Of the grey brigade and cash rich, of my recent flights this year they probably made up 80% of the cabins so what you say is true, all be it on other carriers as we have no Jet2 service.
I do not know if the area you live in is a barometer of the state of the the economy but no shops shutting here, just opening.
As I live in the South East I have no experience of viewing Jet2 customers but if you are right and there is a downturn then I would expect Jet2 to do well.
If a squeeze comes I can see many struggling before Dart.
I know you have said at much lower prices it is all going to crash but the reverse has happened as I believed it would. Surely you have not been shorting Dart Group?
Not to long away, as I posted on a different board shops are shutting up and not just retails food veg and the like, last time I saw this was before the last ballls up on the markets, made a mental,note to self at the time.
Was also at the airport last week, talk about a chavs holiday outing these lot look like the haven't got 2 pence in there account, where is the money coming from for this continued holidaying?? Chickens will be coming home to roast again soon imho
Savings, most are not saving these days at all it's all on the never never
Jet2 riding the wave for now but how long before the surf fails??
Keeping Calm Mike
I have only been invested since 2005 but have seen the lows with the highs of where we are today, approaching a new high.
I still believe that there is more upside for Dart Group to come but fight hard against sentiment for a share. At the end of the day you have to stand back and take a objective view. That view based on the facts is it is no time to sell, but hold and buy if you are not too exposed to Dart because of the returns it has delivered.
Why do you think the trading update of profits will materially exceed expectations does not justify todays rise?
I understand profit taking but not your reasoning for doing so.
If you buy back in tomorrow or in a few days time after a pull back does that mean you still think Dart is a buy?
Interested in your thoughts.
Looking at last time.
160 at half time and a 70 loss in this period.
WHY DO I NOT think the loss will be as great.
Lets start with last time a 11m fx hit.
Set up costs associated with London and Birmingham that fell in the period ,but without revenue.
Last year in the winter period we flew about 300k holiday flights.
This year I expect DOUBLE that.
That keeps the planes busy as half the seats are holidays.
Today 44 planes from 75 were in the air and a fair few New York trips are on going..
Dart are always cautious but this line is key on page 1.
Since the half year end ,we have seen a further strengthening of customer demand ,particularly for flight only product .We are ahead of expectations.
So looking back at the half year.
Growth at the expense of margin was better than expected. Almost 40% up in all areas.
They say as much "some price investment"
simply put we were buying business............and we new operations that's quite right.
I expect margin to move back to a + position in the second half.
Just add 1% back in there and what a difference...
long term debt has increased as we purchase new planes borrowings up 410m will of course cost us a few bob.
However against it we still have well on the way to a billion in the bank in upfront payments from customers.
So where does this leave us well I think even the revised figures are far too light and in typical DART fashion they will drip the good news out.
The company must be worth 12x earnings with this kind of growth especially in the holiday division.
I see a much slower growth in 18 maybe close to 15% but margins will improve and once Stanstead and Birmingham are fully bedded in ,I think further expansion ( Bristol) cannot be ruled out.
The company is well run and the airline is pretty good at getting flights away.
Always weather exceptions but we don't just cancel.
I think 90p eps could be achieved ( before any of these nonsense) write downs on fx etc.
As such just 11x gets me my 10.00 target and well on the way to a £20.00 target based on full year ending march 21 figures.
Profit of over 300m by then and the no 1 in the UK.
The future is bright and I remain a holder.
We are very close to breaking new ground and about 42 x my first 16p a share investment.
SO WHAT DOES TODAY TELL US
They have HAD to push this statement out as its normally post year end. (April)
How much will we make is the big question?
The forecasts for next year were lower before today. Now they should be at least the same.
I remain of the opinion that 10.00 is fair value but bring forward my timescales.
The last remaining 4x are due to be delivered anytime between Aug 2018 & Jan 2019
The 2+ second hand Boeing 737-800 bought should be delivered and put in to service before end of winter
EI-RUN & EI-RUO
So this summer the fleet should be at 90+ aircraft as follows:
18x = Boeing 737-300's
56x = Boeing 737-800's
G-DRTA/B & EI-RUN/EI-RUO (Aircraft to be re-registered onto UK registrations)
EC-IDT (Leased from Air Europa = Based PMI)
12x Boeing 757-200's
G-POWH (Leased from Titan Airways = Based LBA)
3x = Airbus A321's
G-POWN/M (Leased from Titan Airways = Based STN)
YL-LCV (Leased from Smart Lynx = Based BHX)
1x = Airbus A330-200
G-VYGL (Leased from Air Tanker = Based MAN)
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