Apparently the supply of gas to Croatia and Italy will be affected by the gas hub explossion in Austria. The hub routes Russian gas in to Europe. 10% of Europes gas was going through it. Italy has declared state of gas emergency. Croatia and Slovenia may be also affected.
First it's sad news as someone was killed and otheres are injured. Having said that we export our gas from Slovenia to Croatia and so demand and I assume price will be affected by this. If the Hub takes some weeks to fix, and looking at the pictures I guess several weeks minimum frankly, this could benefit Ascent in terms of price for the gas and amount sold to INA in Croatia.
don't want to give updates on gas sales every couple of weeks, which is understandable. So with luck as this Friday is one month since the last update we will get one this week. My gut feeling is the market just wants re-asurance the existing two wells are performing as expected and Decembers gas sales will be around the 2.7 MMscfd they mentioned in the first gas sales RNS which was one week after production started on 2nd November. As Decembers sales was set @ 2.1 to 2.7 MMscfd in the agreement with INA no-one can be expecting any more, unless they are daft. LOL! What I really am praying for is a negotiated increase in the original agreements 2.9 MMscfd maximum for the last 10 months of the agreement with INA. To move the sp up over the 2p level I think we would need this increased over 3.5 MMscfd for the last 10 months, or that IPPC permit to finally land on the door mat.
Normally I'd agree about the bad news, but then there's CH's share purchase just before the conference call to consider. If there'd been any hint of a problem he would have kept his powder dry to try and shore up the sp after the news was out. So I'm cautiously expecting production to be increased as planned and no nasty surprises. With sentiment so low, we can't afford any.
shares @ 1.45p and I thought "I bet". Well folks they posted at 9:10 this AM they had done it and now it has appeared on the list. MM's delayed showing it until after the market closed. So 11,265,517 x 0.0145 = £163, 349.99p. What can I say.... THANKS!!!!!!
Oh they reckon news soon. Hmm.
performance is what I'm waiting for. Thus far, all be it extremely slowly due to bureaucracy we have progressed to plan leading us to this juncture. Everything the Company wanted to do has happened. The last point being the planning objector losing his case against us so we should now finally get the permit to build the CO2 scrubber enbling us to process the gas ourselves and sell it direct to the Slovenian national grid for a far higher price. Note it may well be we never have to build the plant as our existing customer could, if they choose increase the price they pay to us for the unprocessed gas (to stop us building the plant and becoming their competitor) and accept all the current and future volume via the export pipe back to Croatia. That would be up to INA and our board to agree a ten year plus time scale and price of course. However The performance of the two wells is the final hurdle in the business plan. The last RNS told us the start sales volume was 2.1 MMscfd. It also said they were going too assess the production levels once the data for November was available. So here we are. To me at least this is very important. If they can confirm an increase of some sort it will give confidence to frankly the whole buisiness plan. The whole business plan is simply put to re-work nine existing wells and sell the gas. We have re-worked two wells and finally there is a route to market after years of wait. If the wells perform then the key to profits from the whole gas field is unlocked and Ascent will be rapidly increasing profits. If this is the case my opinion is we will be bought, probably by INA, or Petrol, our partner in Slovenia.
There was a query on my post on another site as follows:-
EmeraldCarrots - The peak production rate, according to the AST website is 35MMscfd.
I stand corrected. However I'm absolutely sure the management at Ascent would be extremely happy to export 28 MMscfd of gas at peak production. Two points. First the 35 MMscfd is the business plan and frankly may or may not be achieved. Secondly even if 35 MMscfd were reached or even exceeded it would just mean the gas sales would confinue longer to eventually drain all the gas. Oh, also in the interims it says "over 28MMscfd". See below the copy and paste.
"Once operational, the export pipeline could accommodate daily production of over 800,000 cubic metres per day (28MMscfd)."
Once we have the permit INA will not want us to build the scrubber because we currently sell the gas to them, they scrub the CO2 out, then sell it, possibly even back to the Slovenian grid!
This leaves them with 3 choices:-
1. Accept no gas will be arriving from us in 11 months time, and have Ascent as a direct competitor once the CO2 scrubber is built.
2. Bid for Ascent and take us over. Then they would send the gas back to their plant in Croatia for treating I am sure. Holy smoke! Think of the money saved by them! 7 million euros for building a new plant!!!! Hmm.......... Bid more likely then??
3. Offer to pay more for Ascents gas in return for us NOT building the CO2 scrubber.
Interesting isn't it? These are the only options I can think INA have.
Option 2 would be fantastic but frankly option 3 would be very good too.
We know the export pipe can take 28 million cubic feet of gas per day. Even at peak production Ascents business plan only reaches 23 MMscfd. Thus the export pipe can take all the gas the field is ever likely to produce. Seems to me the glaringly obvious solution here is for INA to pay much more for the untreated gas. Even the tree-huggers would be happy!!!!
The IPPC permit will arrive fairly soon I'm quite sure.
