"Everybody loves a comeback. At the very least, the oil sector will be echoing these sentiments as the price of Brent crude gradually moves towards $60 resistance levels. After reaching a two-year high of $59 a barrel last week, the $28 nadir ..."
Musk seems to roll out new projects in a frenzy to maintain credibility and keep the ball rolling. Now he's installing the world's biggest battery in Australia with a promise that it will be free if not completed on time, although I think he waited until much of the work was completed before the contract was signed and the clock started ticking:
In real terms the battery array is pretty small beer in terms of grid storage but Elon is milking the publicity for all he can:
"Tesla claims its array, manufactured at the company's new Gigafactory in Nevada, will be able to power about 30,000 homes. It will store up to 129 MWh of electricity, meaning at full power it will last for a little over an hour."
"To achieve its planned production rate of 500,000 cars per year by 2018, Tesla alone will require todays entire worldwide supply of lithium-ion batteries. The Tesla Gigafactory was born out of necessity and will supply enough batteries to support Teslas projected vehicle demand."
"The Gigafactory is being built in phases so that Tesla can begin manufacturing immediately inside the finished sections and continue to expand thereafter. Already, the current structure has a footprint of more than 1.9 million square feet, which houses more than 4.9 million square feet of operational space across several floors. Still, the Gigafactory is less than 30 percent done. Once complete, Tesla expects the Gigafactory to be the biggest building in the world and entirely powered by renewable energy sources, with the goal of achieving net zero energy."
Some are also questioning the availability of lithium
"Teslas charismatic chief executive Elon Musk seems to think that if he builds cars, the lithium will come. "
Can it possibly work or will it go the same way as DeLorean? We'll see but if the project should fail I doubt that Elon Musk will bear the greatest pain. There would be plenty of white elephants left to remember him by though.
I see there is one good blogger that has done a bit of investigation on one of the people the world is depending on to get rid of combustible engines .............First look up all the hype in main stream media on Spacex Hyperloop. Then go to YouTube and put in Thunderfoot hyperloop.......Elon your time is running out, but I have to give you credit for the way you bulls$$$ the press.....If you can't convince them , confuse them, should be your motto.
Nothing there to suggest that there are any financing issues, slide 14 states "Refinancing expected in 2H 2017". They wouldn't be able to say that if they were aware of any factors to make the word "expected" a misrepresentation.
Slides 35-39 illustrate current exploration prospects.
It could well be that TOTAL has an interest in ensuring that TLW is not overvalued by the market. I think that we can expect a return of M&A activity as the oil price recovers and a potential bidder would want to try to avoid an unjustified spike in TLW's market cap. If a bid does emerge it will need to be competitive. I doubt that other predators would stand aside and see TLW taken over for a song. Competition by predators will only increase as those cuts in exploration start to bite. Also a bid would be open to shareholder and public scrutiny and would therefore need to be priced realistically. For me the best value will come from TLW remaining independent though. Slide 9 of the presentation states "Positioned to deliver value growth over the next 3-5 years". I'd be happier to continue accumulating over that timescale.
Declared shorts down below 8% in today's list. One reduction by AHL from 0.87% to 0.79%, no increases, AHL have played their short position pretty well since their first declaration on 18/03/2015. They were at 1.12% on 21/08/2017 and reduced to 1.06% on 25/09/2017 since when the latest declaration is the third reduction in a row. They haven't been this low since 28/04/2017 when they were at 0.84%. Imho the frequency of the latest notifications suggests that they are closing with some haste.
All Analysts give prices on what may occur. Jefferies have not changed their position since 1 August as I checked it.
Tullow and the banks usually resolve debt positions on a six monthly basis. (March and September). There has been problems in the background. Hence why Tullow now says it will be sorted by the end of the year as it could not confirm a debt rollover last week.
Like it or not the banks are closing debts in E and P companies and have been doing so for months. So Tullow will either have another RI or they are selling assets again perhaps more to Total. The company has indicated that it has to reduce its gearing to 2.5x from the current 3.8x. That pressure is coming from the banks, which are concerned with interest rate rises on the horizon that clients with big debts wont pay them back..
Jefferies have a client relationship with Total. (For holders here to note). They are also well connected to banks.
They are the only analyst predicting another Tullow Rights Issue. If another RI took place for $750M the share price would be near 155p. That is the whole basis of their argument. They are transparent about it and at least put it in black and white to read. Analysts who are completely useless are the ones who pick any old figure and do not say why.
The Jefferies analysis giving 155p is based on one solitary issue. It is there belief that the banks are not going to rollover the $3.8B debt. They are the only broker taking that view. The argument against it was the rights issue and investors already put $750M into the pot.
As for Brent the down channel is broken. So in theory the next move is up to 186p. Brent to hit $57 where it closed last Friday in time for Chinese markets when they open giving my dormant week overall forecast. We shall see.
