Just watched the video of the interview.
Quite a conservative assessment of the next 2 years.
Malcy reminded him that he does not want to sell the company.
N Sands and CPO-5 Chairman was bullish about.
All good stuff.
The chairman looks a little dull and despondent. Why?
My conclusion is that Colummbian government has cracked down on the production of Columbian Marching Powder and Giles realises not just the oil price has increased exponentially.
I have bought a lot of AMER this week. The PoO fell back from $70 resistance (Brent) and tonight it looks to starting to rise. The PoO is still significantly higher than it was so its definitely worth more based on current production.
I have not sold any. My highest priced entry is 21.1p.
I do have some T20 positions that I will need to cover but I have options of selling other positions and retaining the T20s.
My view is that a lot of oil shares were down yesterday and this morning. There looks to be a recovery in the PoO which may need confirmation.
I am not day trading this company.
Overall my positions are in profit but I want a substantial profit.
Don't panic over minor fluctuations and have faith in your informed investment decisions.
Budget $45 oil and now $65....
Cost to get Plat oil out to export $16 per barrel
Making $49 per barrel vers $29 budgeted.
Targetting 12,000 bopd and 20,000 bopd medium term....
3 drills in Plat this year that could double Plat resources (currently 1480m bo)....N Sands - looks like Plat 9 and 12 are the bigger opportunities. Focus is to drive oil through the OBA, not take on 3rd party oil in the medium term unless the Equador side of the main pipeline.
Plans are in place to upgrade with a new pumping station in Chiritza which will support greater production.
Mariposa being circled as a fantastic resource and the industry is interested in it! We will wait for the 2nd well to be drilled (A lot of people interested to see the results of Llanos34 Indigo Well). May consider selling if that is as good as Mariposa 1....
Potential for dividends in 2019.....if current financial performance continues. No debt, all wells self funding ($5m per drill)
I will be putting more in here when funds are available!
GL all - more than happy to hold for the foreseeable!
Elena...reserve upgrades add value and in AMER's case I think it would add masses of value at the current sp.
Mariposa reserves upgrade will be very interesting to see, and if as some suggest we can double/treble reserves we will get a uplift. Platinillo reserves are dwindling, as they stand. However they have enough drills over the next 18 months to unlock new areas of this basin currently unexplored...they are I think going to find more reserves in plat...but they have lots of new areas bought in the fire sale which could be massive!
I don't think the company will be here in 2-3 years to get the benefit of realising these targets...I am sure AMER will be bought out...
I am accumulating as this is due a estate soon enough....
But its the production and the PoO that are driving the SP upwards.
My late father had Gold Mines of Sardinia share certificates. I helped him convert to online trading and took an interest in several of the companies including this one.
To be honest we thought this one had a bit of a dodgy background. But it interested me enough to buy a few and sell a few.
The SP is definitely being supressed but that makes a great time to buy. I may try to buy some more this week. I bought this morning and already in a small profit.
The likelihood is that reserves will increase significantly (double and more) through CPO-5.
Mariposa has exceeded expectations and as Loto was described as useful "bolt on" production, that may well be added.
Indico 1 is to the south, in the direction of Sol 1 and Sol 1 itself is expected to exceed Mariposa by a factor of 25.
Additionally, with an API of 40, these reserves are more valuable.
Time will tell, but I wholly disagree with the view that this does not carry the "for sale" sign.
It is the way this BOD work strategically: build the company up and sell someone else the dream of milking the cash cow.
Timing is looking impeccable.
Excellent increase of assets, increasing in value by the day as the understanding of the geology improves and mundane and time consuming issues such as environmental licences are sorted out.
CPO-5 the star of the show and extrapolated to illustrate the potential of the whole portfolio.
South America and Colombia in particular now seen as the right address and both majors and chancers all looking to compete: the list of potential suitors is quite long, including our own JV partners and adjacent neighbors.
If the dice roll, the next Agm may well be the last opportunity to throw rotten eggs at our clever (and much hated) BOD.
I don't like takeover talk. The likely time to take this company over has passed (in my opinion).
AMER are producing and have plans to triple production in the medium term.
That together with a rising PoO make this likely to achieve 200 or 300p pence a share within 3 or 4 years. That will be a good return even for those holders who bought around 60p.
If AMER get bought out it will either be because they have again missed production targets or the BoD get lazy and wish to offload and retire.
I would be looking for 200p a share if they did sell up.
If on the other hand they keep the company public and continue to grow it and pass the company onto some younger Directors I would be happy to hold and receive dividends.
I think AMER has a large PI holding and I don't think there are any financial pressures to force the BoD to sell up prematurely.
The BoD would be well to remember that long suffering PIs would not mind if most of them went missing in the Columbian or Peruvian Jungles!
