Well Steve More proved correct in hindsight 31/10/17.
Two RNS this morning down nearly 35 %.
No comments on that site ( except the news in margin )
I think that site can influence small AIM share prices .
H2fy17 was a concealed -£9.2m loss. Business model secretly fell off a cliff which is why in truth Uberoi needed so much extra cash.
Average revenue per transaction is crashing on average -25% pa since fy16. It was -35% in fy16. -15% in fy17. Uberoi is now desperately chasing volume from second and third world business so the unit price could fall even faster in fy18 and fy19.
New management will terminate this dire loss-making extra turnover, shut the new offices, fire all the new staff; and relocate or fire existing central London admin staff. Massive restructuring cost in fy20. All paid for by existing holder 50% dilution in October 2019 round of 625m shares @4p with 1 for 10 share consolidation.
Fy20 turnover will be cut (terminated clients) to about £20m to stem the wild trading losses.
1.25 billion shares @4p will be market cap £50m post Oct 19 round i.e. x2.5 fy20 restructured turnover. That valuation will be plenty high enough given the massive exceptional global restructuring loss of about -£15m. Maybe 4p is too high.
EPO is hurtling down a rat-run with a flawed business model. Now slaughtering shareholder value by losing about -£1.7m every month. -£1.7m every month!
Trust bust. Business model flawed. Burning £30m cash in fy18 and fy19 to sign turnover which will cost another £15m to terminate. £45m cash in bin i.e. -7p per share to delete from 14.5p share price =7.5p. Plus the 4p downgrade from slashing turnover in fy20. Target price Oct 2019 restructuring round is 3p to 4p.
MANDATORY SELL at 14.5p or anywhere near.
All imho. Dyor.
"EPO bought Baydonhill at a valuation of x1 turnover and it is wirth x1. Not the x4 implied market valuation. Management conceal the split of fx revenue for this reason but I estimate c£12m of the £30m in fy17. EPO must file the fx accounts at Companies House by 31 March 2018 and dirty EPO left it that late last year.
Valuation correction is £12m x3 = £36m ie -6p per EPO share.
In the unlikely event EPO recover all of the £5m it blundered, that woukd be worth +0.8p ps. Peanuts. The governance disaster of the blunder was the huge problem.
The share price needs to fall -6p now for the fx valuation error. It could rise +0.8p if the unlikely insurance claim succeeds in full.
Knife 1) This -6p fx price error is yet more downward pressure on the falling knife.
Knife 2) H2fy17 loss rocketed to -£9.2m. And this disaster was concealed from the market until after the Oct 17 rescue round, in breach if AiM rule 11.
Knife 3) Average revenue per transaction crashed -35% in fy16; another -15% in fy17; expect -20% in fy18.
Knife 4) overheads will turbo-bluat from £26m to £35m in fy18.
Knife 5) Dirty EPO management are busted for serially false forecasts and misleading the market with late downgrades and apparently deceitful trading statements concealing disasters.
Knife 6) increased losses will lead to disaster restructuring under new management in 2 years. Round @4p and 10 for 1 share consolidation.
Knife 7) Investor genocide. Again (2005 and 2010-17)!
Knife 8) Massive seller overhang now breakeven lie is exposed.
Knife 9) Confidence is broken. Rightly so.
Fy17 actual loss of -£12m is worst in its dire history
£32m below March 15 forecast of +£20m profit
EPO share price is a falling knife to 4p
Only fools are topping up.
Expect eve-of-adminustration 625m shares @4p in Oct 19
Did holders enjoy my predicted disaster 25% dilution? Meanwhile, From ADVFN:
"FY15 series of late and massive downgrades to EPO market expectations:
Feb 2014: +£1.1m profit
Sep 2014: +£0.5m profit
Mar 2015: -£2.3m loss
Aug 2015: -£4.9m loss
Sep 2015: -£8.9m loss
FY16 series of late and massive downgrades to EPO market expectations:
Sep 2014: +£7.5m profit
Mar 2015: +£6.6m profit
Aug 2015: -£0.5m loss
Jan 2016: -£6.5m loss
Mar 2016: PG abandon expectations!
