There we have the answer. If it does get to the top I will be selling it again! My high today is 23511. I suspect the 10SMA may be a challenge but looking at the price action its a decent reversal so far.
Looks like the market still likes 23334/5. Lets see if it can hold at the start. The market is now zoning into PPI and CPI for this week, starting with PPI tomorrow. I think this will give some relief, providing we do not get any more news about tax cuts or the yields on bonds.
This has been in a range between 7300 and 7550/7600 since May/June. (aside from a solitary bear trap break below).
patient traders would be waiting for 7300 to go long, with a stop below 7200, and add 2nd position if we see 7200......
7550 area would be the place to short....with very tight stops, no higher than 7610 imho...
a close above 7600 would open up 8000.
I think the ftse is quite easy to profit from if you have patience, discipline and a decent strategy.
Mine would be based on the above numbers, i stopped trading indiices for a while, but if i was trading the ftse using just these numbers and that chart for the last 6 months....i think i would have done ok.... its nice and simple , and the simple techniques work the best .....
i'm getting back into indices(for now)....short atm, lets see....
" FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The market at present worries us quite a lot. Many shares are just 'hanging' neither showing convincing up nor down moves. As mentioned previously, several commodities are presenting similar hesitation. Generally ..."
No guarantee it will get to 7480 as the bias is to the downside for the FTSE so if it does get up that high, I would close all longs and go short. Just my opinion though. I am long at the moment as the EWT 'pattern' suggests a small rise to that 7480 area before a big fall. I will definitely be going short at some point on Monday as being long is risky.
As for it just being a temporary correction to the downside, again, just my opinion, but I think this is going down to 6800-6900 in first half of December.
Looking at what we have seen so far of the decline from 7590 last week, I would have a first major 'down' target in the 7280-7320 area.
Thanks for the EW. I'll work through it over the weekend. I also want to go back over Burford's various FTSE blogs.
I usually post on the AFE board (AFE as a company is defunct, so board is otherwise unused). Mix of TA and fundamental analysis on a range of equities/indices. onedb1 and a number of others also post there. Everyone's welcome particularly with good TA ideas.
Thanks, Pen. I will look at your charts more closely a bit later.
For what it's worth, here is my take on the FTSE from the EWT perspective:
We had a first wave down from about 7590 to 7484 (about 106 in length). I reckon that the third wave has completed (but waiting confirmation) from 7540 to 7437 (about 103 in length so conforms to EWT 'rules').
I think it is tracing out a fourth wave which has the potential to finish at about 7480 but we will have to see about that.
So that would leave the fifth wave and, given waves 1 and 3 are equal, wave 5 should extend so I'd be expecting a biggie of, maybe 160+ points, so could be looking at finishing close to 7320 ish at some point next week.
And then the BIG question: is that 5 wave sequence the first of three? If there are going to be two more, I would expect the FTSE to get down to 6800-6900 based on what I have seen so far
15 min - double top and then lower highs/lows with small flag continuation patterns - both 50/200sma falling - bearish
60 min - below 50/200sma which are now falling - bearish
240 min - break below September uptrend (pink line) - below a falling 50sma - cluster support from 38.2 Fib, October low and 200sma in the 7420-40 area - bullish if this support holds
Daily - attempts to break above around 7580 since May have failed giving a triple top like topping pattern - MAs are whipsawing above/below the index - looks like a Weinstein topping stage 3 - bearish divergence on RSI/MACD/MACD-H
all 3 showing bearish rsi divergence combined with other top forming (short term consolidation p/b)
The p/b should be limited, max around 1500/2000 points on dow, before xmas rally back up imvho....
All three indices are now doing lower lows, a clear warning sign for bulls imho.
For ftse a close below 7480 and 7450 should see a acceleration in the selling.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.