If they execute the medium term programme correctly we should be looking at 20,000 bopd.
I think that is a conservative figure which they have made to give a high probability of success.
Elena, you're right, and to sum up all you have said is that AMER is a highly likely target for some large oiler. It's becoming (has become) a cash cow.
Rex Harbour aside the short term upside here must be a God given!
But then 'What the f*** do I (and other PI's) know!
at $45 per barrel oil they had netbacks of $30. Now there is $64 per barrel oil that increases the profit immensely.
They also have a technical capacity of 55,000bopd. I think that willtake them a long time but even at 15,000 bopd this company would be a very valuable one.
I like the fact it is debt free. I don't like Banks or Brokers and they have little influence here.
I like this bit too.
" Focus is to increase production to 20,000 BOPD in the medium term"
Its a buy and at current SP its a steal. I will buy more all the way to 35p which may not be very long.
I have known about this company a long time. My late father invested in "Gold Mines of Sardinia" which was the former company which acquired Chaco Resources.
Its consistently let investors down, but they have achieved debt free production that makes money at $25 per barrel.
So the greedy bankers and brokers and Hedge Funds can't get the company over a barrel.
I have been a major critic here and a holder on a number of occasions including the past 2 years and in and out over the years.
But the time is right to invest here now. Its worth more purely on the basis of current production and assets.
To be fair, Malcolm Graham-Wood does make the point that his bucket list should be taken as a whole rather than trying to pick out shares that might do particularly well, and over the years he has been very successful, with some choises less so.
Still below my Nov slice i see.
Attention drawn by Malcy .. noticed i have 10 from his 13 bucket list. !!
( Just found time to hear first 6 min of review ) lol .. my time, and you only have so many days.
He appeared very keen on this one.
PoO will bobble around as traders do their stuf but it's the average price over the year that matters most to AMER and others.
If PoO average around $60pb to $65pb or better for 2018, then AMER is going to be creaming it in.
Sp should be 26p minimum based on 7kbopd and PoO in the $60's.
I would hope that any upcoming news on Mariposa-1 test well moving from 3kbopd up to 4kbopd or better still at 4500bopd will see mid 20's to high 20's rerating. Production will be circa 7500bopd based on Mariposa-1 increases and assuming core production remains the same of course.
Bargain at the moment. But in fairness PoO has been unpredictable so market being overly cautious. Nothing new there then! There will come a time when the market takes a bullish stance instead of a bearish one.
I'm not a geologist but know it will take a few drills before CPO-5 can be properly priced.
ONGC are gathering data from Mariposa-1 at present and they'll know (probably by now) what they are looking to find/test with the second drill/ well planned for this year. I've indicated a target price for 2018 on TheShareHub website of 65p. That's fairly modest on a buyout scenario but it's certainly a starting point for a bids.
Lets not get too ahead of ourselves as very much early doors on CPO-5 and EWT still very much in its infancy.
Certainly plenty to look forward to on several ops fronts for AMER holders.
What's your view on on a likely bid? Would you not have thought they would offer sooner to buy at a snip? I guess the it's have their price. Can't understand why the it's would sell down to 16p unless they want the bod to hold on to the company...
I think it's fair to say that CPO-5 is potentially the flagship licence out of the entire folio.
Lets face it, it's taken AMER almost 2 years to get production up by around 3000bopd to 6100bopd via existing folio and yet Mariposa-1 test well looks on track to deliver 4500bopd with 1400bopd NET to AMER. Assuming ONGC are happy with the well performance, then I would not be surprised to see them drill a second well pretty soon - possibly as early as Q2 weather permitting.
CPO-5 resources potentially dwarf AMER's current folio. Yes - there are some nice targets being lined up in addition to CPO-5, but near term, the latter could end up netting AMER 100mmboe+ in reserves. It's going to take more than just 2 drills to firm those numbers up and I doubt ONGC will be keen to enhance AMER's 30% stake to the level that makes it harder for them to acquire it. Hence my comment on M&A. I genuinely think AMER will not be around in 2019 if all goes well with CPO-5. ONGC have deep pockets and will happily take AMER out lock stock and barrel for XX a share if it means they get CPO-5 all to themselves.
Finally, I get the distinct feeling that John, Giles and team are getting long in the tooth and may not have the stomach for another year of shareholders nipping at their self awarding bonus heals.
Watch for signs of new bonus share incentives / options being pen'd by the apparently independent remuneration committee!
Hub- I think you are right about m&a...and perhaps that is part of the issue here. It may be that the bod want to sell but only when the so is. in the right region. Perhaps some it's don't want the sale and are holding it back? Would that ever make any sense??? I know Malcy is all over thus share and may have more to say after tomorrow.....
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