Now that the permits are more of a 'when' than an 'if' I would have expected a little speculation start to appear in the price. I'm therefore somewhat puzzled by the last few days action which has sent it in the opposite direction. Is this just market making or have the day traders showing a bit of impatience? I've no idea. What I do know is that all the right noises are coming out of both the company and Nicaraguan officials.
The real question of course is one of what happens when the permits do arrive. I would imagine that we will get some price adjustment towards Condor's peer group average but will any takeover speculation start? We can only guess but I'm pretty sure the tyres must have been kicked in anticipation of an official sanction from local politicians. Will it then be a full takeover or a JV type arrangement with Condor's excellent local relationships oiling the wheels of mining activity? I'm expecting the latter but not completely dismissing the former. We'll just have to see what transpires when the permits are granted.
If the permits are granted in the next few weeks ( 2 - 10 weeks?) I'm guessing the price reaction could be quite positive given that I detect little or no speculative buying in today's price. A 100% jump might be too much to expect but I don't see a 20% - 50% increase as wildly optimistic given what happens with other companies. Take Eurasia mining for example which experienced a 40% increase in early February after receiving its own permits. It's usually takeover speculation that really propels the price but Condor's has been suppressed for such an inordinately long time that it just might spring.
I've just about started to look in on this on a day by day basis now.
The longer term trend may still look good but gold still appears stuck in the $1300 - $1360 band. Trump's threatened tariffs are hitting the USD and U.S. stocks which is probably helping today but it's difficult to see what wil really push it up over $1400, or knock it below $1300 for that matter.
Meanwhile, on the Condor front I'm still optimistic that we will see the permits come through by mid-year. The company relationship with both locals and government looks increasingly a solid one.
The question of course is what they are worth in price. Could be 10p or 50p or more; it's impossible to say although we will have the Canadian market to help with a move when it does happen. Lack of familiarity with Condor could well be what is holding it back at the moment.
It's good to see the SP starting to recover with the latest permit info. I just hope we don't see the pump and dump crowd move in and spoil it for the longer term investors.
The timeline on the actual granting is still not clear but I would imagine that it there is a good chance it will be in this half of the year. Condor has bent over backwards to accommodate the needs of the people impacted by the project; that must count for something.
After the grant news the question then becomes one of being bought or building a mine. After years of being in Condor I could live with either although I'm quite happy to run the course if the build route remains the best course to see value returned. I've got my fingers crossed that MC will not make the same mistakes as Arian Silver, the epitome of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Gold still looks like it's on uptrend although apparently taking a breath at the moment. Its behaviour is puzzling given the weakness of the USD.
It would seem the resettlement issue is being completely by-passed and I'd expect a permit pretty soon (month or two( judging by this.
PERMITTING UPDATE MINA LA INDIA, REDESIGNED OPEN PIT, NO RESETTLEMENT
Condor Gold (AIM: CNR; OTCQX: CNFGF; TSX: COG) is pleased to announce that it
has formally submitted an amendment to an Environmental and Social Impact
Assessment ("ESIA") to the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources in
Nicaragua ("MARENA"), which is part of an application for an Environmental
Permit, to construct and operate a processing plant with capacity to process
up to 2,800 tonnes per day ("tpd") or 1 million tonnes per annum ("tpa"),
without the need to resettle approximately 330 houses or 1,000 people.
Mark Child, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Condor, commented:
"Condor has been in constructive dialogue for several months with Nicaraguan
Government officials at Minister level to permit the construction and
operation of a new gold mine at Mina La India, Nicaragua. The general feedback
has been that permitting will be much easier if the mine can be redesigned to
proceed without resettling 1,000 people. Condor has accordingly formally
submitted an amendment to the main permit application to proceed without
I am delighted to say that Condor's technical team believe that the La India
Project is both technically viable and economically attractive to proceed with
a redesigned open pit that does not require community resettlement and also
includes the relocation of the processing plant approximately 1,200 metres
from the village. Mine scheduling studies are on-going, and further details
will be provided in due course. Condor Gold does not anticipate a material
change in the total ounces of gold expected to be recoverable from the
redesigned open pit compared to the open pit disclosed in the PFS (as defined
Key Amendments to the ESIA
A study has been completed to progress the La India Project without the need
for resettlement of the village of La Cruz de La India (the "Village"). The
main changes are a redesigned open pit, the relocation of the processing plant
1,200 meters from the Village, the possible elimination of the southern waste
dump, the elimination of the road relocation in year 3 of production and the
relocation of the explosive magazine. A 5 metre high berm is planned between
the redesigned open pit and the Village to reduce noise and dust pollution.
