Sometimes you just have to be patient. Nearly sold a few times but kept reminding myself why I bought in the first place and had anything materially changed.
Fantastic update today with a £2.1m+ improvement in debt and operating in areas with dire need for increased spending as well as a general move towards modular construction which was my main reason for buying in the first place.
I hear you both clearly HBP and Disorder. This has been my longest ever holding - 6 years - and has, in fairness, been a journey but I think/hope it's finally turning a big corner - although I have said that before etc :-) - and if yes the s/p can readily rerate much higher than 12p imho... DYOR of course
(I mark as weak buy as I have been wrong here before and it has had a decent jump this morning too.. but on a scheme of things - eg versus Market Cap - it's far from a big jump imho.. and to put my money where my mouth is I topped up this morning and would do same again every 2p this goes up.. to 20p at least... )
Pre open... up 23% suggests to me that this is way under valued now on a forward pricing basis. There is clearly support for the product from a lot of angles and I would suggest that we could be in for a big bounce sooner or later.
momentum is steadily gathering here imho.. but the share price yet to react to this so I expect it will rally at least decently and hopefully nicely/very nicely in 2018, and indeed more nicely again in 2019.
Generally, this is very illiquid stock and that brings its own complications eg it can go up or down meaningfully on little buying or selling. I see a meaningful buyer happening a lot more than a meaningful seller in current environment , so I'm liking this stock more and more .. but of course any meaningful selling with no buying in parellel would readily see punchy falls .. so of course DYOR
ASH was such a long time hold for me... (Years and years), I always knew it would come good.
Late last year I had to make a decision (Self imposed) and I moved all my cash into one stock...
2 weeks later, ASH announces the news which propelled it northwards... Fantastic...
I will buy back in.... But as mentioned here, I think it will likely bounce around this new range 12p - 15p for a while.
The minute news comes and we start seeing figures from F1, then it could and should fly..
I have started grabbing a few "risky" stocks for fun punting.
When I say risky, what I mean is, they are never going to be dividend paying monsters..
But this one I firmly believe offers a very real and quick opportunity for 100% gain.
Its suffered because of recent profit warning, and was marked down on effectively very little trade volume.
FISH (Fishing Republic).
We all know angling is the largest participating sport in the UK, and FISH have suffered because of the aggressive marketing campaigns of late. However Angling Direct is acquiring outlets and it could effectively swallow up FISH with a gulp.
I believe that even at 100% increase, then FISH would be being punished for its failings of late.
very magnamous of you to say that disorder and fair play.. i've held it for maybe 5 and have stuck with it and am now at last hopefully going to get some good reward.. there are very few of these share in 'free float' and so this could go well further up from here on even small further buying pressure.. assuming big holders aren't selling into this rally, of course.. and i'd be surprised if they do as this 14p is still a small number and Market cap imho.. but lets see as this has a history of trickiness
Ashley House welcomes this week's budget and the move to increase funding for both health and housing property schemes. Within health, significant funding is being directed to Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships which, amongst other things will facilitate closer integration between health and social care. Within the housing sector, the Government is committing increased funding benefitting the Company's modular offsite offer as well as supported living as noted below. The Company looks forward to considering the detail of this renewed impetus and additional Government support for its health and housing activities.
The Company also notes the positive reaction by its funding and Registered Provider (Housing Association) partners to the Government dropping its plans to cap housing benefit in the supported living sector. Subject to there being no material changes in the forthcoming consultation process, the Company is confident that its strong housing scheme pipeline can now progress.
Ashley House is targeting financial close on two housing schemes in the next few weeks. One is a traditional build and the other is modular, to be constructed through its subsidiary F1 Modular. The Company looks forward to these commencing build phase in the early New Year.
The Company continues to look to extend and widen its financing options to enable it to grow, to further invest in its pipeline as it accelerates and to strengthen its balance sheet and will further update the market in due course.
It has indeed moved up today after the budget Caddie..
'An extra £2bn for social care over next three years, with £1bn available in the next year'
I guess mostly known already but more clarity today perhaps ?
Very much time for an update from Ash soon me thinks.. even if still too early to announce project go aheads, at least a commentary on green lights now - or any amber lights still remaining -and a steer on possible new contract timings etc. would be welcome and not unreasonable to expect now?
it was in late 20's p in 2014 Sage .. and the co. has been around for a long long time and was more than ten time its current price back in the day (do a longterm chart view and alas it's awful) It was only getting seriously into this extra care housing etc space 6 odd years back when I first noticed it and it has been a hard journey for it in this space so far for various different reasons.. but hope springs eternal..
Generally, there are very few of these shares availabe for trading and so it can spike or tank easily .. eg a big fund manager selling down - maybe invesco from memory - meullered it a few years back...
I saw on PMO board yesterday Disorder saying he had sold up other positions to go all in on PMO.. If you're listening, does that mean you sold up here a while back Disorder? If yes, are you back in now?
