FWIW I think we are going have a small correction (3% ish) in the next week or so, then I think we'll be off to the races with new ATHs happening up to Easter when the reporting season for Q1 starts. Then - say in the last half of April I think she's going to tank (5 to 15%)
Partly based upon reading various EWT afficionados who think we are in an extending W3 or 5 of some minor form which will be followed by a minor W 4 down before the final 5 up. We all know what happens at the end of wave 5. I'm calling April for that - but these things are impossible to time.
Beyond that I believe we may see disappointment in the some of the earnings figures for Q1 (and this dovetails with my April call) as last year's figures were much better than the appalling year before. Ergo we have a higher base to improve on this year and I think the forecasters may be being a tad over optimistic.
I was going to short it until I saw the gap above so I've gone long at 25309 x 1/2 stake.
I was away in the mountains for the last 10 days. last week I had three shorts stopped out for small losses. Then at midnight just after the Nikkei open I shorted the top of the spike up (Dow futures) and got a x1 short position at 25371. That was doing well initially (I wasn't watching it) but got stopped out yesterday at 25410.
So today I'll join the bulls for bit. Stop at 25288.
JTT, yes it seems the Chinese have not been buying US treasuries. Its interesting because it will cause further concern at a time when the Fed looks to offload. I read that China (and other countries) are now looking to avoid USD denominated assets, which goes against weakening the Yuan for exports. If this continues I can see further price drops in bonds for sure. Not surprised to see Gold spike as there is some concern about the inflation data this week and the main reason is the oil price and the effect it will have on US inflation data going forwards.
The Fed is selling and they have a lot to sell. Yields at 2.5% are not so appealing but combined with further rate increases I can see an increase in headwinds and as the yield heads loser to 3% this may prompt a switch from equities to bonds. Now, this is still not on the radar - unless we get a sizeable move up and its also something worth keeping an eye on.
"Those 10-year yields go through 2.6 percent and head towards 3 percent, I think we could have the kind of melt-up we had in 2013, where we had the market go up 30 percent," said Bill Miller, the founder of Miller Value Partners.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 2.53 percent on Tuesday and hit its highest level since March.
Miller is considered one of the best investors ever, after beating the market for 15 years in a row while working at Legg Mason.
" JUBILEE METALS (LSE:JLP) How we laughed, somewhat uncontrollably, seeing the DOW close the session at our target level or as near as dammit. (Out by 1.4 points) The problem was, it cheerfully ignored all other logic during the session ..."
and then we have https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/2/16727238/apple-macos-ios-software-problems-updates which then lead to https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2018/01/08/apple-ios-11-2-5-iphone-battery-life-problems/&refURL=https://www.google.co.uk/&referrer=https://www.google.co.uk/
BUT I believe all Apple products have intel chips, is that right? iphone X sales were a disaster.
Then we have (JTT you may be right) on the 11th US PPI then CPI on the Friday:
JTT, I agree its stick your neck out - but any minor correction is quickly seen as an opportunity. Its just if you look at the whole picture re tech buyers are still steaming in but one bad report and its a situation that will reverse and quickly. There is also the Fed reducing its assets - something that has been completely forgotten and I am pretty sure we will see some curve balls from Russia China re treasuries. Its the bond market that worries me the most, that could go at any time - no warning.
" CHARIOT OIL (LSE:CHAR) & BRENT CRUDE too. We've just about reached our wits end with the DOW, so it was time to sit back and chill while running the numbers against every single DOW constituent. And as a result, we calculated the DOW should ..."
Sure Stu, and in the spirit of goodness and joy and peace and love as the good Old book directs.....WE will no longer call you STU(pid)boy. We will refrain from informing bloggers on here of the limits to your intelligence and the very poor history of your markets calls to date.
We will equally no longer insult your limited personality and we will refrain from calling you out on the stupid calls that you make.
We understand that you have problems and therefore have decided that the best way forward for us is to realise your limits and treat you with this understanding.
Our call for 2018 will be that January will see the top for the year. We do not wish to state this as a forward guidance, we are simply playing along with your child like game so as not to offend you or hurt your feelings.
Please do not follow our assumptions.
" FTSE OUTLOOK (FTSE:UKX) In our first "Friday Smug Git" award for 2018, the FTSE managed a high of 7727 points. Our target was 7726 points. Unfortunately, given the days trading range was only 38 points, it was not the most exciting event but ..."
Just to let you know Mifid2 came in as at Jan 2017 - that is a big deal and yet to be realised by the markets. Tax cuts have not actually happened yet in the USA, so these combined with flat macro data means the additional move up in prices will start to look over extended without further good news. So where people will be looking at the data for confirmation - it may not come (yet) might not be until the second half of the year. That is all I am saying and if we get a spike in inflation, this could be where the market pauses and reflect.
The market is scared of the inflation data, once that is done then we have the run into earnings. I am pretty sure the reality is we have moved up too quickly, when we see the figures people generally will take profits. why? well seasonally Q4 is strong then Q1 is weak.
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