The mine site infrastructure requirements will be reduced by over 30% to
approximately 500 hectares.
The La India open pit disclosed in the PFS has an existing probable mineral
reserve of 6.9 million tonnes ("Mt") at 3.01 grams per tonne ("g/t") gold for
675,000 oz gold, as set forth in the Technical Report (as defined below) that
was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of
Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101"). A revised mine scheduling study
is currently underway. The Company does not expect that the changes to the La
India Project as detailed in the amended ESIA will materially change the
mineral reserves, mineral resources and the production rate disclosed in the
On 1 December 2015 Condor announced that it had completed an ESIA and formally
submitted an application for an Environmental Permit to MARENA for the
construction and operation of an open pit mine, a CIL processing plant and
associated infrastructure at La India Project, Nicaragua.
The ESIA is a 700 page document which considers the environmental and social
impacts of gold production from the La India open pit mine plan detailed in
the Technical Report and the Whittle Enterprise Optimisation study as
announced on 20 October 2015. The ESIA draws on data from 15 different
environmental and social baseline studies, some of which commenced in 2013. In
addition to describing the potential impacts of a future commercial min
A 1 to 3 bagger is quite possible imo but as you say it depends on some good news re permits. I like that CNR have stopped exploration drilling for now and are in tick over mode and are quite advanced on side stepping the relocation issue. Personally I think that unless the relocation route can be wrapped up quickly and with near 100% village approval, I think they should ram that idea deep down in the bin.
The so calledTSX listing re-rate was a damp squib but I think in the long run will drive the SP increases once permits are approved.
I don't think it's a distant possibility but it obviously depends on a couple of things happening.
At micro or company level we need to see those permits issued. This could be days, weeks or potentially months away. I may be optimistic but I don't think it is a year or years away if we have indeed got the momentum in the discussions that the MC meetings suggest. I've got my fingers crossed on it happening by or during the Summer but then who knows.
The other factor lurking in the background is the price of gold. PoG has weakened in the last week or so but the longer term trend is still up. I've heard forecasts in the relative short term (2018) of $1530 (juliette declercq mentioned on last week's Macro Voices https://www.macrovoices.com/370-eric-peters-systemic-risks-are-mounting)
and in the longer term (by 2020) of a return to $2000.
Jeffrey Christian was an 'enemy' of the goldbug fraternity around the time of the last financial crisis but he did nail the fall in gold, and he does appear to have some very close connections with the institutions that move the gold market. Perhaps he will be right on this one. Again, a Macro Voices interview last year outlines his thinking (https://www.macrovoices.com/311-jeffrey-christian-gold-on-course-for-new-all-time-highs-by-2020).
We don't hear the bear calls on gold these days but then there are not too many cheerleaders either. Cryptos seem to be where the fast money seems to swill around in.
In we get the two factors working together at roughly the same time I do think that Condor could see a return to the 100p+ world. In the meantime I guess we just have to sit tight and wait for something to happen on either front. Still a good buy opportunity from me, though I have not added recently.
The final slide, mostly a reminder of where we are:
Once permits granted:
- 12 months of additional technical studies to BFS
-18 - 24 month construction period
Expand Gold Resources:
- 8,500m drilling in 2017
- Targeting increase in contained gold in resource by approximately 0.9M ounces
Demonstrate District Play:
- 2,800m scout drilling completed in 2017
- Follow up on targets generated by soil survey, structural study
- Rock chip sampling and trenching continuing in District
- Geological mapping continuing in District
The permits are obviously the catalyst for progress at the moment but it seems to me that we are on the brink of a breakthrough. The business case is there and the willingness is there; it should simply be a case of someone putting pen to paper with a signature. Everyone seems on board but the bureaucratic process never delivers as fast as it should. When approvals arrive I would not be surprised if they catch everyone by surprise given the elongated time it has taken so far.