Tullow will be announcing shortly regarding the drilling contract for Ghana and will be back drilling in Jan 2018. I don't think we will see much increase in the SP, until we have some detail of the production figures.
And apparently...according to Jefferies...Tullow position has got weaker (by nearly a quid) after winning a case that has secured its rights to drill for more wells and dramatically increase its production that has taken years to resolve...
Clear break on the down channel resistance line is at 55.97. This would need to be taken out and held for a few hours to give a new change of direction for Tullow. Gap close to 186 would probably get filled as an initial move if the resistance breaks..
The gearing is obviously due to specific influences. i.e. leverage applied in the order book. It therefore depends on who is imposing the greatest influence in the book. While there is a significant short interest the gearing will therefore exaggerate downward movement and sometimes suppress upward movement whole the shorts are trying to exit. It may do the opposite when the shorts are building their position or trading on news. Imho the effect can look confused as traders take advantage of short term volatility trigger events. The simple solution is to either watch the fundamentals and follow a considered strategy for the longer term or watch the book and play the short term volatility.
The short positions have closed significantly over recent weeks. While they are active in that TLW's price is going to be restrained except in periods when the market is too strong to influence. TLW's fundamentals are improving quickly now and the oil market is showing every sign of rebalancing. TLW won't perform to its potential until the short positions are closes. That's another way of saying that it is a buying opportunity.
There are just 7 short positions now remaining, competing to close without spiking the share price up. Imho the larger ones are sitting back to allow the others to do the work before they come in. The strategies of individual short sellers varies. Lansdowne, for example, played the long game, opening their position very early and then closing it (or dipping below the publication threshold) in line with their longer term perspective. Even the positions that appear dormant have a 0.1% band (almost 1.4 million shares) in which they can trade without notification.
In the meantime it is easy to set thresholds that become panic points for PI's, without any justification. Just like stop loss hunting really. The best thing is to decide your strategy, watch the real news and keep a cool head.
Look at the charts both are in down channels. Hey I do not run the algos on these things. They change what they give periodically what Tullow runs on against the oil price. They will up rate Tullow when the bank redetermination is complete and that is big news for ullow if that all goes well.
What is interesting is that a gap above in the charts to 186p but also there is a gap underneath in the 158-160 area. There is a great trading opportunity here.
If $55 breaks so does Tullow SP. All depends if $55 can hold. Calibrated Tullow price would be around 174p-175p at that level. 4 hour channel says it might be there tomorrow morning. Equally a hold at $55 and move back up is very good for Tullow as it is tightly linked to Brent on a high beta.
The shorts down again today, to 8.01%, just Marshall Wace playing contrarian with an increase from 1.71 on 21/09/2017 to 1.98% on 29/09/2017. Odey still unmoved since 8/09/2017 at 1.48% (so the declarations say). I therefore deduce that downward pressure is still being brought to bear on the price while the short traders close. Lansdown played the best game, first in and first out. Of the remaining positions AHL seems to have played the ups and downs best imho and they are now making their exit, 0.87% today from 0.97 declared on 29/09/2017 and a high of 1.10% on 14/08/2017.
Just following oil up and down as usual and the forces behind that chart are as inscrutable as ever, but the pundits seem to find an explanation for every twist and turn by emphasising the news that fits the bill and ignoring anything else.
Gap to close as Brent likely to lose another dollar per barrel. More USA rigs are coming on line and the Chinese have stocked up until next week. Tullow following previous pattern of 6p drop for every $1 USD drop in Brent.
North Korean hackers ready to ransack City
The ex-head of GCHQ has warned of the rogue states ambitions
Richard Kerbaj, Security Correspondent
October 1 2017, 12:01am,
The Sunday Times
North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is targeting Britains finances, said Robert Hannigan
North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, is targeting Britains finances, said Robert Hannigan
North Korea is set to become a premier league player in cyber-warfare as it tries to loot Britains financial sector. Losses inflicted by sanctions are threatening its nuclear ambitions, the former head of GCHQ has warned.
Robert Hannigan, who ran Britains signals intelligence agency for three years until March, warned: Theyre after our money. He said Pyongyangs reclusive regime was sharpening its hacking abilities via its collaboration with Iran and criminal networks operating from southeast Asia and China.
While its military weapons were not a direct threat to the UK, its cyber-capabilities were, warned Hannigan in his first newspaper interview since leaving his post.
He cited the example of its WannaCry ransomware attack, which in May crippled NHS computers at hospitals and GP surgeries in an attempt to extort money.
Their missiles are not going to reach the UK but their cyber-attacks did reach the NHS and other parts of Europe, said Hannigan, 52.
