Last week I'd moved slightly into profit. I'm still holding on for the dividend.
Very disappointed to see this fall back again so quickly. I'm now down over 5%. Odd how it seems to fall fast but rise back slowly. Not sure what to read into that.
I did notice one day this week the number of traded shares more than doubled. Usually around 8 million shares are traded per day but on Tuesday (I think it was Tuesday) more than 18 million were traded.
Perhaps something is going on in the background with the big holders.
This share has a dividend yield of plus 5%. The USD is now set up to rally. Sterling has peaked out and set to fall. Gold value has held up and company growth this year is around 8%. I am not sure how cheap they want it. I sold most of my position for 19p profit but kept around 16% for divi. If this keeps falling back it looks hugely attractive to get more CEY. Fortunately I can rebuild it up.
I have blocked off 30% of my portfolio on Hummingbird Resources which I am leaving as hold. The PE rate on that one is just 3.
Overall precious miners are unloved by major funds. They have massively dropped PE rates for the entire sector despite significant upwards forward earnings.
Bad timing (again) on my buy. The dividend could put me in profit, if we don't fall much further, but it's a long way off. I just hope I don't have to hold on for 5 months to see a profit, like last time.
It's a good bet that we'll be north of 160 at some point this year. I'll just have to hold on.
I don't see gold as the prime mover on the SP, that always causes a response but I've never seen a direct correlation and I constantly watch both.
I was going to sell as i feel gold could pullback a bit but have decided to hang on and hold as the dividend is appealing. However it could still fall back far more than the dividends worth if it goes back to 130s
Boats come and go shugg1e, the thing is not to panic. You might be correct though, on this occasion, time will tell.
I do note we've had a tendency towards moving up and down between 160p and approximately 165p recently, treading water until the market makes up its mind maybe.
We may break out of that trend either up or down. I tend towards down at the moment but that could change in the next 5 minutes when I look at the share price again.
The way the market looks at things the results weren't good. Costs are rising and profits falling and no one wants to buy the product. I know that's an over exaggeration but markets can be brutal. If we look at the PoG chart in sterling then it's been falling since January 12th. Has gold really been rising. Which currency should we be looking at, if any. There are so many ways to look at things.
I'm not adverse to buying in at a higher price than I sold. Depends if I think CEY is going to head upwards or stagnate, the dividend seems to be the only near term driver, at least for me. If I buy 30,000 shares I could earn over two grand in the next dividend.
I look upon holding cash as my insurance against possible uncertainty but I'd really like to get that dividend.
Jefferies basically have 156p on 11 cents earnings but that has to be on a gold price of just 1220 average for the entire year or they do not believe management's 770 AISC. I believe the AISC is correct as Egypt's currency is at best equal to dollar performance and usually a lot worse.
Works out at 13.5 cents per share after sharing 27 cents. Target would become 192p with a yield of 3.6% on proposed dividend. This relies on average gold price of 1320 per ounce for the year and sterling rate of 1.40. At 1270 average gold price the target is 174p.
Granted it was on a downtrend but as clear as day that trend was busted on the 11/12th December 2017 and we are in a new very bullish uptrend that will smash 170p and take out previous highs before the summer.
SP wise I'm disappointed. We have just recovered to where we were last week.
One poster did teach me something a few years ago, news will only cause a blip up or down before the SP resumes it's previous course. As Centamin SP was on a downward trend perhaps it's an opportunity to sell, take stock and buy back in when a trend becomes apparent or hopefully at a cheaper SP.
The growth element for 2018 works out at 12% over 2017 on production and cost benefit. The add on beat is less than I anticipated. The additional income stream from Q4 is $2M or adds just over a penny to the increase on the SP.
The reserves and resources give significant increases under proven but less under inferred. The net figure is down but proven resource value is higher than inferred on any NAV calculation. It is the underground resource that has helped in that regard. The upshot is that Centamin looks strong for the coming years but they need to bring on more ounces of gold from their acquisitions to build up inferred and also replace the proven in the longer term. The update is only Sukari and does not discuss the 7 areas around the mine which may well recover a lot of what has reduced under inferred in the open pit.
Overall the update is strong for 2018 but we need to learn a lot more on 31 January.
From the data provided by Siko on LSE Board, I have calculated the annual production to be somewhere near 551,400 ounces based on similar recovery profiles of earlier 2017 quarterly results. This should be earnings beat of $5.5M or 0.4 cents higher per share. This should add back, 2.9p to the SP on Tuesday.
I took some off CEY at 158.2 the other day for a modest £200 profit and reinvested in Hummingbird which had a nice run this morning.
As for CEY resource report it depends on the volume of ounces discovered. So if they found an additional 1.5M ounces that would add around £120M value to CEY. Now to achieve that, they need to recover what they mined out from the last report which is around 1.5M ounces. So a discovery of 3M ounces would push the SP up by 6.5% or 10p.
We do know the Cleopatra decline is a 500,000 ounces plus added resource. After all the exploration work over recent years I would be disappointed if another million ounces was not found. If we end up just recovering what was mined out, this would ensure the 2018 AISC remains very competitive as the future exploration budget would remain the same. It would also suggest that a 1380 gold price could spike CEY to the 180p mark.
Overall I am optimistic about CEY. I have two pools in two accounts. My largest CEY pool is well up and the much smaller one is currently a penny up which is what I half sold off and reallocated to Hummingbird. I believe that share sees 50p-55p at some point in time.
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