The CO2 scrubber issue is interesting. I'm wondering what INA think of us building a CO2 scrubber, then selling the gas we send them now to the Slovenian grid instead! I'm wondering whether INA will offer us a beter price for the un treated gas, in return for us NOT building the scrubber! If a deal to take up to 25 MMscfd could be done (the export pipe is goof for this), and a contract signed for say 15 years at X discount to the spot price of treated gas??? Then we won't need a CO2 plant!!!!!!
Broadly speaking we are in alignment DanDaDan. That the SP is being suppressed is a given for me but we differ in reasons. I personally haven't got one but I don't concur with the notion that it's got anything to do with the IPPC ticket itself, (which, incidentally, may well indeed have to be re-presented due to the lag time between previous approval and moving forwards. Permits usually have some limits attached - but who knows).
Anyway, from what you say you are not talking about the environmental permit itself but the scrubbing kit. It would be a bloody poor show if there was any further dilution whatsoever in relation to financing the build - CH went on open record as well as video stating that this would be wholly covered by bank loans. Anything else would be absolutely perverse.
I'll happily subscribe to the DD theory - AST are ripe for a T/O at the moment and the ongoing slaughter of the SP defies all logic - to me anyway.
I can't really agree on the 2 million theory - I held 5M at one point and offloaded in 1 and 2 million tranches. I've also bought in tranches of that size when the price suited. Look at today even - almost 3 hours into the market and 3.8M traded. It's absolutely nothing at all.
Whatever is holding this SP where it's being held is not being controlled by copious supply and demand activity - [email protected] with 150K and [email protected] with 75K.
IPPC permission was previously processed. So the Gov't are hardly going to change their minds now are they?
They know it is coming, if not already processed and waiting for a rubber stamp.
Now to the issue of the IPPC financial package being set UP.
Don't you think that the previous arranged deal will be represented.
Presented as debt, but remember
These financiers are all chummy together, so it could be laced with quite a few free shares to give them a nice bonus for waiting so long.
They may call it a set up fee or administrative charge. Advance sell these before you announce that another 100m at 1p are issued..
That is one way of looking at why this sp is so low.
'All pals together'.
Another alternative is due diligence and hold a line. Someone want this on the cheap.
Those 2m share transactions yesterday were hardly normal or were they?
The Co2 scrubbing plant will be financed by the company borrowing the money. Fact is we have still not got the permit to build it. We got the RNS to say the tree hugger's last appeal had failed which is good (at long, long last). I believe our application is finally being processed by the authorities. So the next big news will either be actually, finally receiving the bl**** permit, or an uplift in gas slaes to INA. Regarding the lack of TR1's it is surprising. One or two must be due in view of the share price drop.
The actual financing and finally building of the CO2 scrubber is months away, assuming we do get the permit. They may be going our to re-tender the work, and may be approaching other lenders to finance building it I suppose. Nothing can happen until we get the permit.
What financial package would this be then? If the actual permit had been received we would have heard. Any reapplication required for the permit is going to cost only a little time and very little money.
As this is typed there have been 3 x 2,000,000 and 1 x 1,000,000 of these ***HUGE*** transactions taken place today, amounting to a !!! MASSIVE !!! £60,000 in share transactions. Today there has been to this point a %%% GIGANTIC %%% 29,000,000 trades amounting to a WHOPPING £435K of value.
As for "millions traded every day". Come on man! With 2,268,000,000 shares in issue, anything less than hundreds of millions is a disinterested day - and today as it stands, it looks like 1.3% of the stock has been traded.
Whatever the reason it's under such sustained pressure it's nothing to do with millions being traded every day.
The only good thing is a whole load of people sold out while the pump and dump was going on.
I'm waiting for a flow rates update RNS. If an increase can be confirmed we will be waving good bye to the 1.45p bid. After all from 2.1 MMscfd to 2.7 MMscfd it's another £900K per year according to my calculations. Of course we have the so called "local" gas sales to add to that. If 2.7 MMscfd happens it equates to revenue of £4.1m per year. That's what I make it anyway.
Basically @ 2.1 MMscfd it's £3,171,394.
And 2.7 is £4,077,507.
Difference £906,113, about 28%.
28% more revenue obviously would shift the sp up, I presume similar?
1.45p plus 28% = 1.85p.
Add to that more confidence in the wells............
Of course we need an RNS to have this hopefully play out.
influential this W H Ireland wealth management lot are (assuming that "squawk" is theirs and real!). Will be interesting whatever. We moved from bid 1.45 to bid 1.65 today, which is some move up based seemingly only on a brokers note. May there be plenty of other borkers notes to come. There may well be as we have only been in proper gas production for 4 weeks............. Presumably the brokers will be re-assessing ascent now things have changed. A just wish they would get on with it.
management Co. if I am reading that right they think Ascent shares are worth a minimum of 3.11p.
Erm... the bid price is bid 1.65p. Here's hoping that the sp zooms to 3p tomorrow. Fat chance! Maybe we will get over 2p in a few weeks on this with luck. Back over the 2p would be a whole lot better than we are now that is for sure. You never know. A nice bid @ 3.5p or so would be just the ticket to lead into xmass.
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