In today's pre-close trading update, Chris Meredith, CEO, talks of strong organic growth and FY results to be published in March that will meet market expectations. "The company is well positioned", he confirmed, "to continue on its growth trajectory."
Inevitably, some profit taking today ("Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact") but very likely that the upward trend will continue, perhaps given some impetus by a Santa rally and by end of year predictions about SP highs in 2018 (£4.00? £4.50?). Any take out bid would, in my view, have to be somewhere within touching distance of £5.00.
A happy Christmas to all fellow travellers and a healthy and prosperous New Year.
Freedom - Thanks for all your advice. I have been involved in the
market probable longer than you are old. I can take a loss I can
take a gain. What I cannot take is patronizing preaching by punters
who are in it for a quick buck. Over and out.
p.s. Your chance of getting in on the cheap here is evaporating
WS, this will be my ONLY reply regarding IQE here, because this isnt really the place..
* you seem to have misunderstood the company, sold out early and taken it badly. Just get over it and move on. Lifes too short.
* as I have explained many times, shares in growth companies are priced according to future expectations. The current PE is of limited relevance when the market expectations are for transformational growth in the short/medium term (also true for negative outlooks too)
* as I have explained many times, all mature discussion is welcome, positive or negative, however you have made a hobby out of ignoring everything and just talking IQE down. You only make yourself look bad with behaviour like that, not the company youre denigrating.
* as I have explained many times, The issue isnt the quality or size of the products IQE can supply. It is that IQE and its competitors will be unable to meet the coming demand for the VCSEL wafers, but IQE is best placed. More importantly IQE is the only credible source for volume supply of many other compound semiconductor wafers products, for which there is significant evidence of massive coming demand.
See Dave Sweeneys most recent posts on the IQE discussion board if you care to actually know about IQE.
Beyond that, I will promise never to utter another word about IQE or past disagreements on this B.B. if you make the same promise.
Freedom35 - The opportunity you seek may yet arise. Good luck.
My de-ramping at IQE was/is to expose possible negatives, the
risk of getting carried away is seriously present there, although
it has to be said that the future does look bright there - but is the
current PE-ration of nearly 60 justified.....time will tell.
I was worried you were going to start deramping this share after seeing my name here ;p
Yes 300 could happen, but I'd hope not because higher lows are always more bullish. As I say, I am eyeing 305 to 310 as the next purchase opportunity, which being watchful for an early resumption of the uptrend.
Freedom35 - Hi, nice to see you here! You are looking at sheer quality, no
better quality than AMS. The share price tends to retrace after a steep rise,
but malways comes back up to generally rise above the last peak, Might see
the retrace go a little further, perhaps even to near 300p Does not worry
me, I have been in AMS since the share price was in the teens.
p.s. My regards to Monty and Sweeney when you speak to them next.
Six months ago there was talk here of the "magic milestone" (300p) which lay ahead, countered by strong speculation that the SP would retreat to the mid or low 200s. I remember projecting that we would reach 300p by the New Year.
The close yesterday afternoon took the SP to an all time high and at a pleasingly round figure of 350p. I'm already happy with the progress made by the SP this year (and by the company itself, needless to say) but I wonder whether the usual Santa rally and FY results will now give an uplift to 375p or better by the New Year. It's a little hard to believe that the SP stood at several pence below 200p back in February of this year.
What a share! What a company! Investment here has over the years more than made up for half a dozen dogs and basket cases.
The market buoyant, good stocks not cheap. Not impossible
for AMS to break through 400p in the relatively near future.
(6-12 months I would say, provided the market remains strong.
I hold very long term, not unduly concerned about short term
ups and downs.
One stock which my view is currently a good stock cheap is
Inspired Energy (INSE). Share price in a dip, but now on the
cusp of a decent rise (due and deserved IMO).
But as always, don't take my word for it, take care, DYOR
I agree with you, W.S. The BoD puts the dividend up every year anyway (though they started from a very low base and I am not pretending that AMS is a cash cow). I share your view that a company with no debt and a strongroom stuffed with cash (probably about to reach 70 million at the end of the current trading year) is always going to impress both for its financial prudence and its ability to move when the right opportunity presents itself. One can be confident, considering past history, that any takeover or merger of any sort will have been carefully checked and judged to be the best catch (many others having been measured and weighed up but then quietly thrown back).
Some of the cash pile could be put to paying higher dividends.
Apart from that, I for one am happy to be invested in a company
that has plenty cash in the bank. I hate expansion for the sake
of using up the cash, e.g. buying up companies that turn out to
be no good.
If the SP holds above 300p for a day or two, then I would expect that it may well return to test previous highs, having now re-crossed both the 26 day and 50 day moving averages. We are also now more than three months into H2 with promises from the CEO of another strong performance.
Share price quietly working its way to 300p+ again. PE-ratio
may seem high, but where to find a sounder outfit than AMS!
P.S.To my friends here: I am currently rather optimistic about
energy-storage company Redt Energy (RED), the potential
looks exciting, and the share price is currently moving north,
but please don't take my word for it, DYOR.
AMS beats expectations.........With margins ticking up by more than 2 % points to 59.9%, analysts are bullish on the profit outlook. Broker Numis has forecast pre-tax profit of £28m, giving EPS of 14.8p for the year to December 2017.......an increased £4.4m in working capital and £2.3m of investment sent operating cash flows before exceptional items down slightly to £9.1m.
