- accept that I might be overly biased though when I did put my thoughts on paper it didn't convince me there was enough probability of upside to be interested.
you quote debt as 5m at end of July. It was 18m per the finals RNS in September.
yes they have CASH flow but they spent it all the time and of course now there is a further up to 8 m CASH costs from the D'or - albeit over several years.
I really didn't like their disguised profit warning.
if you remove a 3m loss making business - profits should be increasing by 3m!!
also D'or lost 3m last year but since then they lost 2 major contracts so I think the pro-rata losses will be larger - albeit not for the full year.
I think EPS will struggle to get > 10p and that I think is a psychological barrier which might prevent much share price > 100p.
Anyway no point going on - I;ve made my decision. it doesn't meet my criteria so onto the next one!
I've held these since 2009 - through some really rough times about 7 yrs ago, when they cut the dividend in order (if I remember correctly) to pay down some debt. I'm pretty happy with the cautious management style and they do seem to have an ability to remodel the company as necessary...
As I bought at 25p, this has been a good 'un for me. Should I rebalance? Probably... but I can't see anything I'd particularly want to buy instead at the moment. Any suggestions welcome!
Thrifty -- are your comments overly biased toward not wanting to invest in the company?
Looking at the track record of Finsbury it's pretty decent over the last 5 years.
The one area I'd have concern with is the CEO pay which is far too high for the size of the company, but the rest of the figures look respectable enough :-
If you go straight to your cash concerns, the Net Cash from Operations has grown consistently from £10.2M in 2013 to £18.93M in July 2017 -- that's an 85.6% growth or approx 17% a year.
The bulk of the cash in the last three years has been on investing in new activities, as you noted.
Should this slow down, which is what you might expect, the cash will fall heavily positive to the bottom line.
But despite this heavy investment, the cash flow has either been slightly +ve or slightly -ve in the last years - so no major cash loss demonstrated so far.
In terms of the companies borrowings, they seem quite modest at £5.8M at the end of July -- compared to a an after tax profit of over £10M. Most companies have borrowings well above two to three or even higher ratio of borrowings to after tax profits. So no major concerns here.
The earnings per share over the last 5 years has been pretty patchy I agree and is currently at the higher end at 7.1p a share but granted on a much higher revenue, so yes it's getting harder to maintain margins in such a competitive industry.
It's certainly not a stock to bet your shirt on, but a modest investment shouldn't be too concerning, particularly as the EPS is forecasting a jump to over 10p in June next year.
Turning to the dividend, this has grown well above inflation over the last 5 years.
It grew 33% between 2013 and 2014
150% to 2015
12% to 2016
and another 7% to 2017
It's forecast to rise another 10% into 2018.
These are inflation busting (no destroying) numbers and had you held the stock through that period you would have done quite well compared to most FTSE companies.
Looking forward it's all down to Mary Berry isn't it thrifty?
Games -- small investment here -- considering an increase and it would be my only low margin investment.
so FIF close a business losing 3m a year
and yet 'adjusted' profit expectation for the year is unchanged???
surely this is a profit warning?
one would expect ongojng profits to be 3m p.a. higher
with one off exceptional costs in the current year.....
FIF have decent EPS forecasts but...
- these forecasts have been in steady decline over the last 12 months
- there is a 10% Minority Interest in the more profitable business
- CASH flow needs to cover debt and pension deficit payments
- Capital Expenditure has been huge in recent years and yet margins have only just being maintained. it is all well and good making profits - but it is CASH flow that counts and there is no record here of CASH flow. The recent closure of D'or is also going to require more CASH outflow in the short term.
- the retail environment is very competitive and that doesn't look like to change anytime soon.
the average free CASH flow over the last 6 years is c.6p a share
given the competitive nature of the market I think a 10% CASH yield could be argued but more likely an 8% CASH yield is reasonable giving a value calculation of c.72p - maybe 80p
given the spread on the shares and the limited downside (20% to 25%) I don't think this is a good shorting opportunity but IMHO it is certainly not the attractive business that historic 10p eps initially indicates.