Sage is thankful.to you whatever, no doubt . (the 'we' he uses in a previous post is too liberal though imho eg I've been in here for 6 years of my own volition and posting here - to myself often it felt and badly assiging buy recommendations too .. - for many of those years.. although from reading some recent posts of yours Disorder you held the share for years too..whatever about posting on this BB from a long time back )
Generally, this has been a very - very - tricky/ dissapointing share previously.. so I'll only get properly comfortable here when they start announcing new contracts won.. but the potential is indeed great here and they should be about to start unlocking iot now..
good luck to all holders.. if this company now gets going 50p + is possible imho
and hopefully the beginning of a sustainable wake up here now.. eg within months - instead of years - it will grow into a meaningful waking up of s/p
First we need to see the exact wording of the announcement that the PM referred to yesterday to see no other issues still stopping progress here.. sods law and Ashley house common in the same sentance and all that...
For the nth time in 5 years I note that is great potential here, imho :-)
Extra Care Housing go aheads are still crucial to meanningful success for Ashley House imho and the goverments very drawn out LHA policy discussion process has been very challenging for them imho... and off the back my calls for years here have been very poor. ( apols. again)
Hopefully things are starting to progress for ashley house in this space soon ...but I have been sayimg that for 2 years plus now.. and so readily accept it so may take further time still ..
PS: Your posting here is very unbalanced imho Disorder -and not just here but elsewhere too ..PMO for eg - as you only list positives when there are glaringly obviously plenty of negatives too - and I while I think highlander was over the top in posting all those sells in the fashion he did I can see how he was driven to it by your style of posting.
Also the share price has gone down since you've been posting here... so he has called this well in the short term at least .. whereas you - and I, but I stopped posting buy recs. out of embarrasment a good while back - have called this badly... so far...
Of course, you might be right in the end but even if you are I feel compelled to say I pay less and less attention to your posting here (and elsewhere)
As expected the Company made a small profit for the year to 30 April 2017. With the continued back drop of a lack of clarity from Government on their policy on elderly care (the LHA cap issue mentioned below), the business continues to build its pipeline whilst a solution is found to unlock the development of these much needed facilities. Recent developments with funders and Registered Providers now being prepared to proceed despite the Government's procrastination, means there is a real expectation that schemes can start to be built out which will be the catalyst for growth in the coming months and years.
Profit before tax for the year to 30 April 2017 was £67,000 (2016: £241,000) whilst adjusted PBT (profit before tax, depreciation, impairment and other operating income) for the year to 30 April 2017 was £53,000 (2016: £1,160,000). Revenue was slightly behind last year at £18,565,000 (2016: £20,737,000). The Company continued to further invest in its pipeline and completed an acquisition both partly financed by an increase in net debt to £2,547,000 (2016: £1,987,000) as detailed in the Strategic report.
Strategic acquisition of modular capability
A significant corporate development this year was the Company's increased involvement in F1 Modular Limited (F1M) and the acquisition by F1M in March this year of the assets of an experienced offsite manufacturer. F1M is now a 76% subsidiary of Ashley House plc with the remaining shares held by F1M management. The business operates from its leased 70,000 square feet factory in mid Wales. Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) is receiving a significant amount of positive press in relation to the housing crisis including the White Paper on Housing published in February this year. The quality and energy efficiency of the housing and other developments F1M produces is excellent and it has one of the few systems that meet 2015 Building Regulations. F1M has a growing pipeline with places on Local Authority frameworks LHC1 and LHC3 and most recently obtained a place (through Ashley House) on the new ESFA schools framework. The business works in the private sector building retail units and housing although it is increasingly focussing on satisfying demand in the affordable housing and education sectors. F1M is currently in production with a pilot scheme of affordable houses in Banbury and social housing bungalows in Consett, County Durham. Further information is provided in the Strategic report.
The last few months has seen the successful completion of two further extra care housing facilities in Harwich and Walton, both for Essex County Council and Tendring District Council. These two developments are leased to Season, a subsidiary of the Registered Provider One Housing Group. Both schemes were funded by Funding Affordable Homes and supported by grants from Essex County Council.
The Company has continued to extend its housing pipeline although the delivery of these schemes continues to be delayed by Government's intention to restrict Housing Benefit to the Local Housing Allowance ("LHA") rate, which is substantially below the re-imbursement tenants in extra care housing schemes require. As stated in last year's report, the Government's announcement relating to LHA had the unintended consequence of halting new extra care housing developments. Whilst Government subsequently agreed to support people needing extra care with 'top-up' funding it is still not clear what form this will take and without clarity funders, Local Authorities and Registered Providers have been unable to contract on schemes.
The ageing population coupled with the housing crisis ensure that the demand for extra care housing remains very strong. We believe a Government resolution to the issue of the cap is close but in the meantime the Company has been working with funders and Registered Providers to create contractual structu
We all understand you hold a short position on ASH that won't deliver for you or you are a disgruntled former employee with a bad attitude to the company or some/all of its directors but you must realise by now that you are also a repetitive bore. You add nothing to the discussion positive or negative.
Go to the side-lines and watch in silence to see if your goal becomes a reality and then come back and tell us how clever you were all along if this does crash and burn. Just stop being a repetitive bore in the meantime.
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