As sanctions bite further and North Korea becomes more desperate for foreign currency, they will get more aggressive and continue to come after the finance sector. Theyre after our money.
Hannigans warning follows rising tensions between America and North Korea over its nuclear and missiles programmes, which led to new UN sanctions against the regimes shipping and trade networks last month.
Its attacks can be launched from outside the country by outsourcing to criminal groups, Hannigan said.
Their threshold for risk is sky-high and they dont really care about collateral damage. They are not in the premier league yet not in the top five nations but they are getting there.
Hannigan: In 20 years time people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internetHannigan: In 20 years time people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internet
Hannigan said the Wests ability to deal with North Koreas cyber-aggression was limited because the country was not networked so its vulnerabilities to western cyber-attacks were minor.
He said collaboration between hostile states and criminal networks had become the greatest threat to Britain.
Some of them are tasked by states, some of them owned by states. They have sophisticated tools, some of them stolen from western governments, [including] the US government.
The former spymaster also warned about Russias growing obsession with disinformation campaigns to influence political outcomes and undermine democracy.
There is a trend of disinformation and political manipulation, which happened long before cyberspace was going on, right through the Cold War, he said of Russias cyber-propaganda.
This is the subject of an FBI inquiry into alleged meddling by Moscow to tilt last years US election in Donald Trumps favour.
Cyber is just a new and very productive way of doing it. Its bound to grow they have found new tools of doing it through social media, through the tech companies.
Were going to see more of the same and more sophisticated attacks. More of the disinformation, more stealing of money, more disruption of systems.
Hannigan said many of the security setbacks being dealt with were as a result of the internet being built without safety in mind.
In 20 years time I think people will be amazed that security wasnt built into the internet, into devices and to software. People should be able to take their cyber-security for granted in the way they do car safety. That should be the goal, he said.
The biggest threat to capitalism in Britain is the ongoing assault on private shareholders
Richard Dyson 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 7:56AM
While Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May set out their differing philosophical positions on capitalism this week, a very real threat to Britains army of private shareholders continued to draw nearer.
Largely unobserved and little understood, this threat comes in the form of new financial regulations originating in Europe and set to apply here from January 2018. Whatever our views of capitalism, we all invest.
One way or another, we own small parts of many enterprises. Some of us invest out of necessity or without any interest or active choice. At the other end of spectrum some of us invest almost solely for pleasure.
Whatever our impetus, the role of small shareholders as providers of business finance is a basic plank of capitalism. It has served us well, and it does not need now of all times to come under attack.
We choose to give our custom to many companies, and we admire certain of them; why not be able to own them in part and play some role however miniscule in their management and future?
Britains stock markets and global trade grew on the back of private shareholder wealth. Until the Seventies individual investors owned around half of the value of the equities traded on Londons exchange. It is only in recent decades that the owners of shares quoted there have become predominantly large institutions and overseas concerns.
British Prime Minister Theresa May walks out at 10 Downing Street
Whatever our views of capitalism, we all invest, and Britain's army of private shareholders face a very real threat: new financial regulations set to apply here from 2018 CREDIT: AP PHOTO/FRANK AUGSTEIN
But many of those large institutions, of course, are the pension funds whose ultimate object is to invest our money on our behalf. This is why those who seek to demonise institutional investors are so naive and wrong-headed: often the end owners of the secretive overseas investment vehicles, as depicted by conspiracy theorists, are thousands of teachers in California or railworkers in Canada.
While Londons main stock market has become institutional, its noteworthy that about half of the secondary Alternative Investment Market remains in the hands of individual shareholders, underscoring the role private investors play in helping new businesses grow.
The threat to shareholders arrives in the form of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or Mifid, a long-in-the-making set of rules aimed at protecting investors from... from, well, from what is not quite clear.
Certainly from themselves, for the directives starting assumption appears to be the widespread fecklessness and gullibility of the public at large.
The legislation is vague enough to be open to interpretation, and in todays culture of compliance you can be certain most lawyers will interpret it in its severest form. What it does is make shares and indeed corporate bonds products, issued by manufacturers, the latter being the brokers who facilitate the float.
The burden on brokers who issue shares to individuals is so great that many will in future refuse. So, in short, the limited opportunities investors already face in buying new-to-market shares will dwindle further.
At worst, there may evolve parallel markets where institutions deal on one and private savers are left to the pickings on another, smaller, inevitably more costly, market.
Paul Killik, founder of the eponymous Killik & Co broker and for decades a champion of private investing, describes the move as taking dangerous risks with capitalism by depriving individuals of having a direct relationship with the companies they own.
Link not working. Put in a general search........SPACEX-BLOOPERS-REEL........I like the man and some of his dreams. Its just the big news sites do not question anything anymore....Now if Elon had said women would not be able to pilot one of these rockets he would be tore apart and made to apologizes twenty times.
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