new and very productive way of doing it. Its bound to grow they have found new tools of doing it through social media, through the tech companies.
Were going to see more of the same and more sophisticated attacks. More of the disinformation, more stealing of money, more disruption of systems.
Hannigan said many of the security setbacks being dealt with were as a result of the internet being built without safety in mind.
In 20 years time I think people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internet, into devices and to software. People should be able to take their cyber-security for granted in the way they do car safety. That should be the goal, he said.
The biggest threat to capitalism in Britain is the ongoing assault on private shareholders
Richard Dyson 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 7:56AM
While Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May set out their differing philosophical positions on capitalism this week, a very real threat to Britains army of private shareholders continued to draw nearer.
Largely unobserved and little understood, this threat comes in the form of new financial regulations originating in Europe and set to apply here from January 2018. Whatever our views of capitalism, we all invest.
One way or another, we own small parts of many enterprises. Some of us invest out of necessity or without any interest or active choice. At the other end of spectrum some of us invest almost solely for pleasure.
Whatever our impetus, the role of small shareholders as providers of business finance is a basic plank of capitalism. It has served us well, and it does not need now of all times to come under attack.
We choose to give our custom to many companies, and we admire certain of them; why not be able to own them in part and play some role however miniscule in their management and future?
Britains stock markets and global trade grew on the back of private shareholder wealth. Until the Seventies individual investors owned around half of the value of the equities traded on Londons exchange. It is only in recent decades that the owners of shares quoted there have become predominantly large institutions and overseas concerns.
British Prime Minister Theresa May walks out at 10 Downing Street
Whatever our views of capitalism, we all invest, and Britain's army of private shareholders face a very real threat: new financial regulations set to apply here from 2018 CREDIT: AP PHOTO/FRANK AUGSTEIN
But many of those large institutions, of course, are the pension funds whose ultimate object is to invest our money on our behalf. This is why those who seek to demonise institutional investors are so naive and wrong-headed: often the end owners of the secretive overseas investment vehicles, as depicted by conspiracy theorists, are thousands of teachers in California or railworkers in Canada.
While Londons main stock market has become institutional, its noteworthy that about half of the secondary Alternative Investment Market remains in the hands of individual shareholders, underscoring the role private investors play in helping new businesses grow.
The threat to shareholders arrives in the form of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or Mifid, a long-in-the-making set of rules aimed at protecting investors from... from, well, from what is not quite clear.
Certainly from themselves, for the directives starting assumption appears to be the widespread fecklessness and gullibility of the public at large.
The legislation is vague enough to be open to interpretation, and in todays culture of compliance you can be certain most lawyers will interpret it in its severest form. What it does is make shares and indeed corporate bonds products, issued by manufacturers, the latter being the brokers who facilitate the float.
The burden on brokers who issue shares to individuals is so great that many will in future refuse. So, in short, the limited opportunities investors already face in buying new-to-market shares will dwindle further.
At worst, there may evolve parallel markets where institutions deal on one and private savers are left to the pickings on another, smaller, inevitably more costly, market.
Paul Killik, founder of the eponymous Killik & Co broker and for decades a champion of private investing, describes the move as taking dangerous risks with capitalism by depriving individuals of having a direct relationship with the companies they own.
Link not working. Put in a general search........SPACEX-BLOOPERS-REEL........I like the man and some of his dreams. Its just the big news sites do not question anything anymore....Now if Elon had said women would not be able to pilot one of these rockets he would be tore apart and made to apologizes twenty times.
I think we all know there is a bit of snake oil being sold, it's just the way news sites like the BBC and Bloomberg take everything as gospel, according to ELON. They said he is sending battery packs to hurricane stricken islands. They did not say how many will be sent or how they will be charged.............Digging a little deeper I see that he will be using floating landing and take off pads near major cities for his one hour rocket. https://www.theverge.com/tldr/2017/9/14/16306224/spacex-blooper-reel
Harry, you should take Elon Musk very seriously, he is after all, a $ billionaire 20 times over. He is very good at making money for himself, he just hasn't yet proved that he is good at making it for his investors.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the contract for manufacturing his travel rockets will be let to a certain North Korean who has a talent for doing that sort of thing on a low budget. Could Ryanair follow up with a pilotless version of the rocket that will requires the last passenger to light the blue touch paper before scrambling on board and strapping in.
