I did have an idea yesterday to sell ahead of ex-div and buy back today.
The theory being that prices tend to overshoot, so too high pre ex-div and too low post ex-div.
However, I didn't bother in the end. Shares are a gamble and I would have been gambling on the volatility of a gamble.
If I'd gone through with the deal, this morning, I would have just about been at break even (with dividend loss/dealing costs). That's not to say, in different circumstances, I could have been in profit.
A kind of time delayed arbitrage, anybody had any success with this (not just DC.)?
have traded this a little but aim to be in for the long ride back up. The ex-dividend date for this stock is Dec 31st with this and the santa rally which has arrived for the first time in 4 years the price has increased. Expect it to retrace in the new year
Have a good 2018 all
Numis believes the risk-reward outlook for Dixons Carphone (DC) is improving after the electricals retailer posted first-half results in line with forecasts.
Interim profit before tax fell sharply, as expected, and the companys central full-year guidance was trimmed by 5%, said analyst Matthew Taylor.
We expect further profit attrition in mobile but believe this will have a diminishing effect from 2019. Risks remain due to the high-ticket, discretionary product pitch and operational gearing, and the group needs to improve cash flow.
However, in our view the valuation at seven times price-earnings [on 2018 estimates] more than discounts this, at least for more adventurous funds.Taylor rates the shares an add with a 210p target price. The shares jumped 8.5% to 181.6p "
"Just when many investors were about to hang up on LSE:DC.:Dixons Carphone, back came the retailer today with a few reminders why it may not be a lost cause after all.Most significantly in light of the current uncertain trading conditions, the ..."
Currently the share price is around 179.2p and getting quite volatile. So up about 11p so far today. With my limited knowledge I thought that the results and outlook looked quite promising - and that the previous fall in the share price had been overdone on the basis of these results. I am beginning to suspect that the shorters might be having to close some positions and are pushing the price higher at the moment. Over £2 in the medium to short term?
Group headline PBT(1) of £61 million (2016/17: £154 million)
o Includes a negative £58m impact year-on-year from a change in receivables revaluations and insurance contract terms as indicated in August
Statutory profit before tax of £42 million (2016/17: £111 million), including non-headline charges of £19 million (2016/17: £43 million). Statutory basic EPS of 3.3p (2016/17: 8.1p)
Group H1 like-for-like revenue(3) up 4%; Q2 like-for-like up 3%; statutory revenue for H1 up 3%
Group H1 electricals like-for-like up 7%, growth across all markets and market share gains
o UK&I electricals like-for-like up 6%
o Nordics like-for-like up 8%
o Greece like-for-like up 7%
UK&I H1 mobile like-for-like down 3%
o Including the impact of delayed iPhone X launch into second half of financial year
Free cash flow(6) of £169 million (2016/17: £64 million) resulting from reduction in capex year-on-year, improved stock management, and favourable timing on working capital
Net debt(7) of £206 million (2016/17: £285 million)
Not traded Dixons since merger but after nearly 50% fall was sucked back in at 179 looking for 200.
Missed 197 intra day and foolishly did not take 193 for profit, too greedy.
Tomorrow bid day, is all the back news in? 50% drop in profits , last cover 2.8 so will Seb cut and screw us or as he got too any shares himself?
Let's hope the news is a bit better on the phone front and confidence in Christmas or will end up waiting a couple of years as at least some divi is better than 0.2%.
Visited my local PC World superstore at 7:00p.m. for a Black Friday deal on a laptop. Despite being virtually empty, no one so much as asked if I needed any help. After half an hour of milling around the power shorted in one part of the store and so I decided to leave. Bought the HP laptop I saw in PCW from Argos online for the same amount. So Dixon's. Never again. As I said it was as good as empty.
The price is down because the CEO said everyone is now keeping their smartphones rather than buying new. When retail sales is core to the business it's obvious the City is not happy about the interim statement. Institutional shareholders at the AGM were very upset with the CEOs poor outlook based on pure speculation. It was anticipated that sales of iPhone would bump the price up immediately the CEO advised but even this hadn't materialised yet. His anti-Brexit stance also worries many because it seems he won't adapt his business model either. Time for this CEO to go, after all he wanted to go to ITV anyway.
"Dixons Carphone (LSE:DC.)With all the usual nonsense about the release of a new iPhone, we thought it may prove worthwhile to view how one of the mobile outlets' share prices is doing. Not so great, it turns out. But the changes may ring soon. ..."
