Why do you think the trading update of profits will materially exceed expectations does not justify todays rise?
I understand profit taking but not your reasoning for doing so.
If you buy back in tomorrow or in a few days time after a pull back does that mean you still think Dart is a buy?
Interested in your thoughts.
Looking at last time.
160 at half time and a 70 loss in this period.
WHY DO I NOT think the loss will be as great.
Lets start with last time a 11m fx hit.
Set up costs associated with London and Birmingham that fell in the period ,but without revenue.
Last year in the winter period we flew about 300k holiday flights.
This year I expect DOUBLE that.
That keeps the planes busy as half the seats are holidays.
Today 44 planes from 75 were in the air and a fair few New York trips are on going..
Dart are always cautious but this line is key on page 1.
Since the half year end ,we have seen a further strengthening of customer demand ,particularly for flight only product .We are ahead of expectations.
So looking back at the half year.
Growth at the expense of margin was better than expected. Almost 40% up in all areas.
They say as much "some price investment"
simply put we were buying business............and we new operations that's quite right.
I expect margin to move back to a + position in the second half.
Just add 1% back in there and what a difference...
long term debt has increased as we purchase new planes borrowings up 410m will of course cost us a few bob.
However against it we still have well on the way to a billion in the bank in upfront payments from customers.
So where does this leave us well I think even the revised figures are far too light and in typical DART fashion they will drip the good news out.
The company must be worth 12x earnings with this kind of growth especially in the holiday division.
I see a much slower growth in 18 maybe close to 15% but margins will improve and once Stanstead and Birmingham are fully bedded in ,I think further expansion ( Bristol) cannot be ruled out.
The company is well run and the airline is pretty good at getting flights away.
Always weather exceptions but we don't just cancel.
I think 90p eps could be achieved ( before any of these nonsense) write downs on fx etc.
As such just 11x gets me my 10.00 target and well on the way to a £20.00 target based on full year ending march 21 figures.
Profit of over 300m by then and the no 1 in the UK.
The future is bright and I remain a holder.
We are very close to breaking new ground and about 42 x my first 16p a share investment.
SO WHAT DOES TODAY TELL US
They have HAD to push this statement out as its normally post year end. (April)
How much will we make is the big question?
The forecasts for next year were lower before today. Now they should be at least the same.
I remain of the opinion that 10.00 is fair value but bring forward my timescales.
The last remaining 4x are due to be delivered anytime between Aug 2018 & Jan 2019
The 2+ second hand Boeing 737-800 bought should be delivered and put in to service before end of winter
EI-RUN & EI-RUO
So this summer the fleet should be at 90+ aircraft as follows:
18x = Boeing 737-300's
56x = Boeing 737-800's
G-DRTA/B & EI-RUN/EI-RUO (Aircraft to be re-registered onto UK registrations)
EC-IDT (Leased from Air Europa = Based PMI)
12x Boeing 757-200's
G-POWH (Leased from Titan Airways = Based LBA)
3x = Airbus A321's
G-POWN/M (Leased from Titan Airways = Based STN)
YL-LCV (Leased from Smart Lynx = Based BHX)
1x = Airbus A330-200
G-VYGL (Leased from Air Tanker = Based MAN)
Dart Group PLC, the Leisure Travel and Distribution & Logistics group, is pleased to give the following update on trading.
The Group continues to develop and build its businesses. The Board expects Group underlying profit before taxation  for the year ended 31 March 2017 to be ahead of current market expectations, as a result of lower than anticipated winter losses. Looking ahead to the year ending 31 March 2018, forward bookings in the Leisure Travel business for summer 2017 are satisfactory.
Trading at Fowler Welch, our Distribution & Logistics business is promising, as it continues to focus on growing and successfully developing existing and new business opportunities.
Sorry been ignoring the board. A busy month for the Tiger
I think 130 is pretty close ( however I go a tadge higher)
This may just be a temporary boost but prices from Leeds look very strong for 18
80 aircraft in fleet
22 aircraft live
The above shows that we have grown to 80 aircraft of which 22 were flying today mainly from the canaries.
With an early Easter this year I expect a good start for DART GROUP.
Things are looking good for 2018 and my £10.00 target based on EPS of 90/100p by 2020 look very manageable.
Should be about half of EZY revenue which to me shows just how far we have come.
Even with their latest purchases I think our growth is greater......yoy., both historically and in the next year.
I think ours may slow from 40% plus to 15/20% as we look at margin more.
The shares need to build a platform here now and not race ahead too far.
Based on my forecasts and just a 10x rating I expect the shares to be 800p plus and maybe as high as 10.00 upon the year end results ( and how the winter losses shape up)
There is certainly no case to sell ,even based on those weak brokers forecasts.
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