If it was me I would cover and wait for the dust to settle. A .3% increase on wages inflation is nothing really to worry about and we now have a new Fed chairman. He could start to look at weakening the dollar and that would reverse this so its still not clear. I have been watching the T Bond yield and it looks like it wants to go higher off the Fed minutes. Then its really a psychology game and that is the hard bit to figure out. If I had to guess this could be a false break down and the real one will come in May 2018 when inflation starts to really hit.
I have a feeling this could push us down further - there was a clear indication of three rate increases for this year when they met. If the minutes do not show this then it will be positive news short term but then to say nothing of how many and the fear of wage inflation increase we can only expect fear of the next NFP.
Either way its going to struggle from here on-wards. Unless we see inflation data ease off.
not looking great tbh....needs to get back above and hold 7300.
the rsi has broken support, failed to get above the 50 neutral line....if this could nasty again if 7200 fails...
whats worrying me more is the prospect of the 50 day ema line feature (green line), is quickly approaching the 200 day ema line....if those do cross over with a end of week close.....this could well be indicative of mid/longer term weakness.....
we need to avoid that....
24989 the key number here....no break no higher.....
This doesn't look that bad tbh....lets see if it can bounce back today and break above that trendline....
good day yesterday using 24989 and 25140 to trade off....but i'm on the sidelines now...partly because i'm too tired to trade today....lets see....
The IG charts are actually good, the only issue to consider about IG charts is that they will include out of hours and futures data.....and that can be an issue imvho....as that that data is not always reliable.....
i think its best to use trading hours only charts for indices...to trade from....for individual stocks ig charts will be ok.....
Just my 2 cents worth, because if it works for you keep it going.....
" MORRISON (WM) (LSE:MRW)Â It's aways tempting to declare a Lack of Interest when covering Morrison Supermarket. In our little part of Argyll, the choice of supermarket is limited to one and frankly, they can be less than efficient. What other ..."
Charts are from IG's version of PRT which uses IG realtime data. Data for indices and Forex seems okay and I check levels when entering a trade on IG. IG small equity data on PRT is often very poor or missing altogether.
I use PRT's own platform (with their data) for equity analysis - only end of day but seems okay and tallies with Tradingview, Stockcharts etc in the main.
Thanks SB. I rarely go above minimum size! Agree with the strategy though.
Here's another view of the Dow on four hourly with an ascending triangle. As Bulkowski says, these perform best when the breakout is downward, especially in a bear market.
TF's 24989 level is around the lower triangle line. Measured move from a triangle breakdown would hit TF's bottom channel line.
This looks bearish to me. http://screencast.com/t/jjhdjOhi561C
A technique I use for that is to reduce size and try and look at longer timeframes before reentry. After a very solid couple of weeks I am on minimums now. Didnt work out yesterday but meant I only gave back about 3% of the last few weeks gains.
When/if it gets back into a better run I will scale up a bit again.
There's nothing terribly special about it pen. It's simply a moving average cross over strategy on fairly short term time frames which seems to like the volatility (so far).
This morning I went long at 25160 it almost immediately went against me. I thought I ticked the hedging box. I tried to hedge it as it fell but ended up cancelling out my long (rather than opening a hedge) at 25120 for -40 pts.
Went back in long (x 1/4 stake) at 25130 with no stop atm.
She was looking a bit oversold and I think she'll at least close the gap above before coming down.
If youre having a run of good luck, make sure you set some alarms to warn you when its ending. Maybe with 3-4 consecutive losing trades, suspend trading for 24-48 hours and then re-evaluate everything.
Maybe your trading is just getting better though.
Id like to hear and learn about your new system!
" SCANCELL HOLDINGS (LSE:SCLP) For the n'th year running, the USA managed to surprise by sneaking in "Washington Birthday" as an excuse to close the markets. Quite why a President who promoted a gun culture which led to todays USA is feted ..."
Thanks for that and thanks for making me think a bit more clearly about how I was trading at Xmas time. And thanks to all the others for pointers (you know who you are).
At the moment I'm inclined to the view that I'm having a run of good luck!
That said I did impose a new system on myself a couple of weeks ago which may coincide with my good luck. And, as a result of that system, I am certainly bringing more discipline to the table.
Between now/then and Easter, as it happens, I have the opportunity to spend most of my time at the screen on an almost daily basis which was not the position before. It may be that that makes a significant difference.
Let's see where we are at Easter (appropriately April the 1st!) then I might (with some child like embarrassment) elaborate on what I'm doing. I'm still entirely unconvinced that I have a clue!
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