"Baker Finsbury Food kicks the week off, while Babcock and small-cap winners Keyword Studios, MaxCyte and Attraqt also report.Monday 18 SeptemberThe week kicks off with full-year results from baker LSE:FIF:Finsbury Food. It's already said it ..."
A small addition of 24,000 to hopefully take advantage of any upturn.
Latest trading update was very positive.
Recent Director purchases were very encouraging.
Closure of Grain D'Or will be sad for job losses, but closing a loss making plant is the only common sense move.
The sp in my opinion should not be this low, and I can only attribute it to lack of PI interest.
The wildly popular cookery show Great British Bake Off returned to UK television screens this week to great fanfare.
Despite some concern over the move away from the BBC this season, the charm of the iconic big white tent (where the baking contest takes place) appears to remain unscathed.
But the positive influence of quintessentially British shows like Downton Abbey and Bake Off could be about more than just food for the soul. They may have also contributed to a sharp acceleration in the UKs food and drink exports to China in the past two years.
There has been a particularly steep climb in goods relating to afternoon tea.
In 2016, tea exports from the UK to China rose by 63%, and milk powder exports increased by 134%. Cake exports climbed 26% and spring water leapt by 139%, according to the Food and Drink Federation.
"Since January, when I drew attention to stake-building in this AIM-listed British potatoes and daffodils supplier LSE:PIL:Produce Investments, its shares have risen from 175p over 200p and notably, a new chairman is accumulating them up to ..."
I am not so sure whether Finsbury will continue to prosper.
Input prices may rise and sales of luxury cakes may falter
when Brexit begins to bite. I sold yesterday at 137p, now
now looking at Faripoint where the share price looks
Update from Panmure this morning, taken from Research Tree:
"FIF has delivered FY16 results slightly ahead of expectations. The results attest to FIFs evolution, over the seven years of the current executive management teams tenure, into the UKs leading speciality baked goods manufacturer achieved through a consistent and unrelenting focus around: (1) customer/ consumer needs; (2) new product innovation; and (3) investment in a high quality asset base to drive low cost/efficiency and support operational excellence. The shares have been very strong recently (c.10% in the last month, thereby delivering +20% outperformance relative to the wider stockmarket over the past year) and have pushed beyond our 127p TP. Combining this with the lack of an upgrade to our FY17E PBTA, the shares may therefore pause for breath. We remain however very positive on FIF given: (1) its dominant scale to capture the available long-term growth opportunities; (2) its valuation discount (c.15%) to its small/mid cap peers; and (3) the likely M&A momentum/ optionality as an added investment attraction."
Yes you are right there. It is unacceptable that the press release deliberately obscures from shareholders what the exact criteria are for the share awards. Presumably the Renumeration Committee is too embarassed for them to be publicised in a press release. There are some good comments on this in Richard Beddard's article dated 26th November. Just for the record the secretive Renumeration Committee comprises just two people, Raymond Duignan and Edward Beale. Raymond Duignan is chairman but I imagine committee meetings are quite easy to run when there are only two people involved. I would call on institutional shareholders to express their disapproval of this aspect of Finsbury's business.
The directors' shares awards (1.2m shares) announced today seem rather
generous when put against the Company's profits. The linked Performance
Targets are vague and to me feel almost intentionally unclear.
Snouts somewhat quickly in the trough...?
Looking at London Finance & Invest (LFI).
Current market cap only around 11million, but hold 10 million shares in Finsbury. Market price around 36/37p, net asset value in June was just over 50p and with increase in Finsbury since then I would estimate net asset value at nearer 55p. Yield around 2.7%. Just seems large discount to NAV and maybe a cheaper way to buy Finsbury as long as you rate the other investments within LFI.
"This time last year LSE:FIF:Finsbury Food Group launched a cost-cutting drive, the results of which are starting to make an impact on income. With a successful acquisition under its belt, Finsbury is well-positioned to maintain the momentum that ..."
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