There is an attached pdf, much of which is already out there. With respect to the permit aspect this is a C&P from the slide headed 'Permitting':
Permit for a base case open pit mine at La India is at an advanced stage
-Re-permitting the former mine which closed in 1956.
-Construction of a 2,800 tpd processing plant, producing 100koz of gold p/a
-AISC under $700/oz
-Upfront capital cost of $120M
Passed all technical reviews of EIA
Condor has had in constructive talks with national government over past 18 months
-The government had given its blessing for Condor to now enter into direct dialogue with the local community to form a resettlement agreement
‒  Strengthening team on the ground to help with community relations and stakeholder engagement
‒  The local community lies in the old mining district and of a mining heritage.
The case for building a mine is also compelling ' 'Benefits of a mine':
US$120M foreign direct investment from a British Company
Show case state of the art mine in Central America with best possible environmental practices
3% royalty on sales
30% corporation tax
To the Community
United Nations poverty index at 41% in local community
Reduces 75% to a poverty index of 11% with a new mine
500 jobs during the construction period
300 jobs during the operations
Average salary in mining in Nicaragua is US$700pm vs US$200pm nationally
Training courses to improve skills and salaries
For every 1 job in a mine 5 jobs supplying the mine
New healthcare center and school
Water 24/7 not 1 hour in 48 hours
MC talked to some shareholders on Thursday and would like to ensure that his thoughts are broadcast to everyone. I received a (second hand) email this morning which outlined a number of things discussed. They are not really news as such or we would have had an RNS but they do act as reassurance that things are actually happening with the company; MC is pretty adamant that he has not been twiddling his thumbs and that he is very active in pursuing Condor's interests.
My synopsis of the email content:
The permit delays have arisen because of the proximity of the village to the proposed activity area. The Government has repeatedly indicated that they will issue the required permits but it looks to me like a fear of doing the wrong thing has delayed the actual admin. MC has explored options avoiding resettlement and to lift a quote from the email:
'It is technically feasible and economically viable to progress the mine without resettlement with an open pit approximately the same size as the PFS pit which has an economic reserve of 675,000 oz gold at 3.0g/t gold, with production of circa 80k oz gold per annum.'
'Note that the reserve pit contains inferred material which is excluded. In other words, the recovered gold to the ROM pad is over 700,000 oz gold. We are studying how fast this can be mined.'
It looks like Condor is initially permitting 35% of the gold (1m oz) with a view to expand to 3m oz, 'this would be 2M oz recovery gold over the life of mine or approximately 200,000 oz gold per annum production.'
Recent meetings relating to the project have included:
1. Minster Mansell, the Minster of Energy and Mines
2. Presidents son
3. Director General Department of Mines
4. Director of Inward Investment Agency
5. Governor of Department of Leon (the mine is in his department)
6. Local Mayor
7. Local Priest
8. Head of Chamber of Mines
MC is adamant that this is a reflection of the fact that the mine will get permitted and that Condor is on its way to becoming a 'substantial 200k gold producer'.
I believe him. The recent pull back could be a rare opportunity to buy at an attractive price, a price that clearly does not reflect the proximity of the permits being received.
His full email is doing the rounds at the moment. MC clearly wants it shared with everyone.
Most interesting comment is on the 'biggest challenge' around 1.5mins. Seems they have a couple of plans to progress the mine without resettlement, possibly meaning all those 300 homes who's owners thought their shanty shack was worth a $100k, may well find it's now actually worth $1k.
Looks like the USD is going down slightly...if it falls to 1.42 for a quid I might just transfer some cash over from my UK bank ac.
Sorry you lost out badly with Arian. I got out ahead of the real crunch but not without pain and I continue to monitor their site and post as necessary each time the boyos imho try to prey on the unaware newbies.
I have been right out of Condor these last two years but I hope it will come good for you. Who knows?....Salvador might just allow resumption of mining if the days of "leftie rule" in the Americas are waning.