Musk also has plans to travel to the Moon and to set up a colony on Mars by 2024. He obviously doesn't have time to watch the movies and doesn't understand that space is teeming with aliens that have bases on Mars and the Moon and eat people. I've heard it said that world governments know but have been keeping it a secret. At least passengers wouldn't be asking for their money back though.
He has to keep the capital ball rolling to keep the money flowing. It will be interesting to see what comes after rockets.
No news site questions Elon Musk, they just show his lovely graphics, and this is how its done.His latest project is to let people fly anywhere in the world within one hour.So get there in one hour and spend a week being sick..........Will he have to build new landing and take off sites and new rail and road infrastructure. Remember Concord and the noise factor......Is he coming out with this rubbish so the spotlight is taken off Tesla which is loosing top people and money by the bucket load.....
sage, not a question of knowing what is going on just s matter of deducing it from observation of many such cycles and activities in the order book. Proof can only be obtained by an analysis of the de-anonymised orders and that can only be done by the regulators or by the market makers who are supposed to monitor activity to ensure proper governance. It isn't isolated to TLW its is, imho, it is widespread across the whole market. The only way to regulate it properly would be to introduce electronic policing systems to monitor the trades and gather evidence. Until then we can only hope that the regulators make significant effort to prosecute the big offenders to make an example of them and that the courts apply realistic penalties. The topical criminal prosecutions for fraud against senior figures in Tesco is encouraging. For too long offenders have got off too lightly because such activities have been underrated or juries have been unable to understand what has gone on.
As for hiding stop losses, it would do no good. Hidden or not, everyone knows they are there and that they will start triggering automatically when the market price reaches them. Imho they are like rows of sitting ducks. Many of them will simply be bought back by the short sellers who sold them just days earlier at a higher price. To some extent you could say that is the fault of the victims but if the price has been driven down deliberately it is nothing short of fraud.
What I think is a more likely scenario is that the price will be walked down towards a point where stop losses were set in the price rise after the ITLOS decision; some of the more cautious stops may already have triggered. The short sellers may then begin riding the wave buy to profit from any short selling in the spike and also continue closing their short positions until the stop losses and emotional selling have been exploited to the fullest extent. That and the oil price are the most likely explanation for a pull back in TLW's price. For now Brent seems content to keep within that $57 bracket.
The longs who wish to benefit from a recent purchase should consider their stop loss strategy in the light of the above possibility. So often stops are triggered only for the price to then rise again. Stop losses are not a particularly effective protection, especially in a volatile stock. Often the best strategy is to buy some on the way up and then buy some more on the way down again. We've had lots of good news that has sparked positive comments and upgrades to explain the rise in price but nothing to explain a pullback. If £1.90+ was a good buy a few days ago then today's price is even better value.
Okay I stand corrected on the October comment and should have gone through to 2009. Another error is that the moon festival is like our Easter and can vary out by five weeks. An additional factor has been the EU depressing its oil consumption in previous years that probably mask any holiday effect.
tony, you make some interesting comments so I looked back and I'm not convinced. To me it looks as though October simply follows the prevailing trend. I think that the spot oil price is highly influenced by future contracts and that tends to iron out seasonal short term demand changes. Last year for example Brent did well in October but dropped off the cliff in November. In October 2105 Brent fell but that was the beginning of a longer term drop until January 2016. Going further back I can't really see any convincing evidence of a specific October effect.
Of course there is huge amounts of travel in China this week. Hence why so much demand for additional oil was happening earlier in the month. The reality is that the Chinese option desks are closed in Hong Kong, Shanghai and probably in New York from this afternoon. Their absence has a profound effect. India will probably pick up some of the slack but the Middle East oil consumption also drops sharply as well as temperatures are just that much cooler than in August. The European demand comes back on line during November along with China. October is rarely a good month for Tullow along with most oil companies. They usually do much better in November. If I am right, I will be back in Tullow by then.