Aug 2016: -£9.5m loss [N+1]
Oct 2016: -£8.2m, boosted by £8.2m unrealised FX gain
FY17 series of late and massive downgrades to EPO market expectations:
Jul 2015: +£19.8m profit
Aug 2015: +£10m profit
Jan 2016: -£2.7m loss
Aug 2016: -£4.8m loss
Oct 2017: -£9.5m loss
Oct 2017: [await actual]
FY18 series of late and massive downgrades to EPO market expectations:
Jan 2016: +£6.0m profit
Aug 2016: +£1.3m profit
Oct 2017: -£17.1m loss [unreliable source: themirror on N+1]
[SS expects multiple downgrades]
FY19 series of late and massive downgrades to EPO market expectations:
Oct 2017: -£4.2m loss [unreliable source: themirror on N+1]
[SS expects -£10.8m multiple downgrades to -£15m]
Now Spank Scubeori has switched the bloated £26m overheads onto turbo-bloat by an extra £7-10m pa to £33-36m pa, the losses will mushroom. After the usual multiple downgrades in only 2 years more funding will be needed. Another 50% downround would give 10p. It could be much worse.
Protect your cash from the apparently crooked serial cash mollestors.
all imho. dyor"
Would of been wise to slice on recent high as ABB last evening between 5 and 7 pm .
Placing @ 20p institutions must hang about and be available to act.
Be nice if they matched it with OO to ordinary PIs
Price Dropped off 15% to 21p.
A large raise guess it a good sign . AIM !!!!
And this type of placing becoming more common not in PIs interest.
News was good in the last results.
You can see cash improved 500K over the last 6 months
They stated 140+ deals in the pipeline
They stated India was SIGNIFICANT.
They stated existing clients are growing
They stated they were on the up, positive and growing. They have cash and they are growing.
All points to a breakout to 50p initially with more news, progress to £1, after which if could eventually hit £2 a share over the coming 2/3 years.
EPO growing as a business
EPO not needing more cash
Cash reserves increased during the past 6 months by 500K
140+ client pipe line
Bank of India is seen as significant
BoA moved ahead with more volume and no longer a pilot
No disaster fund round as predicted by SilkStag aka CaptianMultitosh.
On Tuesday when Steve More made his comments share price was 19.25p ..three days later 26p.
That's a good rise......... more then 30%.
Has anyone worked out how you'd fair if you did opposite to what Share Prophets blog suggested.
Nothing changes here does it SilkStag. Why you have to pretend not to be SilkStag is shameful and embarrassing.
Anyway, lets look at the facts Captian ahoy.
Their losses were smaller than the lagest losses ever records.
The information you posted here, slating, again I might add the company, is all in the public domain. The price fell, as you harped on or years from 40p to 11p. For once you predicted the price, but not because of the following reasons:
1) Falling revenue
2) No business
3) Scraps revenue
4) Fixed fees ending, with no revenue increase from transactions, you said this, remember, again did not happen.
No, because their strategy changed, which prolonged their original timelines of making a profit. Your reasons were non-existant. They also had issues on the 5 million, something you appear to have known abput before it was public? Did you know before it was public?
Now, since 11p, the company has demonstrated its scraps revenue you suggested it had, was 22 million. They processed over 11 billion of cash. Is that a company going down the pan, going to the wall, no one wanting to do business? Maybe pre HANK, maybe, when their revenue was 3 million and less. Since then, revenue will increase, if all goes well to 30 million or so.
Now, yes now again, sorry, they are now on the up. Negative news is out, positive momentum is now on track, revenue is up, transaction revenue is also up with lower fees, something you have kidly pretended you never said. Come to think of it you have come up with many reasons why this company should die, as soon as they reasons die with your sanity, you come up with more reasons.
Now they hit 11p, you now start harping more rubbish and say 4p. When are you going to listen to yourself, the hatred you have to terribly sad.
In the meantime, the stock has broke out, Up, as they said, the trend is up, more news will come and the trend will continue to push this north to 40p once again. If they then show they are on targets, 60p will be seen an dmore to come. They are not going to go away as you hoped. They may have shafted you somehow years ago, but grow up, you can't win all the battles. Shame on you.
"Readers should compare the FY16 Annual Report and 26 October 2016 Final Results RNS with FY14 and FY15.
FY16 is improper and unlawful.
Deceived buyers since 26 October may be entitled to compensation from the company and/or EPO Directors.
The FY16 Annual Report and RNS should be corrected and reissued.
CFO (at least) should be voted off Board by latest 2 December 2016 AGM and fired.