" DIXONS CARPHONE (LSE:DC.) With all the usual nonsense about the release of a new iPhone, we thought it may prove worthwhile to view how one of the mobile outlets share price is doing. Not so great, it turns out. But the changes may ring soon. ..."
Totally agree but with interims not until 13 Dec this
may drift even lower over next 3-4 weeks. P/E less than
6 (historic less than 5). Dividend yield over 7% and that should still
be over twice covered on the lower PBT range. Market must think
UK sales have fallen off a cliff since the August update.
"Investec has upgraded its stance on Dixons Carphone to buy from hold, keeping the price target at 185p.
The brokerage noted the stock has been down on the back of worries about downgrades, but said that any further material downgrades are unlikely, even though the groups first half results are likely to be weak given mobile headwinds and the timing of non-cash P&L adjustments.
Valuation in our view is looking increasingly attractive with recent share price weakness overdone and risk/reward on the upside, it said.
In addition, while uncertainty surrounding mobile is likely to persist, Investec reckons Carphone retains a high degree of flexibility to deal with the challenges it faces.
The brokerage expects first-half pre-tax profit of £61m, down 58% on the year, with the drop driven in part by last years one-off profit items. On the other side of the ledger, it expects around £14m profit progression across UK Electricals, Nordics & Greece."
After 12 years and a lot of extra shares in big box, talk talk etc (all sold at he time) flogged all mine 3 days ago as I reckon its a lame duck now. £1000 for the I phone X is bonkers, slow death as people cannot afford to upgrade or just do not want to. Has been an excellent cash cow but had enough.
I was in but, now out. I thought the Apple iPhone X would cause more excitement and the ramp up to Christmas. But, anecdotally I have not been into one of their stores for the best part of 10 years. Not even out of curiosity. I can't be the only one feels that way.
The luke-warm take-up of the new iphone you mentioned is for the iphone 8 which to me has very littl more to offer over the iphone 6 I have.
I imagine, like me, most people are waiting for the new iPhone X which is more of a sea-change in iphones that the 8 and should be released in a month or so.
Let's hope the X takes off (I've bought some Apple recently) and drags Dixons up with it...
I'm betting that the recent price drop was overdone and we're heading into the Christmas trading period but to what extent will the luke warm take up of the new iPhone dampen SP recovery? It might not be the only phone or OS which DC sell but as a new Investor here, I haven't got a feel as to how tightly the SP tracks the fortunes of Apple. Any thoughts?
At current prices there is not much chance of losing money. About a year ago brokers were recommending the stock at more than double the price.
The selling has been overdone, bad news is factored in, the business has been rationalised, there is a decent dividend with the only thing remaining is a share buyback programme which the board should consider.
If the latest batch of mega expensive new phones take off, then surely this must give a boost to DC.? Could this be the reason for the small rise today or have the sellers run out of interest? If the share price does bounce, it will be interesting to see if many stop loss buys for leveraged short positions get activated: once the ball gets going the share price can get a momentum of its own.
Just bought 1400 shares thinking that all the bad news is priced in and the results due in two days time may provide a little relief.
The main man is out and the search for a new one is underway.
roll on xmas.
The buzz doesn't say what he paid but must be near the best in this recent retrace.
Today's range 163 to 171p
Many of the smaller brokers liked this a two month ago , David Buiik on his now each morning nick ferrari spot.
Wonder who pays who..... lol
That's the way to make money working for these brokers picking up a fat salary for knowing no more then the ordinary Joe.
Pole Pot had the right idea put them to work in the fields.. :-)
Well I bought in today. It may not be the lowest price but I perceive a much lower risk of the share price going down further compared to the likelihood of a bounce back. Plus my analysis of the fundamentals and dividend yield makes me think that the fall has been over done - probably helped on the way by one off sells from stop losses etc: these should wind out over time.
Not wishing to belittle brokers, but many of them follow the crowd so as not to appear to be the odd one out - I know of one who did exactly that so not to be seen to be different and for his boss to think that he was not doing his job properly! I once trawled through a broker's spread sheet for a different company and was appalled at the number of silly errors that I found - so I always listen to their views with interest but do not follow their advice like a headless chicken.
Two more broker assessments since previous post per HL website which does not have the Investec downgrade - Goldman Sachs neutral with a price target of 190p and Credit Suisse outperform with a target of 280p.
I suppose selling by tracker and closet tracker funds because of the exit from the FTSE 100 is a factor in the share's current weakness, 166p at the moment, and it could cause potential buyers to hold off. That technical situation will come to an end.
Share price seems to me to be discounting a lot including a poor reception for the new Samsung and iPhone, but WDIK.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.