I've got out of most of my AIM investments ...just got Ariana these days plus some Canadian/US minnow miners. There is a mine fairly local to me which seems to have been getting its act together quite well and first gold pour is imminent. I'm invested in it (Northern Vertex - NHVCF -nasdaq and it's on Canadian TSX too, but dyor). Africa and Oriental stuff frightens me and for the last year I've been playing safe with banks and not unreasonable dividends compared to lousy interest rates. Banco de Bilbao, Santander and Lloyds have brought some bacon home for me.
I've also acquired a 22 foot, 5 berth sailboat to give me exercise and relaxation. We have a number of large man-made lakes along the Colorado and generally warm winters free from too many raucous visitors from LA!
I decided to reduce my posting frequency some time ago. There simply isnt enough to post about and Ive found other things to occupy my time.
Im still backing Condor and actually increased my holding a little last year. Its minimal compared the the person formally known as Sunjammer but will at least buy a new car if it comes through. The Arian debacle did set me back by at least £50k which hurt somewhat but did not knock me out of the ring. It was more like £80k overall but Ive pulled back about £30k on other gold related funds over the past couple of years. Im also a lot more interested in dividend payers these days so have skewed my portfolio in this direction. Overall Im probably back to where I was the day Arian dived into oblivion, somewhat wiser, less trusting in both direct and indirect representations from companies and more cautious.
Meanwhile on Condor I remain much happier that MC has a skin in the game and that his interests are far more aligned than the Arian crew were. Its just not enough to bet on a decent project; all the other factors need to be in place as well. Condor seems to be doing everything pretty much right but the uncontrollable elements such as the PoG are bound to influence. You can see it in the recent fluctuations.
I still keep a tranche of Arian in my portfolio to remind myself not to be a d%@£&*(d.
Tha fall in the USD is taking its toll on the FTSE but only providing moderate impetus to gold. Closing above $1355 yesteday was a step in the right direction but I think we need to see something convincing above $1360 before another shot up wards. If it doesn't we could see a pullback, irrespective of the weak USD.
DXY at 88.75; still looking really weak.
Meanwhile gold seems to be helping Condor keep its head above water although it look more like it's clutching on to the upper 50s vs. looking like it's getting reading to shoot at teh mid 60s or above. A run-up in gold could be a catalyst but failing that we've only got news from Condor which I don't think is imminent, unless someone knows better.
Taking a breath but it looks like some strength still in it.
We seem to have the opposing forces of a weakening USD generally pushing our equities lower and at the same time pushing gold up. It looks like the overall market sentiment aspect tripped up Condor today.
DXY at 89.32 when I looked. It's not doing well at all.
If it doesn't break through at least $1350 in the next few days I think your call is a better one. For a convincing higher high I reckon we need $1360 or so or we will lose that momentum and your $1320 could easily fall back to $1300.
The key seems to be the USD with the DXY really struggling to stay above 90.
It's reassuring to see gold back at $1340 again after testing the sub $1330 area several times recently. Shugg1e is pretty good at this sort of thing but my sense is that gold could be readying for a $30 - $30 leap, and maybe a shot at $1400 by Spring.
Condor should benefit, especially now the Canadians are on board. I think thet follow gold far more closely than people on this side of the Pond.
Bouncing around somewhat but the trend seems to be for the TSX to move down to AIM. When I last looked the last deal was 1.15 or 66p. I could see AIM moving up to the 62/64p level in the next couple of days and the TSX dropping to about 1.10. It looks like the rapidly diminishing arbitrage opportunity is about to go altogether and may already be there given any costs of transfer.
Notwithstanding that it has shown that the wiley Canadians are a lot more in tune with quality juniors than PIs trading on AIM. Overall it looks like the TSX has proved to be a good move.
Initially I was concerned that they would do a fund raising when they went public on the TSX, which would have been another dilution for us, but as per your note it seems they didn't. Given this I don't know why there is a price difference. As someone else kind of pointed out. Buy them on Aim and sell them on the TSX.
To answer my on question, they are AIM shares that have been transfered to the Computershare's Canadian Share Register.
'Shareholders who wish to trade on the TSX must have a Canadian broker. Shareholders who wish to sell existing shareholdings on the TSX must first transfer their holdings from Computershare's UK Share Register to Computershare's Canadian Share Register. Further information on this process is available on Condor's website'.
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