Read Companies Act 2006 s471 then Financial Highlights in EPO Annual Report for FY14, FY15 then FY16 (pages 1 and 5). List what the Directors deleted from FY14 and FY15 so concealed in FY16.
This is heading for a multi-party multi-dimensional mess imho. DYOR."
I have sold out of these some time ago but watching still;
Earthport (AIM: EPO.L), the leading payment network for cross-border payments, is pleased to announce its final results for the year ended 30 June 2016.
Revenues increased 18% to £22.8 million, within the range referenced at the Capital Markets Day held on 27 April 2016 (available at www.earthport.com/investors)
Transactional revenues comprised approximately 91% of total revenue
Adjusted gross margin of 70% resulting in adjusted gross profit of £15.9 million*
Gross margin of 67.4% after impact of warrant charge, resulting in gross profit of £15.3 million
Cash and cash equivalents at 30 June 2016 of £14.4 million and consistent with guidance at the Capital Markets Day
* Impacted by elevated transaction costs related to building resilience of the Earthport network.
Last year the results were out 29 September. They are two weeks late and counting. From ADVFN:
"FY16 forecast £7.5m profit on £30m turnover, growth £11.7m from FY15. After about 5 downgrades market expects FY16 to report -£15.5m loss on £23m turnover, growth £3.7m. SS expects 6th downgrade for FY16 -£18m loss on £22m turnover, growth £2.7m.
If I'm right that FY16 will tailspin to a loss -£25.5m below forecast (due to rocketing costs and a £5m blunder) and turnover growth stalls -£8m below forecast (due to management failing to work key accounts) ... then, readers, how can any holder expect this management team to make them money?
Seriously, they are not just bad or poor they are arogant decei*ful profligate ivory-tower big-institution bungling-f***wits who don't know how to make, or respect other people's, money?
MANDATORY SELL or lose 65% to 4p disaster funding rounds. Up to you. Failure is obvious.
All im(wise)o. Dyor."
"EPO finally admit 27-4-16 that their value proposition is limited and declining in the digital economy. Revenue per transaction in financial years:
2015 £4.78 so +7%
2016 F£3.30 so -31%
Admin costs explode +35% in FY16 (2014,15,16 profligate £14.4m, £19.9m, SSf£27m) but revenue per transaction plummeting -31% in FY16. In the words of Die Hard, EPO holders 'just got b**t-***ked live on national television".
Serious strategic problem. Wildly out-of-control cost base looks fundamentally flawed given falling perceived value of EPO service.
The journey of EPO has not been without its trials - but they didn't pick an easy business to enter.
Further, the recent loss of £5m from a potential corporate fraud in its FX subsidiary is of course very disappointing. Banking and the occasional fraud - who would have guessed?
However, the simple reality is that these guys are growing the top line, adding new customers and building "sticky" transactional revenues that in due course, will produce very strong returns as the volumes grow.
This share has not been one for the faint of heart, however, it does have substantial potential and at the current price looks to be a reasonable punt. They have enough cash to continue this global growth strategy and so long as they keep increasing the top line and lock out the risk through improving their systems, I suspect that they will also be able to raise further finance if needs be in the future to remove the doubting Tom's.
At this price, I think this could easily be a 10X return in 3 years (so long as they improve their risk management).
Not sure how management are being rewarded at all, if everything else you write is correct then the options aren't likely to be ever worth much are they?
Strange a director being so foolish to buy all those share too!
"Expectation extracts from a shareholder bulletin this afternoon:
1) Panmure to resign as joint broker and resign as Nomad
2) fy16 loss after tax -£18m]. Of which -£5m is the Baydonhill FX blunder
3) fy16 turnover £22.5m [+17%. Too low to support market valuation]
4) Block of new share options to reward management for failure [vile]
5) Cash 1-1-16 was £24m. Deduct £5m for blunder. By time to sign full year accounts in Oct/Nov, EPO will burn £1.1m x 10 = £11m. So cash left will be 24 - 5 - 11 = £8m. That is not enough to fund EPO for 12 months (need £13m) so EPO will need a funding round in autumn 2016 to sign off the accounts as a going concern.
... It would be no surprise to see EPO retreat to its 2010 turnaround price of 10p ... confidence in EPO is busted so we expect failure ... expect the price slide to continue, especially when the market works out that a disaster funding round is likely required due to outrageous trading losses and a £5m governance blunder."
BAIL OR DROWN ANOTHER 10.25p down to 7p. Up to you.
All imho and DYOR."
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