Granted it was on a downtrend but as clear as day that trend was busted on the 11/12th December 2017 and we are in a new very bullish uptrend that will smash 170p and take out previous highs before the summer.
SP wise I'm disappointed. We have just recovered to where we were last week.
One poster did teach me something a few years ago, news will only cause a blip up or down before the SP resumes it's previous course. As Centamin SP was on a downward trend perhaps it's an opportunity to sell, take stock and buy back in when a trend becomes apparent or hopefully at a cheaper SP.
The growth element for 2018 works out at 12% over 2017 on production and cost benefit. The add on beat is less than I anticipated. The additional income stream from Q4 is $2M or adds just over a penny to the increase on the SP.
The reserves and resources give significant increases under proven but less under inferred. The net figure is down but proven resource value is higher than inferred on any NAV calculation. It is the underground resource that has helped in that regard. The upshot is that Centamin looks strong for the coming years but they need to bring on more ounces of gold from their acquisitions to build up inferred and also replace the proven in the longer term. The update is only Sukari and does not discuss the 7 areas around the mine which may well recover a lot of what has reduced under inferred in the open pit.
Overall the update is strong for 2018 but we need to learn a lot more on 31 January.
From the data provided by Siko on LSE Board, I have calculated the annual production to be somewhere near 551,400 ounces based on similar recovery profiles of earlier 2017 quarterly results. This should be earnings beat of $5.5M or 0.4 cents higher per share. This should add back, 2.9p to the SP on Tuesday.
I took some off CEY at 158.2 the other day for a modest £200 profit and reinvested in Hummingbird which had a nice run this morning.
As for CEY resource report it depends on the volume of ounces discovered. So if they found an additional 1.5M ounces that would add around £120M value to CEY. Now to achieve that, they need to recover what they mined out from the last report which is around 1.5M ounces. So a discovery of 3M ounces would push the SP up by 6.5% or 10p.
We do know the Cleopatra decline is a 500,000 ounces plus added resource. After all the exploration work over recent years I would be disappointed if another million ounces was not found. If we end up just recovering what was mined out, this would ensure the 2018 AISC remains very competitive as the future exploration budget would remain the same. It would also suggest that a 1380 gold price could spike CEY to the 180p mark.
Overall I am optimistic about CEY. I have two pools in two accounts. My largest CEY pool is well up and the much smaller one is currently a penny up which is what I half sold off and reallocated to Hummingbird. I believe that share sees 50p-55p at some point in time.
I'd been watching the share price rise towards the end of the morning. My finger had been literally hovering over iii's new swipe to sell button but I wasn't tempted. I was about £1,500 in profit plus £550 in cash from the last dividend.
The thing is I didn't realise that the market closed at 12:30 today.
I'm expecting a drop soon. As tony mentioned shared rarely rise in a straight line.
Maybe it will prove fortunate. I'd hate to lose my profit again and need to wait another three months to get back to where we are now. Roll on Tuesday 2nd.
We have no reserves and resouces report thus far which is a let down on what the company said they would do. I can only assume that exploration results ran late. We certainly know the Cleopatra decline probably recovers 500,000 ounces mined out from this year. They need to find another 1,100,000 ounces to takes us back to pre-2015 RR levels. I suspect the underground resource helped with some of it. The boost if any would be a better gold resource find. Taking us back to where we were several years ago preserves NAV.
As for CEY it never goes up in a straight line. We know however that you do not trade your share pool. You may therefore need to be patient to get your exit price.
I would not be worried at your entry price. If this company has found say a million ounces of gold after investing $90M over the past 3 years or so at an economic price to extract it recovers the NAV and adds $310M value. This would give you a 10% plus return. The report has to come out by 29 December as the company has said umpteen times it would be this year. The key is whether beat 1M ounces or found nothing after all their AISC spending. If they find more then Centamin really takes off.
Last few ups and downs have been between 134p and 149p. When we reached 149p I was tempted to sell. When we dropped yesterday I felt "here we go again". After today's initial drop I was cursing myself for hesitating. Now that we've ended today in the blue I'm not so sure.
Perhaps we can break the 149p ceiling this time.
Tony mentioned a long overdue production report, maybe some positive news might help break us out of the current cycle.
Re-draw your blue line Shugg without ignoring the third peak from the left and the new blue line from first to third peak extends nicely to the recent peak. The sp hit the trend line as DTG said and has retreated. It will try again but all indications are that it will be from a lower base. (But of course I could be wrong - always worth considering that there is a chance you could be wrong - makes you appreciative of others sharing their thoughts.)
Good to have your charting expertise here again David - I have 125p short term and 115p before we see a turn around opportunity - anything can happen of course but the awful events on Friday are going to damage all things Egypt for a while. Horrendous.
I was pleased that the issue of recoveries/yield is being dealt with by July 2018 and will be back up to 90% again. It is a hallmark of a quality company run with a lot of knowledge on their entire quality system and understanding of the production process to give updates and keep an eye on this issue. The difference of 2.5% all adds to meeting targets.
What astonishes me on some of the gold miner AIM boards is how recovery data is only considered as an after thought especially as some explorers become manufacturers. They fail to see why analyst financial forecast data is sometimes only 20% of their profit estimations. Some of the AIM companies delisted had a history of hiding yield and recovery data. I am glad this company is experienced enough to be beyond that stage and not part of any boiler room hack squad constantly pumping up their stock on investor platforms.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.