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2009-11-06 17:05
WEEKAHEAD-The view from Reuters editors in EMEA |
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LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Following is the view from Reuters editors in Europe, the Middle East and Africa on the news that is likely to matter most for the week ahead starting Nov 7. -- C BANKERS & ECOFIN - G20 follow-up in Europe -- KRAFT/CADBURY - Deadline for bid -- BANKS Q3 - HSBC, Barclays results -- EUROPEAN Q3 GDPs - Key to ECB's next move -- GOLD - New heights eyed and industrial metals follow -- REUTERS HEALTH SUMMIT - Top industry execs meet in NYC -- OIC SUMMIT - Ahmadinejad, Karzai, Bashir, Assad expected -- RUSSIA STATE OF THE NATION - New initiatives from Medvedev? -- CLIMATE - UN deal deadline looks doomed -- END OF THE WALL - World leaders fete 20th anniversary C BANKERS & ECOFIN Hot on the heels of the G20 we have the Global Economy Meeting of central bankers in Basel on Sunday/Monday, with doorstepping on Sunday a news conference led by ECB chief Trichet on Monday. Euro group and ECOFIN meetings of finance ministers on Monday/Tuesday will also focus on the outcome of the G20 and the European Commission's recent major growth and deficit forecasts. Greece will probably emerge as the bad boy of Europe again. (andrew.torchia@reuters.com)
KRAFT/CADBURY With the put up or shut up deadline set for Monday at 1700 GMT, we are on alert from for any whiff of an announcement from Kraft and any sign of an 11th hour competing bid. Part of any offer will be valuation with analysts now uncertain whether Cadbury would fetch more than 8 pounds a share (chris.wickham@reuters.com)
Q3 BANK RESULTS HSBC, Barclays, Unicredit, and Credit Agricole - underlying investment bank performance in focus after weak RBS showing. Bonuses and asset sales still hot themes and geographical exposure - HSBC to Asia, Unicredit to eastern and central Europe. (chris.wickham@reuters.com)
Q3 GDP Flash euro zone Q3 GDP data (preceded by German and French releases) will help shape expectations of when the ECB will begin to withdraw excess liquidity. Expected to be relatively strong (about 2 pct annualised or 0.5 pct q/q). Also expected to be a better reflection of improving PMIs than UK GDP was. Such considerations are key drivers of euro/sterling and the gilt/Bund spread which has widened to close to its year highest. All the more so given the BOE Inflation Report next week will show the UK central bank's view on the mid-term inflation outlook, the basis on which it decided to expand its QE programme, and just how long it expects the economy to require its support.
(andrew.torchia@reuters.com) MORE FROM GOLD? Markets still gunning for record highs, this time with the added impetus of Central Banks in emerging Asian and Central American markets becoming possible buyers of the precious metal. Not to be outdone, industrial metals including platinum, palladium and rhodium are vying for new multi-month highs spurred on by hopes of a nascent recovery in the auto sector. (barbara.lewis@reuters.com)
REUTERS HEALTH SUMMIT A dozen Reuters reporters cover speakers from the leading healthcare companies, including Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, plus top insurers and the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration - Nov 9-12. (chris.wickham@reuters.com) AHMADINEJAD, KARZAI, BASHIR, ASSAD AT OIC SUMMIT Organization of the Islamic Conference summit in Istanbul sees heads of state and government arrive Nov 8 and get down to business Nov 9. Event likely to be overshadowed by the presence of Iran's Ahmadinejad and Sudan's Bashir. Syria's Assad, Palestinian PM Fayyad, Yemen's President Saleh as well as heads of state of Qatar, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh and Jordan will also attend. Saudi Arabia's delegation will be headed by the foreign minister. The summit is billed as an economic and commercial summit of the OIC, but obviously the story will focus on Ahmadinejad/Iran/West, Bashir/ICC/Darfur, Saleh/Yemen/relations with Saudi and instability, Palestinian/Arab peace process with Israel. (janet.mcbride@reuters.com)
RUSSIA STATE OF THE NATION President Dmitry Medvedev will give annual state of nation address on November 11 or 12 (12 more likely). He may use the annual setpiece to announce new measures but more likely to highlight the extent to which true power lies with Vladimir Putin.
(janet.mcbride@reuters.com)
CLIMATE After Barcelona talks delivered zero progress towards a legally binding deal, it is likely the most we can expect from Copenhagen is a politically binding deal and as much as year to to sort out the legal niceties. World leaders will attend the Dec talks to try to add impetus. See the Road to Copenhagen Take-a-Look. (janet.mcbride@reuters.com)
END OF THE WALL Clinton, Medvedev, Sarkozy and Brown among the many who will join Merkel on Monday evening to commemorate 20 years since the opening of the Berlin Wall. France holds its own Berlin Wall celebrations on Monday evening with a party in the central Place de la Concorde. Then on Nov. 11, for the first time, a German chancellor has been invited to WW1 armistice day celebrations at the Arc de Triomphe, in a sign the French are seeking to revitalise their ties with Germany, hoping that together they can dominate the European Union post Lisbon. (janet.mcbride@reuters.com)
ECONOMIC DATA
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9 0700 - German exports Sep 0730 - Bank of France economic survey 0930 - Euro zone sentix survey 1100 - German industrial production TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10 0001 - UK BRC retail sales Oct 0700 - German CPI, final Oct 0745 - French industrial production, Sep 0750 - French industrial investment, 12 months 0900 - Italy industrial production, Sep 0930 - UK trade, Sep 1000 - German ZEW investor survey, forecast 55 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11 0930 - UK average earnings 3m yy, Sep 0930 - UK jobless, Oct THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12 0700 - German wholesale prices 0745 - French current account, Sep 1000 - Swiss ZEW investor survey, Nov 1000 - Euro zone industrial production, Sep FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13 0700 - German Q3 GDP flash estimate, fcast 0.8 pct 0740 - French inflation final, Oct 0745 - French payroll Q3 0750 - French Q3 GDP flash estimate 0815 - Swiss PPI. Oct 0900 - Italy Q3 GDP flash estimate 1000 - Euro zone Q3 GDP flash estimate
TAKE-A-LOOK-Five world markets themes next week
(Editing by Jason Neely)
(jason.neely@thomsonreuters.com; RM: jason.neely.reuters.com@reuters.net; +44 207 542 8825)
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