You might be right, you might be wrong. Markets are certainly
overvalued, a retrace is due, when it comes it may indeed be a
sharp one, but then again it may not amount to much.
The problem with selling up is to subsequently decide when to
go back in. APH should be a resilient one but, as you say, even
the good ones can take a tumble in a market downturn.
We have seen a very strong rise to 70p at APH, this may result in
profit taking without there being a market downturn. I expect
a small retrace happening to perhaps 65p, but then again the
overall interest in APH is unlikely to diminish, therefore a
subsequent leg up (after the retrace) to region 80p region may
still be on the cards for this year.
Over the last week or so I get the feeling that markets are looking to retrace.
Good companies look overvalued and poor companies are starting to look overvalued too.
I sold my entire portfolio on Tuesday, winners and losers, at an overall profit.
Alliance was one of the biggest winners and it was with a slightly heavy heart that I hit the sell button. If any of my holdings could weather a retrace I would put my money on Alliance. However, I suspect it will be a sharp retrace that will hit everything regardless of quality. When panic sets in anything can happen.
What do you think, have I got off the bus too soon?
Share price now above 70p, I am pleased but not surprised
to see that. APH is the largest holding in my portfolio. I feel
safe with APH, as the demand for medicines (niche or
otherwise) is unlikely to diminish.
P.S. Off-topic / might I suggest a look at LPA, good figures there
this morning. But as always DYOR.
Actually invested in this and Tyratech and think this is a good move for both. Vamousse is a strong differentiated product in this segment, with USPs that will appeal to parents and a good presence already in UK grocers and in the big chains in the US. Good foundation for Alliance to build on.
Seems a reasonable acquisition, hopefully our reach can boost sales.
Have to admit I had never heard of Vamousse, but having never having head lice (as far as I know) why would I?
Still under the radar
APH is now the largest holding in my portfolio. In the frothy bull market we
are in, I feel comfortable with this not-overrated, calmly behaved steady
I have also a decent stake in INSE where for me much the same applies
(undervalued IMO) plus I can see a decent rise in the offing there,
imminent I would say. But as always DYOR.
Agree entirely ws,
Has everything I look for in a company, have to admit I followed them after seeing the naked trader was buying in post eu referendum.
It's one of those that seemed too good to be true, I looked and looked and looked but couldn't see any chinks in the armour. The only ? was the slightly high debt following the Sinclair acquisition, that is now under control.
Very happy with my purchase and think this has years of growth yet. Only regret is I didn't buy more when we were sub 50p!
H1 Results show steady sales progress and excellent cash flow.
I do like APH's no-nonsense accounts, no sneaky hidden things, all
facts honest & plain for all to see.
I hold APH long term (dividends beat bank interest, and there is
near constant sensible growth.
Share Crazy - Have a look at OPG Power (OPG), should I prove to
be correct in my views/comments there, then a substantial can't be too
far away there. But as always take care and DYOR.]
As for APH, I reckon we'll see 55p+ there in the not too distant future,
not a race horse, just a quiet docile work horse.
In the stocks & sh\ares investment world, no one sails along without mistakes.
I consider it a mistake to be selling APH. When the market takes a tumble
(which could happen any day) then established healthcare stocks like APH
are likely to suffer least. In my view, APH is a steady ship to sail on.
Games - The diclectiin issue is disappointing but by no means
disastrous. The share price need not go down as much as it has,
I reckon that we'll see a bottom at around 49p and then a
gradual rise again to region 52+. After all, the company's profits
are rising nicely without diclectin and the Dividend is good and
also rising nicely.
In recent days two big sellers have sold. Today's news it seems wasn't too detrimental according to the company. There wasn't volume to the sell off. If it moves below the 100 day moving average I will consider a short to hedge my long. What do you think?
Winning -- I'll take a look and it certainly seems to have some good history, however, I'm not usually a big fan of consulting companies as they tend to be expensive people wise, high operationally, especially when business turns south.
The only investment made since dropping AZN-GSK and Rathbones is OPG Power Ventures -- not a huge position and it's a strange choice for me, it being coal oreintated (moving into solar) but the fundamentals look good and it's incredibly undervalued if not a tad heavy ion debt.
It's highlighted by the Slater Growth Fund. -- see OPG board.
Games - After your sales of AZN and GSK you will have cash-funds to invest,
have a look at INSE for great growth potential as well a good dividends, as
well as, in my view, being jolly sound and quite safe.
well it looks a little safer than Astra and GSK this morning -- I'm glad to be out of both with a good profit and hopefully away from a substantial big downside if AZN's new drug doesn't work -- it's ominous that Sorryhat is leaving, if true, at a time when it should be imminent glory.
Perhaps he sees it failing and he'll then look like a chump for turning down the Pfizer deal.
Selling GSK for me was more to do with the declining ROCE over 5 years and the fact that the full effect of the recent off patent big drugs have still to take effect whilst new stuff is going to find it hard to be sufficient in terms of replacement business.
Games - This is not an exciting EPS-growth company, i.e. not a race horse
but a steady work horse. I think the shares price is nonetheless too low,
should be be trading well above 55p, I would say 60p no less. There is a
very useful dividend, which is growing year by year. I consider my investment
here safe, safe from economic downturns / global market upheavals.
Games - Interesting report by Hardman, thanks. The share price, off-late, hovers
between 51p and 53p. I wouldn't read too much into a one day's fall, as often the
Buy price of the previous day is compared (by the computer) with the Sell
price of next morning, that in itself showing rises and falls which do not exist.
Winning -- One thing noted in reading the report is the heavy share dilution in the expansionary phase over the last years.
In 2014 there were 264M shares in Issue and this has risen to 473M to this year. The net effect is that the earnings per share has not grown at all in the last 3 years.
The projection into 2019 is that this dilution will stop and the underlying EPS should grow significantly.
Any comments on this?
The rest of the report reads well and the prospect of Diclectin becoming up to a £40M contributor, whilst there are risks, don't seem to appear in the share price today.
The ROIC seems modest at sub 10% but it does seem to be consistent.
What's your assessment here - fair value, cheap, or very cheap?
The good news is that the share price has not been affected by
those sales, indeed the share price has gone up. Clearly for
every sale there was a buyer, and when a buyer's holding has
not gone above 3% no declaration needs to be made.
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