The pull back today is slowly closing a major gap in the charts. If Brent hits $55, that gap to 177p should then close up.
tony, I agree in general with your conclusion but the oil price is much more important to TLW than it's own news imho and volatility seems confined within its $57 range at the moment and I can't see the Chinese autumn festival impacting that. In fact it leads to increased travel as they all rush home to their families:
There has been plenty of positive specific TLW news recently but as the reaction to that recedes so will the short interests find it easier to organise an orderly withdrawal, helped by a steadying oil price. They will take every opportunity to trade the price down but they won't overcome the longer term effect of TLW's improving fortunes or an unexpected increase in the oil price. The oil market was widely expected to rebalance in 2018 and recent events have had a positive effect on that target. Demand is still growing and will continue to do so for many years according to authoritative opinion. As demand increases the effects of reduced investment in exploration will bite. Venezuela is still teetering on the edge and its collapse alone could lead to a spike in the oil price.
Yesterday's list of declared shorts showed a further reduction to 8.14% with reductions by Capital Fund Management and Millennium. Late notifications are still the order of the day and that allows them to wheedle out a bit more breathing space and confirms their intentions. One has to wonder whether those relatively minor but persistent infringements hint at more serious inaccuracies in the declarations
Odey's declaration has been static at 1.48% since 8th September.
Only dramatic good news or a spike in the price of oil will disrupt the gradual wind down in the short positions. A good opportunity for the longs at these levels. That 8.14% represents 112.7 million shares still short, worth around £212.3 million at the current price. Odey's share of that is about 20.5 million shares currently worth about £38.6m, for example. Every penny off the share price is worth a lot to the short positions. A dividend would rattle the shorts but no prospect of that yet unless we see a significant oil price spike to increase free cash flow.
With Chinese ports having taken in all the extra crude for the Moon holidays, I would expect Brent to dip and then move up to $57 again when China reopens for business as normal in a weeks time. Tullow at 188 is about right for $57 on present dollar strength. In the meantime shale in USA fields comes back on line. Oil companies are also buying hedges at the current price. Only Tullow specific news would drive its SP upwards.
RBC Capital believes Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) is gaining momentum as it restarts the development of TEN and resolves the Jubilee turret issue.
The bank added: "combined with a firmer oil price these fields should underpin a year-end refinancing that allows management to redirect investors' attention towards its value creation (Guyana and Kenya) and harvesting (Ghana and Uganda) activities."
Analysts have therefore upgraded their recommendation to 'outperform' (from 'sector perform') and lifted their price target to 260 pence a share (from 200 pence), implying 36% potential upside.
At 3:50pm: (LON:TLW) Tullow Oil PLC share price was +1.9p at 192.9p
"Real rebalancing" could lift oil prices to $80/bbl, S&P commodity chief says
Sep. 27, 2017 12:59 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
The recent rise in crude oil prices are poised to continue, eventually to possibly as high as $80-$85/bbl, as there is now a "real rebalancing" in the market, Jodie Gunzberg, head of commodity and real asset indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices, tells CNBC.
Support is coming from several sources, including OPEC members complying with production cuts and China demand growth, with an added push from refinery disruptions in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, according to Gunzberg.
"When we look at the index data, we can see the price could move even as high as $80-$85 - not immediately, but with their structural backwardation and shortages in the market, you just can't replenish it overnight," Gunzberg says.
Ed Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodities research, says a supply gap could emerge in the market as early as 2018, as some nations including Iraq already may be pumping at maximum capacity.
If production reductions are prolonged, it would only hasten the prospect of a tighter market, Morse says, adding that the source of the supply squeeze likely would be OPEC rather than producers outside the group since theres no room for them to do more."
Declared shorts down again to 8.38% today. Odey still at 1.48%. No doubt that they are putting the brakes on the upward momentum as they gradually close. Only unexpected good news will stop them from managing their exit like that. They are providing a good opportunity for buyers though. Imho they are dong their best to keep the price below £2. Not relevant on the chart but an important psychological threshold.
FWIW I have a potential target at 215-217, before your target area of 240 (I have 240-243 on that one). Covering of shorts could really get the price moving so why not 240 area. I'll have no (or almost no) internet access next week and have set a limit for a spike up.
Remember China is on holiday for all of next week just about. The September contract probably closes on Friday for the quarter. It is unlikely that crude would do much on the week when the world' biggest importer of crude is not contracting its crude imports. I expect a fairly non-eventful week for Tullow so any big moves has just tomorrow and this afternoon to play out.
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