" FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) The market is really starting to bother us. On Friday, for instance, we'd mentioned our concern of any rise above 7389 fading out half way to target. At precisely two minutes past noon, this actually happened with a ..."
Great article - says it how it is now. so, flat productivity is now on its grind higher again. But why?
There were key statements in Trumps speech on his return from Asia which no doubt will boost US defense companies. Mass US arms sales to their allies in Asia and now in Europe. A deal with China to share Asia and to deal with the rebels of this world (Russia, etc.). In fact, I believe Trump has Russia now in his sites and I really do not buy all this spin. It has boosted military spending on a world scale we have not seen since WW2.
Now lets park that idea that the global economy grew due to military spending for a moment. I have been saying this for a couple of years but it was slow to progress at the start. Now we have the men to do the job and spur global productivity rises again.
I want to hear peoples comments before I tell you the absolute downside, which I am sure some will already know.
Think the big fall is still on the cards for early next week.
If you look at the DOW since 22 October, it has been tracing out a possible H&S with the neckline at about 23200. If that breaks, it would target a bottom of approx. 22800-22900 which aligns with a rising trendline from Trump's election (9 Nov 2016) that also touched again early Sept 2017.
Looking at the price action from Friday, we might see a pullback early Monday but then (I think) a push down from there.
Lesson learnt!! I had squeezed the stop to near break even (+ 2 pts) before logging off! My limit was too high, market came down and stopped me out. Sad...
Anyway learnt a lesson to set a practical limit.
House voted to pass the bill. The Senate is next just after thanksgiving. The Senate will be much harder to pass and it could receive amendments to then be sent back to the Representatives for their consideration.
In short, the bill could go back and forth for some time.
The big news is the fact that the poor will be getting more tax and the rich will be taxed less. Because the bill has been cut to pieces already it will be very hard to justify. It will get dogged down to then be forced to increase spending to an unacceptable level.
" FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) There are times when we wish it was permissible to shrug our shoulders and admit we just don't know what's happening. The FTSE has spent the last week making some truly mysterious moves which "should" have seen the ..."
Republicans in the House of Representatives were expected to take up their bill to cut federal tax rates on corporations, small businesses and individuals after an 11:30 a.m. (1630 GMT) meeting with President Donald Trump, who wants to sign a tax package into law before year end.
U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan told Fox News early on Thursday he was confident his chamber had the votes to pass their version of the plan. A vote was expected early on Thursday afternoon.
Its 12.55 at the moment so they are in now discussing the bill. This is why we saw the relief rally.
" BOOKER PLC (LSE:BOK) Back in the time of the dinosaurs, when buying wholesale supplies at Booker there were repeated attempts to play at limericks. After all, it never required genius to find a word to rhyme with Booker and kick off the ..."
Historical trends are a good reminder on trading assessment. So this 2nd (full) week in Nov is a weak period ( and it shows ) followed by an uptrend next week only to fall back towards the end of Nov.
Then for the uptrend for the Dec rally.
The bigger the fall in Nov end the better the rally in Dec. Only a trend though!
I am not a Elliott theory man ( too complex and subjective in assessment) . I just look at 1 hr and 4 hr candles and make an assessment ( not always certainty of course), 1 hr candles should be avoided for placing a bet . 4hr candles are more definitive as they show intermittent spikes which takes out our stops.Or to put it another way stops should be placed on 4 hr candles if you wish to do so..
It's all in the mind with luck behind as nothing is certain in gambling.
DOW is weak as it goes into the data. If the data is on or below expectations it will mean that even if the Fed does raise in December there would be good enough reason to hold until Q2 before deciding the next move. NOW THAT WOULD BE BULLISH.
Its just how the market will react to the tax news and what is actually going on here. That could stop any further move higher.
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