Despite the share price momentum in the last year, AMS trades on a cash- adjusted forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times-below average in the expensive medical devices sector.
Given the strong forecast profit growth, we reiterate our BUY call.
They picked up 7% of the shares through their purchase of Hargreave Hale.
'This disclosable event is as a result of the acquisition of Hargreave Hale Limited by Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., through its wholly-owned subsidiary Canaccord Genuity Wealth Group Holdings (Jersey) Limited.'
Doesn't mean, unfortunately that they intend to keep their new holding, as they had only 1% beforehand.
I suspect that AMS and the rest of the general market will drift in the short term.
FTSE 100's back to where it was at the start of the year.
So, Canaccord thinks it is worth picking up 7% of the shares. That should inspire some confidence in those who think AMS has gone too far, too fast. No doubt the recent retracement presented too good an opportunity to miss, as a return to the high of 325p will mean a 14% return on the prevailing price on the date of purchase (18th September). But Canaccord may well stay on board for the longer term in the expectation of bigger and better returns. After all, the interims promise continued organic growth and some new products in the mix. The heady PE ratio that worries some posters here should be seen in the context of continued growth in revenue/profits and, of course, cash in hand of 55 million (which may well reach 70 million by the end of H2 in three months time). What's not to like?
Can't say I disagree with the Canaccord timing, though my own strategy for adding to my holding has been to watch for the rare retreat by the SP into territory that lies below the 200 day moving average.
Games - You have a point, but I still would feel safer with AMS than
any other high PE-rated stock. Having said that, there is a crude
saying in the general trade which is: "If the brothel goes on fire
even the pretty girls burn".
I feel good with AMS, would not want to be without my little stake.
Nothing is entirely safe, indeed it could be said that money in the
Bank is the most dangerous place of all, as the cash is guaranteed
to be worth a good deal less in time to come.
winning -- I guess the difficulty here is a lot of future growth is baked into the price.
A P/E of 32 and a growth rate of 10% is quite pricey.
The thing that could hit AMS is not the strength of the business, which seems conistently very good, it's an overall market re-rating.
If that happens, nothing will escape it.
I recently sold Abcam because I think the next 5 years growth is already priced in.
These are are brilliant companies but have been re-rated up very highly in the last years.
I also have Renishaw and that has risen 179% while I've been holding it in 2 years.
One gets the feeling that all this has gone too far, and too fast -- just like the UK housing market in the last 10 years -- everyone thinks it's a one way bet and they can never lose.
I think there was a shock today when from August-September the average price drop in London was £18,000 in one month and £300,000 drop in Kensington and Chelsea.
Often the share price here falls back somewhat after Results, often the
shire price recovers (indeed more than recovers) soon after.
PE-ratio is high, but AMS deserves a high PE-ratio. Not many sounder
or better Companies to be found in the market.
If the share price falls a bit further in the next day or two, then I reckon
the turning point will be 280p.
Gamesinvestor - Pretty good assessment, I already had come to much
the same conclusion. Although I remember from previous statements
that part of the input costs are in Euros and/or Dollars, so that would add
to the cost of production/sales, which would make the underlying profit
growth (outwith currency benefit) stronger than your estimate.
And look at the cash pile in the bank, wow!
23Jez - I am not a chart kind of man. I focus on what the Company
does, and invest accordingly. But generally speaking I do think it
correct to say that AMS's share price tends to come down a bit at
near Results, before or after. Should not worry long term holders.
P.S. You may have read my negative comments at IQE, I have not
changed my mind, I fear small shareholders are carried along by
two overwhelming messengers, who have their own large interest at
heart. In my view, IQE makes wafers, a commodity product on which
there is no patent, anyone can make the wafers, the machines for
that can be bought by anyone. For 'anyone' read Companies
operating in that field. Time will tell whether I am wrong or correct
Just been looking on the message board not done so for a while.
I have to support others who disagree with you.
I tried to copy the iii chart but clearly have forgotten how to do so and do not have time to find another comparable one at the moment (going to the hair dresser).
If you click on the chart tab and then on chart you will get the chart page; from settings use a 3 year time frame and 20day and 50day moving averages. then click plot
You will see that within that time frame the only time it has drifted down wards is the last quarter of 2016 and for a week approx in early January 2017. I sold before the bottom and bought back when it moved back again after it was back above the 20 day moving average. Made 20% profit. I am an investor not a trader so I do not usually do this.
However as a retired doctor I think
a) there is a huge and expanding market for their products for reasons of an aging population and most importantly they work
b) the market will continue to expand for the increasing large subgroup with diabetes and obesity often self inflicted as many in the subgroup have not looked after their health, smoking diet exercise etc and it is not possible to entirely mitigate the adverse consequences of this neglect in old age, particularly intractable lower leg ulcers
c)their products amongst other things can give pain relief and promote healing, and outcomes vary from total healing to substantial improvement.
It is a bit like IQE; the above exampleonly refers to a part of their product range and some applications. Furthermore because approval of medical products is rigorous and time consuming, if they ever are in trouble we are likely to receive good advance warning.
I use TA signals as my main warning signals for timing both buys and sells. However you must use your own research as in my opinion no system is infallible or providescast ironclad protection against falling knives.
As always the above is my opinion and the usual health warning DYOR applies.
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